Resumen de Jinshi: Previsión institucional sobre la decisión de tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal de EE. UU. - Puede haber una reducción de 25 puntos básicos, el gráfico de puntos se convierte en el foco de atención, Powell podría adoptar una postura dovish
Barclays: Expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, with a total of 75 basis points cut this year and 125 basis points cut next year. Powell may signal further interest rate cuts, but will not provide clear guidance on the timing and pace of future rate cuts. 2. Yuexin Bank: Expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, lower core PCE inflation and GDP growth forecasts, and raise unemployment rate forecasts. The dot plot will indicate a total of 75bp rate cuts this year and 100bp rate cuts next year. The statement will emphasize data dependence. 3. Nomura Securities: Expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot plot indicates an additional 50bp rate cut this year and 100bp rate cut next year. The initial impact on the US dollar will be a 50-point pump. Powell is likely to turn dovish, emphasizing the deterioration of the labor market and reversing the rise in the US dollar. 4. Bank of America: Expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, and the US dollar may subconsciously rise. The dot plot will indicate a total of 75bp rate cuts this year. Recent trends in the labor market make Powell inclined not to push back against market pricing and open the door to dovish interpretations. 5. Natixis: Expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, with a total of 50bp rate cuts this year and 150bp rate cuts next year. Also, there is a clear risk of a more pronounced early rate cut cycle, leading to an increase in the forecast for a third 25 basis points rate cut in 2024. 6. DBS Bank: Expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week and cut interest rates by 150 basis points by the end of 2025. The market's reflected magnitude of rate cuts seems excessive, and aggressive pricing may end up disappointing and triggering panic. 7. Nordea Bank: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time, and a 50 basis points rate cut would send the wrong signal. The current baseline expectation is for rate cuts once per quarter, and a 25 basis points rate cut remains the most likely path forward.
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Resumen de Jinshi: Previsión institucional sobre la decisión de tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal de EE. UU. - Puede haber una reducción de 25 puntos básicos, el gráfico de puntos se convierte en el foco de atención, Powell podría adoptar una postura dovish