XRP Bull vs Bear Battle intensifies! Prediction market bets on $4 probability fall to 51%, technical indicator shows increasing downside risk | XRP price prediction

XRP has recently experienced a severe pullback, with the price falling from a historical high of $3.65 to $2.89, leading to a sharp decline in bullish sentiment in the prediction market Myriad. The probability of XRP rising to $4 has plummeted from 66% a week ago to 51%, while the probability of falling to $2 has risen to 49%. Technical indicators show that the 50-day moving average has been breached, and the RSI has dropped to 43 in the Oversold range. Analysts warn that if the critical resistance level of $3.3 cannot be reclaimed, the downside risk will continue to expand.

Prediction market is changing: Bullish faith faces severe test.

The prediction market Myriad, operated by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, shows a dramatic reversal in XRP investor sentiment:

• A week ago, the bullish probability of betting on a rise to $4 reached 66%.
• The current bullish probability has dropped sharply to 51%, while the bearish probability (falling to $2) has risen to 49%.
• On August 21, an extreme pessimistic sentiment with a bearish probability of 61% was observed. This volatility reflects that the market's divergence on the short-term trend of XRP has reached a critical point.

Technical indicators worsen: Three major indicators trigger alarms

Moving average system breakdown:

(Source: TradingView)

The price of XRP has fallen below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is typically regarded as a mid-term trend support. If the 50-day EMA turns into a resistance level, breaking through the psychological barrier of $3 will become significantly more difficult.

Momentum indicator weakens:

(Source: TradingView)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plummeted to 43, well below the neutral value of 50, indicating that sellers have taken control of the market rhythm. Historically, an RSI below 45 often signals further downside risk.

Trend momentum loss:

The Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped to 23, breaching the key threshold of 25, indicating that XRP has lost a clear trend direction and entered a choppy and disordered range, with bulls lacking sustained upward momentum.

Long and Short Scenario Simulation: 4 Dollar Dream and 2 Dollar Nightmare

Bull Market Scenario (Probability 51%):

It is necessary to immediately break through the psychological barrier of 3 dollars with a significant increase in volume, and recapture the 3.3 dollar triangle breakout point in order to open the path to 4 dollars. Currently, market confidence in this scenario continues to diminish.

Bear market scenario (probability 49%):

The first support level is $2.5 (psychological level), the second support level is $2.3 (previous consolidation range), and the final target is $2. With the weakening RSI and the breaking of the channel support, the possibility of testing $2.5 has sharply increased.

September Curse: Historical Cycle Warning Risk

Analysts specifically point out the seasonal risk of "Red September" - XRP has continued to decline after reaching an all-time high in mid-July, and if combined with an overall pullback in the cryptocurrency market, it could form an accelerated downward trend. The current price has formed a descending triangle structure, and the technical indicators are bearish.

Conclusion

XRP is facing a deep pullback test after a historic breakthrough. The probability in the prediction market is approaching a 50/50 watershed, reflecting that investors are caught in directional confusion. In the short term, attention should be focused on the outcome of the battle for the 3-dollar mark: if the volume recovers the moving average system, there is hope to restart the rising trend; if it continues to be blocked by the 50-day EMA, testing the 2.5-dollar support will be unavoidable. Traders should be cautious of the dual pressure from the traditional off-season in September and the weakening technical indicators, and adjust their positions appropriately to cope with the amplified volatility risk.