What Is XRP? What Are the Chances of an XRP ETF Getting Approved?

As of June 26, 2025, XRP price At $2.12780, with a market capitalization of $127.18 billion, it firmly ranks fourth in the cryptocurrency market cap list. This digital asset, created by the Ripple Labs team in 2012, stands at a historic turning point—Bloomberg senior analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas recently assessed that the probability of XRP spot ETF approval has surged to 95% by 2025. If true, a flood of billions of dollars in capital may pour in, reshaping the landscape of the crypto market.

Underlying Logic: The Technical Core and Market Positioning of XRP

XRP Not a typical cryptocurrency, but a digital asset designed for global payments, operating on the decentralized XRP Ledger (XRPL) blockchain. Its core features address the pain points of traditional finance:

• No mining required: A total of 10 billion coins generated at once, with extremely low energy consumption.
• Speed Revolution: Transactions are confirmed in 3 - 5 seconds, crushing Bitcoin’s 40 minutes and Ethereum’s 16 seconds.
• Cost advantage: Single transaction fee is approximately 0.00001 XRP (almost free)
• Bridge currency: acts as a “intermediary currency” in international remittances, solving liquidity issues in multi-currency exchange.

Financial institutions adopt XRP as a value pivot. Over 300 institutions, including Santander Bank and American Express, have connected to RippleNet, utilizing it as an alternative to the SWIFT system for cross-border settlement in seconds, with fees reduced to a fraction of traditional channels.

Key Game, Progress and Regulatory Fog of XRP ETF

Starting from January 2025, institutions such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares will intensively submit applications for XRP spot ETFs. The market’s attention is focused on two key dates:

• April 16, 2025: Key ruling date for Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit, the outcome could clear the biggest obstacle for ETF.
• October 17, 2025: SEC’s final decision deadline for Grayscale XRP Trust conversion to ETF

The core concern of the SEC is whether XRP is considered a security. In 2023, the court ruled that “XRP held by retail investors is not a security,” but regulatory ambiguity has not been completely eliminated. However, three positive signals have increased the approval rate to 95%:

1. SEC’s changing attitude: Recent frequent technical communications with application organizations are seen as a “clear green light.”
2. Strengthening of commodity attributes: XRP futures regulated by the CFTC have been traded, solidifying its positioning as a commodity.
3. Favorable political environment: Trump appointed crypto-friendly Mark Uyeda to head the SEC, and it was announced in March 2025 that XRP would be included in the US cryptocurrency reserves.

Analyst Nate Geraci asserts: “If BlackRock joins the application, the XRP ETF process will accelerate significantly.”

Market Fragmentation, Price and Ecological Impact After ETF Approval

Once approved, the XRP ETF could trigger a chain reaction:

• Capital Flow: Analysts predict an influx of institutional funds between $4.3 billion and $8.4 billion in the first year.
• Price catalyst: Short-term target 4.60 - 5.00 USD, doubling from current levels; long-term bullish to 6 USD (2026)
• Ecological Expansion: Ripple partners with Archax to advance the tokenization of hundreds of millions of dollars in real-world assets on the XRPL, giving rise to new scenarios such as DeFi and NFTs.

However, XRP still needs to face challenges: the risk of SEC appeal delays, coming from Solana The competition of ETFs (with a pass rate of 95%) and the concentrated nature of Ripple Labs holding 37.24 billion XRP are being questioned.

The future is here, the long-term value of XRP and its role in financial infrastructure

Beyond short-term price fluctuations, the ultimate battleground for XRP lies in reconstructing the global payment network:

• Technological moat: XRPL processes 1,500 transactions per second, which is 100 times that of Ethereum.
• Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) bridge: Multiple countries are piloting the use of XRPL for fiat cross-chain interoperability.
• Compliance process: After winning the lawsuit against the SEC in 2023, exchanges like Coinbase have relisted XRP, restoring liquidity comprehensively.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has emphasized: “The question is no longer ‘whether’ to adopt blockchain, but ‘who’ will control this process.”

Conclusion: The Critical Point of New Financial Agreements

The essence of XRP is the highway of the value internet - completing cross-border settlements in 3 seconds at near-zero cost. If the XRP ETF is launched in 2025, it will become the gateway for institutional funds to enter compliantly, further promoting the upgrade of RippleNet from an interbank system to a global liquidity protocol.

When the Trump administration included XRP in the national crypto reserves, and the SWIFT system faced a dimensional shock of 1500 transactions per second, a silent revolution in financial infrastructure has already begun. The regulatory fog will eventually clear, and what XRP anchors is a future of frictionless value flow.