With the news of Pump.fun issuing coins once again circulating, the already fragile liquidity line on the Solana chain has been breached, tearing apart the market confidence that was still in a recovery phase, and the on-chain risk aversion sentiment has rapidly intensified.

On-chain “slot machines”, only 3.6% of users profit over 500 dollars.

Recently, rumors surrounding Pump.fun’s upcoming coin issuance have stirred up market turmoil once again. According to Blockworks citing multiple informed sources, Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion through a token sale, with a valuation of $4 billion. The tokens will be sold to both the public and private investors. Although the official release date has not been confirmed, the platform’s social media accounts suggest that it may go live within two weeks.

In fact, this is not the first time that an issue coin plan has been reported. Back in February of this year, according to Wu Shuo Blockchain reports, Pump.fun planned to issue tokens through a Dutch auction within CEX and provided detailed issue coin preparation documents to CEX. However, at that time, market liquidity was significantly drained by the personal MEME coin issued by Trump and his wife Melania, and the plan ultimately failed to materialize. Now, with the market environment slightly recovering, Pump.fun’s issue coin plan seems to be back on the agenda.

However, this on-chain “printing machine” is facing a significant decline in market enthusiasm.

According to Dune data, as of June 4, the platform’s cumulative revenue has exceeded $730 million, with a single-day revenue peak approaching $15 million. However, since February 2025, the platform’s revenue growth has significantly slowed down, and currently, most daily revenues remain stable in the range of several million dollars.

In terms of trading volume, Pump.fun set a historical record of $3.3 billion in a single week at the end of 2024. Although there were several rebounds to the $1 billion level afterward, it was difficult to return to its peak. The weakening trend of liquidity has, to some extent, diminished the platform’s popularity and users’ willingness to participate.

From the perspective of token creation volume, Pump.fun has cumulatively created over 11.02 million tokens to date, with a single-day token creation peak of 70,000 (in January 2025). However, this data has now dropped to around 30,000 per day, indicating a cooling of user participation enthusiasm.

It is worth noting that behind the vast number of MEME coins, there are very few projects with a certain market capitalization. According to Dune statistics, currently, there are only 14 tokens with a market value exceeding 50 million USD, and only 259 tokens have a market value between 1 million and 50 million USD, while the remaining approximately 14,000 tokens are at the micro-cap stage. This also indicates that the vast majority of tokens are stuck in the internal hype stage, lacking the ability to attract external funding.

At the user level, Pump.fun is also facing a new traffic cliff, with old users struggling to hold on. Dune data shows that Pump.fun experienced a peak moment at the end of January 2025, with the number of active wallets in a single day exceeding 400,000. The influx of new users at that time was key to the explosive growth in user numbers. However, as market sentiment cooled, the number of active wallets declined accordingly, and the platform’s activity mainly relied on the reuse of old users, while contributions from new users significantly decreased. This trend also corroborates that a large number of Pump.fun users frequently attempt to create and speculate on MEME coins, but very few projects can establish sustained value, leading to short user cycles and weak retention.

Not only that, behind the get-rich-quick narrative of Pump.fun is a blatant case of survivor bias. Dune data shows that this month, the number of wallets participating in trades is about 594,000, of which only 3.6% of users achieved substantial profits of over $500. Even more astonishing is that only 27 wallets made profits exceeding $100,000, accounting for only 0.0045% of total traders; while the number of wallets achieving profits over $10,000 is 577, which only represents 0.1%. In contrast, the loss rate is even higher, reaching 52.5%, with extreme cases of losses in the million-dollar range. These data clearly indicate that a very small number of whales have captured the vast majority of profits, while the vast majority of retail investors merely serve as liquidity fuel.

With user growth peaking, concerns over token quality, and liquidity being overdrawn, whether Pump.fun can issue coin to stir market sentiment and support a valuation of up to $4 billion is quite uncertain.

Solana’s risk aversion sentiment is rising, and high valuation issue coin is causing controversy.

The high valuation coin issuance news from Pump.fun has made many investors worry whether there will be a repeat of the last wave of frenzy during the release of APE coin.

“The last top-tier project with a valuation of 4 billion was Yuga Labs, which issued APE, claiming to be the last wave of brilliance in the bull market of that year, after which all the market’s altcoins were halved. Now Pump.fun also has a valuation of 4 billion, but its fundraising amount is more than double that of APE in its year. In the past few days, various platforms have increased the frequency of listing coins, probably intending to avoid the major bloodsucking of PUMP two weeks later.” Crypto KOL@ABissue coin.

From the perspective of fund flows on the Solana chain, risk aversion is rising, and MEME coins are collectively declining. According to data from CoinGecko, popular MEME coins within the Solana ecosystem have generally experienced varying degrees of pullback over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, data from Artemis shows that Solana has become the third highest blockchain network in terms of net fund outflow in the past 24 hours.

independent researcher@HaotianPointing out frankly that Pump.fun’s current valuation level is “extremely bubble-like,” the valuation of a MEME launch platform has actually surpassed that of most DeFi blue-chip protocols, and four core criticisms are raised: (1) The excessively inflated market valuation is quite unreasonable: Pump.fun’s attention economy business depends on the irrational product of short-term high Fomo of market MEME coins. In other words, it relies on “gambling” driven traffic monetization. This means that Pump.fun’s business model monetization capability is entirely a product of short-term market spotlight effects, rather than a sustainable normalized profit logic; (2) A fragile business moat is easily surpassed: Pump.fun has seized the technological dividend of Solana’s high performance and low cost, as well as the era dividend of MEME culture moving from niche to mainstream. This business model, built on others’ infrastructure, is essentially a “parasitic business.” Once significant changes occur in the Solana ecosystem, the fragility of its business model will be fully exposed; (3) The tool-like properties of Launchpad make it difficult to form an ecosystem: Currently, even if it is “making money,” it is merely a “coin issuance tool.” The paradox of wanting to transform from a pure Launchpad into a complex MEME economic ecosystem is inherent: The core of MEME culture is precisely simplicity, directness, and viral dissemination; excessive functional additions will only cause the platform to lose its original “wildness”; (4) Overvaluation will subvert the original value innovation system: Pump.fun’s excessive valuation sends a dangerous signal to the entire industry: In the current Crypto ecosystem, “traffic aggregation + speculative monetization” may surpass “technological innovation + infrastructure.” He believes that the key is whether Pump.fun can truly build a sustainable business moat after obtaining massive capital; otherwise, such a distorted valuation will bring immense innovative disasters to the entire industry, foreshadowing a more utilitarian, short-sighted future that is further away from the technical geek essence of Crypto.

KOL@xingptFrom a valuation perspective, Pump.fun’s annualized income over the past 30 days is $77.98 million, corresponding to an FDV of 5B, which gives an FDV/annualized income ratio of 64; this is considered relatively high. In the long run, Pump is definitely not worth this valuation, as the income certainty is not as strong as that of DeFi leaders like Ray/Cake; however, if the market is good, the team may create FOMO, and it could potentially double. Given the current valuation and the sentiment on X, I believe there’s no need to be overly bearish or even short at the opening. Holding cash and watching the changes is sufficient.

However, crypto KOL @Crypto VedaThis indicates that discussing merits and faults without considering historical processes is simply being unreasonable. The direct reason Solana has achieved its current position as a leading on-chain battlefield is due to Pump.fun, which has provided a comprehensive liquidity solution from zero liquidity to AMM and then to CEX, standardizing on-chain security (withdrawal pools, hidden contract risks), building a PVP on-chain culture, and forming a significant amount of SOL locked in. The emergence of Pump.fun is equivalent to the iPhone moment on-chain; it is also the first to recognize that the attention span of the younger generation is extremely short, and they disdain traditional values, preferring PVP. From a value investment perspective, Pump is the largest consumer application in the entire network, yet its price-to-earnings ratio is only 5, making it a true value investment target. He believes there are currently only two moats in the crypto space: liquidity and screen time.

“Don’t fantasize that Pump.fun will issue an airdrop anymore.” In response to the market’s fantasies about the Pump.fun airdrop, the founder of Weirdo Ghost GangsleepyIt is pointed out that Pump.fun has completed its cold start with its product and has no motivation to issue airdrops. In fact, airdrops have increasingly become a tool for short-term attention capture. While they seem to “incentivize users,” they rarely manage to truly retain loyal users. Airdrop ≠ user loyalty. Airdrops are merely a traffic release mechanism used to amplify a project’s influence in a short period of time. However, Pump.fun already has a stable and large user base, and it does not need to use airdrops to supplement attention or create topics.

Overall, the news of Pump.fun issuing coins has once again ignited heated discussions in the market, but behind this enthusiasm lies the fragility of the market’s structural liquidity, the retreat of user participation sentiment, and the enormous bubble of the MEME narrative.

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