XRP ETF News: Approval Odds Soar to 93% — Could It Become the Biggest Catalyst for the Crypto Market in 2025?

As the crypto market continues to heat up, the probability of approval for the XRP spot ETF has soared to 93% on the Polymarket prediction platform, setting a new historical high. This figure has jumped significantly from 68% in early May, reflecting strong market confidence in a regulatory shift.

ETF application process accelerates: multiple giants compete for the trillion market

The SEC is currently intensively reviewing multiple institutions. XRP Spot ETF application, key dynamics include:

• Franklin Templeton’s Franklin XRP Fund will encounter its interim approval deadline on June 17, closely adjacent to the settlement deadline of the Ripple legal case (June 16), with the market anticipating a “double benefit.”
• WisdomTree’s XRP Trust has entered the SEC’s 240-day review process (Release No. 34-103124), becoming the first U.S. spot XRP ETF proposal to undergo formal review.
• Other heavyweight applicants include 21Shares, Bitwise, and Grayscale, forming an institutional “hunting” situation.

Legal battlefield breakthrough: countdown to settlement starts

Legal progress has become the core prerequisite for the approval of the ETF, with a key date set for June 16:

• The U.S. Court of Appeals has ordered the SEC to submit a progress report on the settlement with Ripple by that date. If both parties reach a settlement and receive the judge’s support (Indicative Ruling), it could terminate the years-long lawsuit.
• Previously, Judge Analisa Torres rejected the SEC’s initial settlement request, stating that it was “procedurally improper and did not demonstrate alignment with the public interest.” If the second request fails again, Ripple may be forced to continue appealing, increasing the uncertainty around the ETF.
• Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty submitted an opinion letter to the SEC’s crypto working group, emphasizing that XRP should not be classified as a security, striking at the core of regulatory contradictions.

Price Impact: ETF May Trigger XRP to Break Historical Highs

If the ETF is approved, institutional funds pouring in may reshape valuations:

• Short-term goal: After breaking through the resistance level of $2.30, it is expected to challenge the May high of $2.6553 and then aim for the historical peak of $3.5505.
• Mid-term potential: Bloomberg analysts predict that the ETF could drive XRP up to $3 - $5 in Q3 2025.
• Deflationary support: The XRPL on-chain transaction fee burn mechanism increases by 25% annually, continuously exerting supply tightening pressure.

Technical analysis shows: Currently, XRP is trading at $2.27 (closing price on June 9), although it is below the 50-day moving average, the RSI value of 45.93 indicates limited downside potential, and breakout momentum is accumulating.

Conclusion: Two weeks to set the tone for the 2025 crypto market landscape.

June 16 - 17 will become the “Judgment Week” for XRP: a dual window of legal settlement and ETF approval could trigger the inflow of tens of billions of dollars. Even if short-term obstacles arise, the technological iteration of the Ripple ecosystem and the breakthrough in regulation have laid a long-term value foundation for XRP.