Odaily星球日报讯 Moonbeam Network 宣布推出第三期 Moonbeam Grants 激励计划，将在 Gauntlet 战略指导下提供 450 枚 GLMR 生态赠款，当前价值约 135 万美元。 本次参选生态激励的项目包括 StellaSwap、MoonWell、Prime Protocol 和 BeamSwap。Grants 评估框架将按照 TVL、DAU、累计交易量和交易费等维度衡量。

Several aspects of BRC-20 tokens could be improved in order to achieve wider adoption: Scalability: As more applications and use cases for BRC-20 tokens are developed, there is a need for improved scalability to ensure that the network can handle a high volume of transactions without slowing down or becoming congested. Interoperability: While the BRC-20 standard has helped to establish some interoperability among digital tokens, there is still a need for greater standardization and compatibility between different blockchain networks and token standards. User experience: In order for BRC-20 tokens to achieve wider adoption, they need to be more user-friendly and accessible. This includes improving the user interface of wallets and other applications, as well as making it easier for users to understand the value and utility of different tokens.

Some Important Insights From the Greatest Trader to Have Ever Walked The Earth Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest traders to have ever lived, believed that the most important thing for speculators to control is their emotions. The driving force behind the market is not reasoning, logic, or pure economics. The real driving force is human nature, and human nature never changes. "Unless you invest real money, you won't know if your judgment is correct, because you haven't really tested your emotions." And I agree. It's human emotions that control the market, not reasoning. This is true for anything important in life: love, marriage, raising children, war, crime... rationality is rarely the driving force. Of course, I'm not saying that factors such as sales, profits, world events, politics, and technology don't affect prices. These factors will ultimately have an impact, and the performance of the entire global market as well as individual performance will reflect the influence of these factors. However, the most powerful and extreme factor is still human emotion. "I believe everything has cycles, just like life has cycles, and the market has cycles. These cycles often go to extremes and rarely have a chance to reach balance." Cycles are like waves in the ocean. When things are good, the waves are high, but when the party is over, the low tide will emerge. These cycles always come and go unexpectedly, and there's no way to predict them. To withstand the challenges of the cycle, you must exercise restraint, remain calm, and always maintain patience—regardless of whether things are good or bad. "Studying the market is actually studying cycles. If the trend changes, the momentum doesn't decrease, and the new trend will continue—objects in motion will continue to move. Remember, never go against the market, don't fight the trend!" "If a person makes a mistake, the only thing he should do now is to correct the mistake and not make the same mistake again. Cut your losses quickly, don't hesitate." "The performance of stocks often resembles that of a person, with different personalities: some are aggressive, some are conservative, some are very nervous, some are direct, some are logical, some follow the rules, and some are unpredictable. Studying the market is like studying people. After studying for a period of time, you will find that their performance in specific situations is predictable, which is very useful, and you can use it to grasp the timing of stock fluctuations."

Tokenomics: A Love Story Between Tokens and Economics Tokenomics, the marriage of "token" and "economics", governs the financial principles that guide the success of a token. Like any thriving relationship, the balance of supply and demand is key. While supply dictates the fate of a token in the long run, demand is the fuel that keeps it running. Understanding the interplay between emissions, inflation, deflation, token burns, token allocation, and vesting, as well as market cap, can help investors make informed decisions on which tokens to embrace. Whether you're after a token that offers a good ROI, boasts utility, or is driven by a cult following, tokenomics holds the key to unlocking its full potential. For curious minds, a brief explanatory article can be found here: https://www.gate.io/posts/3579154

Banking Updates: Credit Suisse and SVB Financial Group Face Challenges Credit Suisse is facing a liquidity crisis, and the Swiss National Bank is taking steps to prevent the situation from deteriorating. The authorities have decided to provide $54 billion of liquidity through a covered loan facility and standard central bank lending to support Credit Suisse's funding position. The hope is that this backstop will keep private sector liquidity providers engaged with Credit Suisse. In addition, the authorities are providing more information on Credit Suisse's capital, liquidity, and asset portfolio to reassure investors and counterparties about its finances and assets. This includes limited unrealized losses on bonds net of hedges and the quality of the large loan book funders ultimately finance. Furthermore, Credit Suisse is taking advantage of its improved liquidity to launch buybacks of some debt securities. This move improves equity at the margin and engineers a near-term short squeeze, reversing dynamics associated with bail-in risk. However, the key vulnerability remains: the Swiss National Bank can provide $54 billion of liquidity and still be well collateralized. But given the nature of Credit Suisse's assets, it cannot escalate without taking on a lot of credit risk. This would have to be mitigated with additional equity, likely involving bail-in of Credit Suisse's debt. So there is a risk of returning to unstable dynamics. SVB Financial Group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but its securities and funds continue to operate as normal. The Chapter 11 process will allow SVB Financial Group to evaluate strategic alternatives for its businesses and assets, especially SVB Capital and SVB Securities. The hope is to preserve the value of the company and sell off parts of the capital structure for pennies on the dollar.

US Economic Recovery Stalls as Industrial Production Slows According to the latest economic data, the US industrial production index declined by 0.25% year-over-year in February, marking the first annual decrease in this metric since February 2021. Industrial production, which measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors, is an important indicator of the health of the US economy, as it reflects the overall level of activity in these key industries. The decline in industrial production was driven by a 3.6% decrease in mining output, as well as a 1.2% decline in utility production, partially offset by a 0.3% increase in manufacturing output. Manufacturing production accounts for the majority of the industrial production index, so any changes in this metric can have a significant impact on the overall index. Despite the modest increase in manufacturing output of 0.1% from the previous month, the sector's year-over-year performance was disappointing, with a 1.0% decline compared to the previous year. However, the monthly increase in manufacturing output was better than expected, as economists had predicted a 0.3% drop in output. This positive outcome was partially due to an upward revision of January's manufacturing output, which was initially reported as a 1.0% month-over-month increase but was revised upward to a 1.3% increase. Overall, the latest data suggests that the decline in industrial production, coupled with the lackluster performance of manufacturing output, may be cause for concern among investors and policymakers, who will be closely monitoring these metrics for signs of future economic growth.

From Soft to Hard: The Perils of Transitioning to a Slower Economy The possibility of a hard landing in the economy is increasing due to the higher risk of banks tightening their lending standards. A hard landing refers to a sudden downturn in economic activity after a period of sustained growth. The concern arises because if banks do, in fact, tighten their lending standards, it could lead to a slowdown in loan and job growth, as well as overall economic activity. Tighter lending standards can make it more challenging for individuals and businesses to obtain loans. This, in turn, can result in slower loan growth, which can stifle business expansion and hinder job creation. The combination of these factors could potentially lead to a hard landing, in which the economy experiences a significant and abrupt decline. While economic forecasting is always somewhat uncertain, there are valid reasons to be worried about the potential for a hard landing in the current economic climate. Therefore, it is important to monitor the situation closely and take necessary measures to mitigate the risks of a hard landing.

Food for thought: When to Be Contrarian Financial markets are often seen as a reflection of reality, but in reality, they can be quite different. The reason for this is that markets tend to project out linear valuations based on recent trends, which means that they can become disconnected from the underlying reality. This is especially true in times of bull or bear markets when the market is either above or below reality. The best time to sell in the market, therefore, is not necessarily when reality is bad but when everyone is doing well in real life. This is because the market has applied an exponential multiple for things to continue, and it is only a matter of time before the market starts to come back down to earth. Similarly, the best time to buy is when we are in a depression, and a linear down projection is multiplied out. In this way, being contrarian can be a wise strategy because the consensus at extremes in financial markets causes the market to be at the furthest place away from reality, which then starts swinging back. However, being contrarian is also wrong because you are sitting at a place that is also far away from reality in the other direction. The market moves in a pendulum, and so you benefit inversely. In other words, you need to be mindful of where the market is relative to the macro environment and what the consensus pricing is, and then decide whether or not to take a contrarian approach. The key takeaway is that learning macro is not just about investing based on the findings themselves, but understanding where financial markets are relative to macro and what is the consensus pricing out linearly in which direction. At the extremes, being contrarian works well, but in the middle, the trend is your friend. In summary, financial markets can often be disconnected from reality due to the linear projections they make based on recent trends. Being contrarian can be a wise strategy when the market is at an extreme, but in the middle, it's best to follow the trend. Understanding macro can help investors make informed decisions about where the market is relative to reality and the consensus pricing out linearly.

Food for thought: PCE Exceeds Expectations The PCE [Personal Consumption Expenditures Index] has exceeded expectations, showing a year-over-year increase of 5.4% for the headline and 4.7% for the core, as well as a month-over-month increase of 0.6% for both the headline and core. Additionally, consumer spending increased by 1.8%, while personal income increased by 0.6% instead of 1%. However, the initial market reaction is unfavorable. The PCE is the preferred inflation gauge of the Fed, and the data is used to help guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rates. The higher-than-expected PCE numbers, particularly the year-over-year increase of 5.4% for the headline and 4.7% for the core, suggest that inflation may be increasing faster than anticipated. This can cause concern among traders because higher inflation can lead to higher borrowing costs, lower consumer purchasing power, and potentially slower economic growth. In addition, the lower-than-expected personal income growth suggests that consumers may have less money to spend in the future, which could further impact economic growth. How will the Fed react? Keep a lookout for Fed speeches.

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The Future of Earnings: Is Pessimism the New Optimism? The current state of earnings and margins reveals a few noteworthy trends. Trailing earnings, which refer to a company's earnings per share [EPS] for the most recent four quarters, have not shown any significant growth recently and are currently stagnant. Meanwhile, expected earnings, which represent analysts' predictions for a company's future earnings, are declining. This indicates that while companies may have performed well in the past, the future looks less promising. Margins, which refer to a company's profit margin, are also worth considering. Although margins are decreasing, they are still at pre-COVID levels of 12%. This is likely due to the pandemic's impact on the economy and consumer behavior, leading to companies having to adjust their operations to maintain profitability. Interestingly, some individuals view the current pessimistic outlook on earnings as a reason to be optimistic. This perspective suggests that negative earnings growth for the S&P 500, which is an index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the United States, is actually an indication of a bullish trend. In addition, the U.S. beat rate, which refers to the percentage of companies that beat analysts' earnings expectations, is stable but with momentum reversing. This means that while companies are still meeting or exceeding earnings expectations, this trend may not continue. However, not everyone agrees with this optimistic outlook. Some argue that earnings contractions cannot be deemed bullish, as there have been instances in which forward EPS growth fell to zero. This includes specific dates such as March 01, January 08, April 15, October 2019, and January 2023, which indicate that earnings growth can falter suddenly and significantly, leading to a decrease in stock prices.

The Sound of Silence: How the Financial World is Reacting to SVB's Demise The financial landscape has been noticeably subdued since the demise of Silicon Valley Bank. Across the board, there has been a notable shortage of high yield and investment grade issuance, as well as a distinct lack of initial public offering [IPO] activity. It seems as though the financial sector is taking a cautious approach, with investors being hesitant to take on new risks in such an uncertain climate. Furthermore, it is worth noting that recent mergers and acquisitions [M&A] activity appears to be largely pre-planned rather than a result of bold new risk-taking. This could suggest that companies are hesitant to take on new ventures until the market stabilizes and there is more certainty in the financial climate. Until then, it seems as though the capital markets will remain relatively muted, with investors taking a more conservative approach to their investments.

ZKP Projects: A New Frontier for Traders to Explore Traders, take note: zero-knowledge proofs [ZK] have emerged as a major player in the world of blockchain scaling, particularly when it comes to offchain execution environments known as Layer 2s [L2s]. These L2s can execute transactions outside of Ethereum and then post transaction data in batches to Ethereum to inherit its security, providing affordable and rapid transaction processing. Among the most popular L2 solutions are ZK rollups, which can facilitate up to 2,000 transactions per second [TPS], a huge increase from Ethereum's current rate of 30 TPS. ZK rollups use ZK proofs such as SNARKs to validate and post their transaction batches on Ethereum. This approach combines offchain execution with onchain data to provide ZK rollups. Some of the largest ZK rollups today include dYdX, Loopring, zkSync Lite, ZKSpace, and Aztec Connect. In addition to ZK rollups, two other styles of scaling to note are validiums and volitions. Validiums execute transactions offchain and maintain their data via ZK proofs offchain as well, which makes them ultimately custodial. They can facilitate up to 20,000 TPS, however, making them powerful scaling solutions. Immutable X and Sorare are among the more recognizable validiums in action today. Volitions, created by the StarkWare team, are a cross between a ZK-rollup and a validium. With a volition, users can choose between onchain and offchain data availability, providing apps the option of validium-levels of TPS performance while still being interoperable with non-custodial ZK-rollup tech. Traders should keep a close eye on ZK projects, particularly ZK rollups, as they continue to innovate and scale Ethereum's capabilities. With L2s becoming increasingly important for scaling solutions, ZK proofs are likely to play a crucial role in the future of blockchain technology. All that said, the five largest ZK rollups as currently tracked by L2BEAT are as follows: 1. dYdX [$DYDX$] — a crypto and derivatives exchange | $375M USD TVL 2. Loopring [$LRC$] — L2 for trading, NFTs | $121M USD TVL 3. zkSync Lite — L2 for trading, NFTs | $65M USD TVL 4. ZKSpace [$ZKS$] — L2 for trading, NFTs | $49M USD TVL 5. Aztec Connect — L2 for private DeFI | $15M USD TVL This article has been summarized for easier reading. Check the original here: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/whats-new-with-zks

The Oil Market Blues: Oversupply and Weaker Demand Forecast Pose Challenges The global oil market has been experiencing a series of challenges, with both oil demand and oversupply posing significant concerns for the industry. Recently, there have been several developments that highlight these issues, including downward revisions in oil demand projections and a significant decline in Brent's nearest timespread. According to industry experts, oil demand is expected to be weaker in the US and Europe in 2023 and 2024. In a recent statement, one major oil company stated that they had lowered their demand estimates for these regions, citing softer realized oil demand data, reduced US GDP growth forecasts, and updated estimates from their refined OECD demand model. This downward revision in demand projections is a clear indication that the market is facing some challenges that are likely to persist in the coming years. At the same time, the market is also experiencing oversupply, as evidenced by the recent decline in Brent's nearest timespread. This measure is a reflection of how well supplied the market is and it decreased by the largest amount since January, almost flipping into a bearish contango structure. This indicates that the market is oversupplied, which is a concerning development for oil producers and investors alike.

Likes, Shares, and Investments: The Dark Side of Social Media Financial Advice The rise in the use of social media for financial advice has many potential consequences. One of the main concerns is the lack of oversight and regulation. Unlike traditional news organizations and established investment firms, social media platforms do not have the same level of editorial oversight or industry regulations that ensure the accuracy and reliability of financial advice. As a result, users may be more susceptible to fraudulent or misleading information, which could lead to financial losses. The gamification of trading, which uses game-like features to encourage users to make trades, can also make it easier for inexperienced investors to make impulsive decisions without fully understanding the risks involved. Another concern is the potential for bad actors to use engaging and fun content to gain the trust of users, particularly those who are younger and less experienced with financial decision-making. This can lead to exploitation and fraud, as well as the perpetuation of harmful financial practices. It's important to note that financial decisions can have long-term consequences and should be made carefully and with the help of trusted advisors. While social media can be a useful source of information, it should not be the sole basis for making important financial decisions. Individuals should seek out reputable sources of financial advice and do their own research before making any investment decisions.

Expectations for Accelerated M&A Activity in H2 2023 Despite Slow Start The latest data from FactSet indicates that the US Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) market continues to remain subdued, with a significant drop of 23% in deal activity in February 2023 compared to the previous month. In February, only 1,066 M&A deals were announced, down from 1,385 in January. The trend over the past three months also shows a decrease in M&A activity in 19 out of the 21 sectors monitored by FactSet, compared to the same period last year. Despite the slow start to the year, there are expectations that M&A activity will pick up in the latter half of 2023. Several factors are anticipated to drive this acceleration, including well-capitalized companies seeking to make strategic acquisitions to bolster their core businesses during an economic slowdown. Additionally, financial sponsors are expected to deploy their capital after holding record amounts of cash, while shareholder activism could increase as companies show uneven performance. The largest deals announced in February include Newmont Corp's proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining Ltd. for $16.9 billion, Public Storage's bid to acquire Life Storage Inc. for $10.9 billion, and CVS Health Corp's agreement to acquire Oak Street Health for $9.5 billion. These deals show that there is still significant activity in the M&A market, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. It remains to be seen how the market will evolve in the coming months, but many are hopeful that it will pick up as the year progresses.

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Market Wizards - Market Rewards Persistency and Discipline The book "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager is a must-read for anyone interested in finance and investing, as it offers a unique look into the world of successful traders. What's interesting is that the traders featured in the book come from diverse backgrounds, but they all share one common trait - they have achieved exceptional success in the markets. The book provides valuable lessons on the strategies, philosophies, and experiences of these traders, and emphasizes the importance of having a well-defined trading system, managing risk, and maintaining a positive mindset. One of the key takeaways from the book is that persistent learners are rewarded in the market. The traders interviewed by Schwager stress the importance of having a system in place to eliminate emotion and bias from the decision-making process. They also emphasize the importance of being disciplined and sticking to the system, even when faced with losses. Moreover, the traders have a set of strict rules they follow, regardless of market conditions, ensuring that their decisions are based on objective criteria. Another crucial aspect of successful trading highlighted in the book is risk management. The traders understand that risk is inherent in trading and that managing it properly is crucial to long-term success. They discuss the importance of having a well-defined risk management plan in place to protect their capital and prevent large losses. Diversification of the portfolio is also crucial to reduce overall risk. The traders also share their thoughts on the psychology of trading. They discuss how having a positive mindset, the ability to stay calm under pressure, and being able to accept losses without letting emotions drive decisions is crucial to success. They stress the importance of being able to handle the stress of trading while maintaining a healthy work-life balance. In conclusion, "Market Wizards" provides valuable insights into the world of successful trading, highlighting the importance of having a well-defined trading system, managing risk, and maintaining a positive mindset. The book's practical advice and lessons can be applied to any type of trading or investing, making it a must-read for anyone looking to gain a deeper understanding of the world of finance and investing. Ultimately, the book's message is clear: the market rewards those who are persistent learners and disciplined traders.

Copy Trading: A Guide to Doing it Right In recent years, copy trading has gained a lot of popularity, with many traders taking advantage of the ability to replicate the trades of more experienced traders. However, the practice has also received criticism, with some people believing that copy trading means you lack skills as a trader. In this article, we will explore copy trading and how to do it right. Copy trading is not bad. It doesn't mean you don't have any skills. In fact, many professional traders use copy trading to augment their existing strategies. Copy trading can help you learn from the experience of others and potentially increase your profitability. However, the key to successful copy trading is how you approach it. Here are some important things to keep in mind: 1. Have a Plan When you copy a trade from someone, make sure you have a plan for it. Most people see a tweet or social media post and quickly jump into a trade without any real thought. They often don't even set up proper notification systems to know when to get out. To avoid this, make a plan for the exit and stick to it. This means deciding on your profit targets and stop loss levels before entering a trade. It also means being disciplined enough to exit the trade when your plan tells you to, regardless of what others are doing. 2. It's Okay to Disagree Just because someone has a high level of experience or has made successful trades in the past does not mean that all of their trades will work out. You should never blindly follow someone else's trades without first considering whether they align with your own trading strategy and thesis. If you disagree with a trade, skip it. It's okay to fade giga brains. Only copy trades that you have conviction in and that align with your own trading thesis. 3. Have Conviction If you copy a trade without having the same thesis, you will get shaken out too easily. You need to have conviction in the trade you are making, and this requires doing your own research and analysis. Only when you are confident in the thesis will you be able to sail through the rough waters. This means being disciplined enough to stick to your plan and not get swayed by short-term market fluctuations. 4. Take Full Responsibility One of the main reasons copy trading is so popular is that it shifts responsibility from your inability to others. If you lose, they were wrong. If you win, you were right. This is a bad mindset to have. You need to take full responsibility for your trades, whether you are copying someone else's or making your own. This means owning up to your mistakes and learning from them, as well as giving credit when credits are due. In conclusion, copy trading is a great skill to have when done right. It can help you learn from the experience of others and potentially increase your profitability. However, you need to approach it with discipline, conviction, and responsibility. Make sure you have a plan, only copy trades that you have conviction in, and take full responsibility for your trades. By following these guidelines, you can make copy trading work for you.

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No Inflation, No Stimulus, No Problem: S&P Global Predicts Earnings Boom The recently released earnings estimates by S&P Global for 2024 are creating a buzz in the financial world. The report suggests that the projected earnings will exceed both long-term growth trends and economic growth expectations, which is significant news for investors. The noteworthy aspect of this prediction is that it is expected to happen without the support of external factors like inflation, stimulus, and low rates. This is an indication that companies will perform exceptionally well and generate substantial profits in the coming years. Moreover, the stable earnings estimates demonstrate that Wall Street is gradually gaining more confidence in the market's ability to avoid a recession. This is a positive sign for investors as it suggests that the economic outlook is becoming more favorable. The potential for increased profits, coupled with a more optimistic economic outlook, could lead to higher stock prices and more significant returns for investors. Lastly, during risk-off periods, the dispersion in analyst earnings estimates tends to grow wider. This indicates that there is a growing disagreement among analysts about the future earnings of companies. This can occur during times of heightened uncertainty, such as market downturns, when investors are less confident about the market's prospects. During these periods, investors should be especially cautious and pay close attention to the diverging opinions of analysts.

Breaking Records: The Surging US Petroleum Exports and Inventories The US petroleum industry is a major contributor to the country's economy and has significant impacts on the global energy landscape. In order to understand the current state of the US petroleum market, it's important to look at two key metrics: petroleum inventories and petroleum exports. Petroleum inventories refer to the amount of crude oil and refined products that are stored in tanks and other facilities across the country. These inventories are closely monitored by industry analysts and investors as they provide important insights into supply and demand dynamics, production levels, and market trends. Charts that depict US petroleum inventories in MB [million barrels] are regularly published by industry associations, government agencies, and other sources to help stakeholders keep track of these metrics. In recent years, the US has also emerged as a major exporter of petroleum products, including crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. According to the latest data, US total petroleum exports surged to a new record high of approximately 12 million barrels per day (b/d) in the previous week. This was driven by strong demand from overseas markets, as well as the US industry's increasing export capabilities.

China to Set New Growth Target: What It May Mean for Global Markets, Liquidity, and the Crypto Sector China is expected to announce a new growth target during the National People's Congress next week. Recently, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a strong reading of 52.6, indicating the second consecutive month of economic growth. Additionally, China experienced growth in home sales for the first time in 20 months and export orders for the first time in nearly two years. The data set suggests that China's economy is recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this could have implications for global financial markets and the flow of liquidity. Firstly, positive economic data from China could boost investor confidence in the country's economic recovery, leading to increased investment flows into China's equity and bond markets. This could potentially drive up asset prices in these markets, which could spill over into other global markets. Secondly, increased economic activity in China could lead to higher demand for commodities, such as iron ore, copper, and oil, which are key inputs in China's manufacturing sector. This could benefit commodity-exporting countries, such as Australia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, as well as companies involved in the production and transportation of these commodities. Thirdly, the flow of liquidity could also be affected by the Chinese government's response to the economic recovery. If China maintains an accommodative monetary policy stance, this could provide a supportive backdrop for global liquidity and asset prices. Turning to the crypto sector, per Tradingview data, the current market cap is approximately $1.033T. Yesterday, the market's upward trend hit a roadblock at $1.04T, which corresponded with a surge in trading volume based on the volume profile indicator. Moving forward, if the market closes below the $1.028T benchmark, it is expected to target $1.018T in the short term, indicating further declines or consolidations for many coins. Conversely, if the market manages to close above the $1.037T Fib Extended Golden Zone, yesterday's bullish candle may indicate a turnaround for the entire sector, with more capital flowing into the cryptocurrency market and resulting in a rise in most coins.