On June 5, traders cut bets on future interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and no longer fully priced in expectations for another 25 basis points of rate cuts this year. Money markets were pricing in a further rate cut of just 23 basis points before December, compared to 32 basis points ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday. Short-term bonds led the decline, with the two-year German bunds yield rising as much as 7 basis points to 1.87%. Earlier, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank's interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end.

BlockBeats news, on May 8, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, marking the fourth rate cut in this round of easing, in line with market expectations. (Jin10)

WeBank will adjust the personal deposit interest rates, with the annual interest rates for 5-year, 3-year, 2-year, and 1-year deposits uniformly set at 1.60%, down by 40 BP to 1.40% compared to before, approaching the level of state-owned banks, and some even lower than joint-stock banks.

Monetary policy statement cut rates by 25BP, making the policy less tight; inflation expectations adjusted upward to 2.3%, expected to remain at 1.9% in the future; economic growth rate expectations revised downward, Lagarde stated that data will affect Interest Rate decisions, inflation target may be achieved by 2026, economic risks point downward; negative impact on tariff policy, expenditure plans may promote growth, market reacts with short-term rise in the euro.

The article reports that sources revealed that the European Central Bank may no longer describe its monetary policy as "restrictive" in the Interest Rate decision in March. The European Central Bank is very likely to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, a level of Interest Rate that no longer quite matches the label. This idea indicates that policymakers have begun to consider when to stop cutting interest rates and whether to stand pat in the process.

The Federal Reserve (has cut interest rates 3 times this year, a total of 100BP)1. Intrerest Rate Moves: Hawkish rate cut by 25BP, Harmack votes for no rate cut; Powell said that it is in or close to slowing down interest rate cuts. 2. Economic Expectations: Raise the economic outlook and Intrerest Rate expectations, and cut interest rates next year. Most officials see inflation risks skewed to the upside. Japan's Central Bank (a total of 1 interest rate hike this year, a total of 15BP) 1. Intrerest Rate Moves: Third consecutive pause in rate hikes, with one member supporting the rate hike. The governor said that interest rate hikes will continue, but the outcome of the spring wage negotiations needs to be observed. 2. Economic outlook: The impact of the Forex movement is greater than ever, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy is high, which could have a big impact. Central Bank of the United Kingdom (a total of 2 interest rate cuts this year, a total of 50BP)1. Intrerest Rate Move: 6-3 vote not to cut interest rates, divergence more than expected. The statement retained the talk of a "gradual" rate cut, which the market interpreted as a hint of a quarterly rate cut. 2.

On December 19th, Jin10 Data reported that New Zealand's GDP fell by 1.0% in the third quarter, and the economy has entered a slump. Henry Russell, economist at ANZ Bank, stated that for the next monetary policy meeting at the end of February next year, the market is now weighing whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points, instead of 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Considering the obvious rebound in high-frequency data, ANZ Bank still leans towards a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. However, any dovish surprises in future data could lead to a 75 basis point interest rate cut.

1. Barclays: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and no longer use the phrase 'sufficiently restrictive', the statement may reiterate data dependence. It is expected to continue cutting interest rates by 25 basis points before June next year. 2. HSBC: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, unlikely to cut by 50 basis points. The phrase 'sufficiently restrictive' may be changed to 'gradually remove restrictions if the outlook and forecasts are aligned'. 3. Nordea: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and may remove the phrase 'ensure that the policy interest rate has sufficient restrictiveness when necessary'. Economic and inflation forecasts for next year are expected to be revised downward. 4. ING: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and may soften the phrase 'maintain sufficiently restrictive policy whenever necessary'. The latest forecast shows that the inflation target will be reached earlier next year. 5.

On December 12, Jin10 Data reported that the Central Bank of Switzerland unexpectedly increased its easing measures today, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, putting pressure on the Swiss franc. Previously, the market generally expected the Swiss Central Bank to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points. After the interest rate decision was announced, the Swiss franc fell by about 0.6% against the euro, further moving away from the near decade-high reached last month. Officials from the Swiss Central Bank stated in a statement, 'The Swiss Central Bank is still willing to actively participate in the forex market when necessary. The Swiss Central Bank will continue to closely follow the situation and adjust monetary policy when necessary to ensure that inflation remains within the range consistent with medium-term price stability.' This is also the largest interest rate cut by the Swiss Central Bank in the current cycle. Karsten, Chief Economist of the Swiss Bank,

Jinshi data, December 12 news, Citigroup released a report, indicating that the severity of South Korea's economic sentiment deterioration is more serious than expected this month, and slightly lowered the GDP forecast for South Korea for the next two years by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1% and 1.5% respectively. The bank slightly lowered the GDPrise forecast for the end of this year in South Korea by 0.1 percentage point, to a quarterly rise of 0.3%, while raising next year's first quarter GDPrise forecast by 0.1 percentage point, to a quarterly rise of 0.6%. Looking ahead to the first quarter of next year, the bank expects South Korea to adopt an expansionary policy combination, including the Central Bank of South Korea reducing interest rates to 2.75% in mid-January, and the government proposing an additional budget of 30 trillion won (equivalent to about 1.1% of next year's GDP). The bank expects the Central Bank of South Korea to cut interest rates by 25 BP in January, April, July, and October next year, with the final Intrerest Rate expected to be 2%.

Jin10 data May 20th, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the Benchmark Interest Rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations.

Westpac economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will drop the official cash Intrerest Rate to 3.75% tomorrow, but are optimistic about the pace of future rate cuts. They believe that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may accelerate the adjustment of the Intrerest Rate to a neutral level, and even lower the OCR to 3% before mid-2025. It is expected that in the April assessment, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may once again lower by 50 basis points.

Andrew Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of England, expressed support for the Central Bank's significant 50 basis point interest rate cut last week, believing that the demand situation is weak and businesses are struggling to raise prices. It may be necessary to further loosen policies to prevent the fragility of pricing power from seeping into lower inflation. Mann was originally one of the most vocal hawks, but it seems different now, and she believes that a larger interest rate cut would be a better communication tool.

On January 7th, Jinshi data, it was found that many wealth management companies, including Minsheng Wealth Management, CMB Wealth Management, Huaxia Wealth Management, and Bank of China Wealth Management, have recently announced the downward adjustment of performance comparison benchmarks for some wealth management products, with some products being lowered by more than 100BP. Many wealth management companies stated that the performance comparison benchmark is based on past investment experience and the judgment of market fluctuations during the existence period of wealth management products, and is set for the investment objectives of wealth management products. The performance comparison benchmark does not represent the future performance and actual returns of wealth management products, nor is it a commitment by wealth management companies to the returns of wealth management products.

Golden Ten Data reported on December 31 that in terms of RRR cuts, Xiongyuan expects that the RRR may be cut 2~3 times in 2025, with a range of 50~100BP. Referring to past experience, the economic rise itself needs to be supported by the release of medium and long-term funds through RRR cuts, which have been cut 1~2 times a year since 2020, with a range of 50~100BP. In terms of interest rate cuts, Xiongyuan is expected to cut interest rates by about 40BP or even higher, mainly because the current Intrerest Rate level measured by the "Real Intrerest Rate-CPI" is about 3.4%, which is still at a high level, and further interest rate cuts in 2025 are still necessary. (per warp)

On December 25th, Jinshi data news, the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Mexico, Heath, stated that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Mexico may discuss a rate cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points at its next decision in February next year. However, he warned that the uncertainty of U.S. trade is increasing. Heath said the final decision will depend on the situation at the meeting. Since the beginning of the year, the Central Bank has already lowered interest rates by 25 basis points after starting a loose monetary policy cycle. The Central Bank stated last week that with inflation continuing to slow down, they are open to further rate cuts. However, Heath warned that the possibility of tariffs on goods imported from Mexico by the U.S. is increasing uncertainty. He said that if Trump (in his inauguration speech on January 20) does not announce any major disruptions and if inflation meets expectations, as long as there are no unexpected shocks, discussions before the decision in February may be between a rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points. However, even if discussions take place, a larger adjustment

Jinshi data, as of December 17, the yields of major interbank Intrerest Rate bonds rose rapidly, with the yield of the 10-year national bond '24 coupon bond 11' rising by 1.75bp to 1.73%, the yield of the 10-year national development bond '24 national development 15' rising by 2.25bp to 1.8050%, and the yield of the 30-year national bond '24 special national bond 06' rising by 1.99bp to 1.97%.

The political bureau meeting proposed a "moderately loose monetary policy", which may adopt a combination of monetary and fiscal policies similar to those during 2008-2010. The framework will shift from cross-cycle to countercyclical regulation. It is expected that in 2025, the magnitude of a single RRR cut and interest rate cut under the monetary policy may not be less than 50bp and 20bp, respectively, and may be further increased depending on the economic conditions.

Jinshi data news on December 10th, the main Interbank Interest Rate bond yield reduction widened, the yield of the active bond "24 coupon-bearing national bond 11" with a 10-year maturity decreased by 2.5bp to 1.88%, hitting a new historical low; the yield of the active bond "24 special national bond 06" with a 30-year maturity decreased by 3.5bp to 2.0750%.

1. Interest rate expectations: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% at this meeting, the third consecutive meeting. At present, the federal funds rate futures show that the market expects a 28.4% probability of a rate cut in June, pricing in a cumulative rate cut of 78bp for the whole of this year. 2. Voting ratio: At the last meeting, the members unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate unchanged, but Governor Waller opposed the balance sheet reduction adjustment. The meeting is expected to remain unanimous, but Waller may vote against it if the pace of balance sheet reduction changes. 3. Pace of balance sheet reduction: Pay attention to whether there will be any adjustments to the pace of balance sheet reduction. It is expected to maintain the pace of balance sheet reduction in March, that is, to maintain the upper limit of US debt reduction at $5 billion per month, and the upper limit of MBS reduction at $35 billion per month. 4. Wording of the statement: It is necessary to pay attention to the relevant comments on the economic outlook in the statement, and whether the wording of "increased uncertainty about the economic outlook" in March will be adjusted to reflect the increased uncertainty

Jin10 data reported on April 10th, the interbank major interest rate bond yields generally rose at the beginning of the session, the yield of the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Guokai 05" rose by 3.75bp to 1.7050%, the yield of the 10-year government bond "25 coupon government bond 04" rose by 3bp to 1.66%, and the yield of the 30-year government bond "24 special government bond 06" rose by 3.5bp to 1.86%.

Jin10 data on April 9 reported that Barclays economists stated in a report that the European Central Bank may lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points on April 17, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. They indicated that this expected decision would be reasonable as inflation continues to slow down, approaching the European Central Bank's mid-term target of 2%, and the downside risks facing economic growth will become reality. They mentioned that the European Central Bank may continue to describe the risks to the inflation outlook as two-sided, maintaining a cautious stance, avoiding providing policy guidance for future decisions, and adhering to a meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach. Barclays expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting until October, at which point the deposit rate will reach 1.25%.

On March 20, Jinshi Data reported that on Wednesday local time, the Central Bank of Brazil raised interest rates by 100 basis points for the third consecutive time to 14.25%, the highest since 2016, in line with expectations, and the rate decision was unanimously approved. The Central Bank of Brazil maintains its previous forward guidance and indicated that the rate hike will be smaller at the next policy meeting as it is monitoring signs of economic slowdown.

On March 12th, Jinshi data reported that the Central Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, reducing the Interest Rate from 3.00% to 2.75%.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 12 that on March 12, at the beginning of the interbank market, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond "24 interest-bearing treasury bond 11" fell 1bp to 1.855%; The 10-year "25 CDB 05" fell 0.5bp to 1.8875%.

British Petroleum is changing its strategy under pressure from activist investor Elliott Management, abandoning its renewable energy plan to invest $10 billion annually in oil and gas production, cutting renewable energy spending, selling $20 billion in assets to boost stock prices. The CEO said the capital would be reallocated to drive rise and cost efficiency.

On January 29, 2025, the first Intrerest Rate resolution was announced. The Central Bank of Canada lowered the interest rate by 25 BP to 3.00%, which is in line with market expectations and marks the sixth consecutive rate cut at a meeting. The previous two meetings both cut interest rates by 50 BP.

Golden data January 1st news, CICC research report pointed out that it is expected that the operating stability of the banking industry will decrease the pressure of the net interest margin (narrowing by about 10-15bp for the whole year), and the debt disposal work will help repair the balance sheet (the net non-performing loan generation rate is stable), and the bank's revenue and profit will continue to show stability. Looking ahead, the monetary policy is moderately loose, with an expected symmetrical interest rate cut of 40-60bp, and there is also a 100bp space for reserve reduction. 1) The high dividend strategy is still the main logic for the trading of bank stocks in 2025, following the level and certainty of the dividend yield. 2) Targets with stable or marginally improved expectations in the region where follows are located. 3) H-share performance is expected to be better than A-shares, mainly due to the attractiveness of the dividend yield for asset allocation funds. 4) The effects of incremental policies have appeared, and follow banks with a higher proportion of market-oriented funding demand.

Jinshi Data News on December 19th, US Intrerest Rate futures priced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by about 49 basis points in 2025, which is close to the 50 basis points predicted by the Federal Reserve's dot plot. The market priced a rate cut of 75 basis points before the Intrerest Rate decision was announced.

On December 11, Canada's Central Bank cut interest rates sharply for the second time in a row this month, and hinted that policymakers are ready to slow down the pace of monetary easing. The bank cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.25%, bringing borrowing costs to the upper end of their expected range for a neutral Intrerest Rate. However, they also hinted that there could be another smaller rate cut in 2025 after the large cut expected by the market and most economists. Officials dropped language from previous statements that said they expected to further drop borrowing costs. "In the case of a large drop in the policy Intrerest Rate, we expect the monetary policy to take a more gradual approach if the economy is broadly in line with expectations," Central Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said in a prepared speech. ”

On December 11, Jinshi data reported that the Central Bank of Canada lowered the policy interest rate from 3.75% to 3.25%, a reduction of 50 basis points for the second consecutive month, which is in line with market expectations. The cumulative interest rate cut this year is 175 basis points.

1. Goldman Sachs: Expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the reasons for easing policy are strengthened by economic slowdown, rising unemployment rates, and Q3 GDP data lower than expected. 2. Bank of Canada: Expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points due to weak economic background, a rise in unemployment rates by a full percentage point compared to a year ago, while the interest rate is still high. 3. Bank of Montreal: Expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the Bank of Canada is not so worried about the risk of rekindling inflation with aggressive easing measures, but rather concerned about insufficient easing measures. 4. ING: Expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, while a more conservative 25 basis point cut could be interpreted as concerns about whether the Fed will ease policy. 5. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points due to a weak labor market. Bullish on USD/CAD with a target of 1.4550, policy divergence supports the Canadian dollar to continue to decline. 6.

The main Intrerest Rate bond yield in the interbank market is rising rapidly, with the yield of the 10-year national bond "24 coupon bond 11" rising by 1.35bp, the yield of the 30-year national bond "24 special bond 06" rising by 1.6bp, and the yield of the active 20-year national bond "24 special bond 05" rising by 2bp.

Shell is considering an acquisition of BP, but may wait to decide until after a fall in stock prices and oil prices. Shell's market capitalization is as high as £149 billion, which is double that of BP. A successful acquisition would make Shell a global energy supergiant, but it would face strict regulatory scrutiny. Shell may wait for bidders to act first, assessing the situation as a precaution.

Jin10 data reported on April 28 that multiple fund companies have received notifications from index companies regarding the reduction of index authorization fees. The reduction plan consists of three parts: first, the annual basis point rate is lowered. After the adjustment, the basis point rates for stock index ETFs and over-the-counter funds are 0.024% and 0.016%, respectively, while the basis point rates for bond index ETFs and over-the-counter funds are both 0.008%. The basis point rate for enhanced products is set at 80% of the corresponding product type. Second, the quarterly collection minimum is lowered; for those with a quarterly collection minimum exceeding 20,000 yuan, it is uniformly reduced to 20,000 yuan. Third, for other types of indices (bond index, interbank certificate index, public sale fund index, multi-asset index, etc.) and stock index products with a quarterly average net asset value of less than 100 million yuan, there is no quarterly collection minimum, and the actual amount collected is based on the basis point rate. Before this reduction, the index usage fee was generally 3 BP, and after the reduction, the index usage fee is generally set at 80%.

Jin10 data on April 7 reported that UBS stated in a report that global tariff models estimate that global economic growth could be dragged down by 50 to 100 basis points. UBS said, "The situation in Asia may be worse, as tariff rates are higher and the exposure to exports to the United States is also greater." UBS further stated, "We estimate that the biggest drag on growth is likely to be Thailand/Singapore (100-120 basis points), followed by Malaysia (60-80 basis points), and then Indonesia and the Philippines (30 basis points)."

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts by The Federal Reserve (FED), believing that the likelihood of an economic recession has increased. It is expected that the FED will begin a series of rate cuts in June, cutting three consecutive times by 25 basis points each, down to 3.5%-3.75%. If the recession is severe, there could be a 200 basis point cut next year. Goldman Sachs predicts a total cut of 130 basis points by 2025. Market expectations are largely consistent with Goldman Sachs' previous weighted forecasts.

Jinshi data news on March 3, the long-term bond market in the interbank market initially weakened, and the yield of the 10-year "24 coupon national bond 11" rose by 1.25bp to 1.74%; the first transaction yield of the same period "24 CDB 15" rose by 1.5bp to 1.7875%; the 30-year "24 special treasury bond 06" rose by 1.5bp to 1.93%.

The yield of active bonds of the 10-year Treasury bonds in the interbank market increased by 1BP to 1.70%, and the yield of active bonds of the 10-year policy bank bonds increased by 1.5BP to 1.775%.

Jinshi data, December 24th, the minutes of the Canadian Central Bank meeting showed that the decision of the Central Bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the second time in a row was a "50/50 choice," with some policymakers initially leaning towards a smaller rate cut. Some members said that a 25 basis point rate cut would be the best move, giving people time to assess the impact of the rate cuts since June. The rate cut has led to a stronger consumption and real estate activity. They believe that as the overall impact of the rate cuts in the past becomes clearer, policy can remain patient. However, in the end, policymakers lowered the Benchmark Interest Rate by 50 basis points because they had previously concluded that with inflation reaching 2%, economic overcapacity, and a weak outlook for the rise, monetary policy "no longer needs to be significantly restrictive." But they also acknowledged that not all recent data indicated the need for a 50 basis point rate cut. However, they also believe that a rate cut of this magnitude is unlikely to make the Interest Rate "lower than" .

On December 16th, Jin10 Data reported that the yields of major interest rate bonds in the interbank market continued to decline in early trading, with the yield of 10-year '24 coupon-bearing national bonds 11' down 1bp to 1.76%, hitting a new historical low; and the yield of 10-year '24 national development bonds 15' down 0.5bp to 1.86%.

On December 9th, Jinshi Data News, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a report that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, and due to the uncertainty of economic and political prospects, it will hope to retain future flexibility. Analysts said, "There is considerable uncertainty in the future, especially in terms of the timing, extent, and impact of US tariffs." They said the committee would like to keep its policy options open in 2025. At the upcoming meeting, the deposit interest rate is expected to be reduced to 3.00%, which is in line with the overwhelming view of the money market.

Jinshi data on December 9th, implemented a moderate easing monetary policy for the first time in 14 years. Zhang Jun believes that the Central Bank will take greater efforts to cut interest rates and reserve requirements, with a total policy interest rate reduction of 40-60 basis points (BP) throughout the year, guiding the 5-year LPR down by 60-100 BP. The total reserve requirement reduction may reach 150-250 BP throughout the year.

The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp for the seventh time in a row, and Trump called on the Fed to follow suit. According to the latest Fed Watch data, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in May is as high as 86.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 38.2%. Accommodative monetary policy and trade tensions around the world have been important factors supporting gold prices.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that in 2025, the monetary policy orientation will shift to moderately loose, with a total or cumulative adjustment of policy interest rates by 30-40 basis points, guiding the 5-year LPR to decrease by 40-60 basis points. The interest rate cut window may open after the Fed's interest rate cut expectations in the second quarter, and RRR cuts and medium-term lending facilities will release liquidity to support credit expansion. It is predicted that the fluctuation range of the 10-year government bond yield in 2025 will be 1.5%-1.9%, and that a 40 basis point reduction by the Central Bank throughout the year to 1.64% may be a reasonable level. The USD to CNY exchange rate may fluctuate around 7.3.

On February 14, Golden Ten Data reported that, according to a survey by Reuters of economists, it is expected that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will further advance its interest rate cut plan, reducing the rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% next Wednesday. They also expect a further 75 basis point cut later this year. Since August last year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cumulatively cut interest rates by 125 basis points, but there is still more work to be done to help the economy out of the recession. With the inflation rate of the previous quarter at 2.2%, within the target range of 1%-3%, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still has room to cut interest rates next week.

The optimism of British companies has declined, and the first indicator reflecting business conditions in 2025 is worrying. Inflationary pressures are rising again, posing increasingly difficult policy challenges for the Bank of England. Companies face cost challenges and the sales price index has soared to its highest level since mid-2023, which may also be a topic of discussion for the Bank of England and is expected to lead to a rate cut in 2025.

On January 10th, the data from Jinshi showed that the interbank bond market yield accelerated at the beginning of the day, with the yield on long-term bonds generally rising by 2 basis points. The yield on the 10-year treasury bonds increased by 2 basis points to 1.6450%, and the yield on the 30-year treasury bonds increased by 2 basis points to 1.9150%. Prior to this, the Central Bank cited experts as cautioning against an excessive interpretation of the moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting that the current market's enthusiasm for monetary easing may be excessive.

On January 3, according to Jinshi data, the strongest performing asset since 2025, the government bond futures took a nosedive in the afternoon, and the 30-year market maker contract for government bond futures fell in the afternoon after rising 0.9% earlier. The yield of the active 30-year government bond "24 special government bond 6" increased by 2bp to 1.86%. The nosedive of the 30-year government bond futures also dragged down other tenors of government bonds. In the process, the stock market has shown some improvement, with the three major indices narrowing their declines. So, how will the government bond market evolve? If government bonds weaken, will it become an opportunity for the stock market again? Analysts believe that based on market performance and research reports from various institutions, the market's expectations for 2025 have not been completely shattered. Under this background, more effort may still be needed to break the market's consensus expectations for government bonds.

On December 13th, Jinshi Data reported that the yield of the 10-year active bond "24 attached-interest national debt 17" fell by 3 basis points to 1.78%, hitting a new historic low.