PEPE Price Analysis: After a short-term big pump of 10%, it rapidly fell back. Is it a bull trap or a breakthrough brewing?

Question

The silent memecoin (Meme Coin) PEPE (Pepe Coin) suddenly exploded late at night this past Monday (UTC time), attracting widespread attention in the market. Driven by a surge in volume of 500 million dollars, the price skyrocketed nearly 10% in a short period, igniting discussions in the market about a new upward trend for PEPE coin.

🔥 Driving Factors Behind Monday's Pump: The recent price movement of PEPE coin is mainly driven by a shift in macro risk sentiment.

Easing Geopolitical Tensions: The situation between Iran and Israel is cooling down, increasing the risk appetite for cryptocurrencies (Crypto Risk Appetite).
Concerns about trade wars diminish: The threat of tariffs by the United States on major economies (China, EU, India) has weakened, reducing market uncertainty.
Memecoin Season End Expectations: Some traders are betting that the current memecoin cycle (Meme Coin Cycle) has not yet fully ended, seeking quick volatility opportunities.

⚠️ Why has the rise not been sustained? Surprisingly, the recent pump in the PEPE coin market faded quickly. After a spike, the price rapidly retraced (Retracement), falling back to the key level around $0.0000095, nearly erasing all gains. Market sentiment was like a "brief carnival."

Technical Indicator Alert Signal:

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Soared from the oversold zone (near 30) to the overbought zone (about 70) within a few hours, indicating short-term overheating.
Weak buying pressure: Lack of sustained buying support, rapid price pullback, exposing market conviction (Market Conviction) is insufficient.

🐳 Whales are stepping back and waiting for the right opportunity: On-chain Data ( reveals deeper dynamics (Source: IntoTheBlock):

Large volume transactions ( >$100K) plummet: From three weeks ago 32.9 trillion PEPE crashed 93% to the current only 2.06 trillion PEPE.
Whale Strategy Interpretation: Crypto Whale )Crypto Whales( significantly reduces activity, suggesting that they are in a wait-and-see mode, possibly waiting for a better entry point )Better Entry Point( or a significant price dip )Significant Price Dip( to accumulate )Accumulation(.

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📊 High floating profits become a potential sword: Santiment on-chain indicators issue a key warning:

Profit to Loss Ratio ) High: Current value reaches 2.55 — that is, every $1 unrealized loss corresponds to $2.55 unrealized profit.
Selling pressure risk: Such a large amount of unrealized profit (Unrealized Profit) means that holders have a strong motivation for profit-taking (Profit-taking), which can easily trigger a cascade selling (Cascade Selling) when the pump loses steam, suppressing price rebounds.

🔮 Technical battle point: $0.0000095 neckline defense battle From the perspective of technical analysis (Technical Analysis), PEPE is at a critical turning point:

Key support/resistance: $0.0000095 is the neckline of the Cup and Handle Pattern built over the past 6 months. This is a battleground for bulls and bears.
Technical indicators subtly strengthen:
- MACD Indicator: A Golden Cross formed last weekend (, indicating potential Bullish Momentum ) is budding.
- RSI Indicator: Rebounded from a low position, but still below the neutral line (50), requiring further confirmation of strength.

🎯 Potential Path Simulation:

Bullish breakout scenario: If the PEPE coin price can effectively stabilize and break through the $0.0000095 neckline resistance, the cup and handle pattern target points to $0.000020, with a potential rise of 117%. This will confirm the new uptrend (New Uptrend).
Bearish breakdown risk: If the $0.0000095 key support is lost, the next important support area (Support Zone) looks down to $0.0000079, indicating a possible significant correction (Significant Correction).

💎 Core focus of traders:

$0.0000095 Long and short competition result: This is the key indicator of the short-term trend.
Signs of recovery in whale activity on the chain: A rebound in large transaction volume is a key signal of confidence restoration.
Continuity of RSI and MACD indicators: Confirm whether the technical momentum has truly strengthened.
Profit-taking pressure release: Monitor on-chain profit address changes and exchange inflow volume.
Macroeconomic Sentiment Fluctuations: Geopolitics and global trade policies remain important external variables affecting high-risk crypto assets (High-Risk Crypto Assets).

Strategy Suggestion: Traders should remain cautious before competing for clarity at key positions. If participating, be sure to set strict stop-loss strategy (Stop-loss Strategy) to manage risk, and closely monitor updates on the aforementioned core data points.

PEPE-5.53%

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