The current market is showing a typical standoff between bulls and bears, with both sides engaging in fierce competition.

From a technical perspective, the signals are clearly diverging: on one hand, the weekly EMA30 has formed a strong support line, and the number of open futures contracts has reached the highest level in nearly three months, releasing positive signals; on the other hand, the daily MACD shows signs of a top divergence, coupled with a 22% week-on-week increase in the Bitcoin reserves of trading platforms, bringing downward pressure to the market.

On-chain data also demonstrates a tug-of-war between both sides: the bullish side possesses a favorable advantage with a stablecoin trading platform balance exceeding 30 billion USDT; meanwhile, the bearish camp is armed with a rising derivatives market PUT/CALL ratio of 0.85, preparing to counterattack.

The key trading range currently faced by the market is clearly visible: the upper side needs to break through the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement resistance formed by previous high points; the lower side has a dual support line formed by the CME futures gap and a dense trading volume area.

It is noteworthy that the market is about to face two major potential turning points: on the macro level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced within the next 72 hours, which may trigger volatility; on the micro level, the activity frequency of large holding addresses has significantly increased, indicating that there may be important developments.