Why September could be a turning point in Bitcoin's Q4 story

History shows that Q4 is always the strongest quarter for Bitcoin (BTC), with an average profit of 85.4% and a high success rate in double-digit growth phases. This is not a coincidence; the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary easing cycles often support risk assets, and BTC has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend.

BTC price chart | Source: TradingViewCurrently, the market is pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut in September, even as inflation remains persistent. This indicates a clear trend towards risk acceptance. If the Fed implements the cut, the inflows seen in Q4 previously could lead to a price increase of up to 200,000 USD by the end of the year.

This means that BTC could record an additional 84,000 USD from the current price.

Technically, BTC seems to be building a solid foundation in the range of 110,000–115,000 USD. Notably, ETF flows have turned positive, with 90 million USD in net inflows attracted after losing 1.5 billion USD in the four days prior.

However, seasonality may limit short-term gains. The months of August and September are often seen as difficult periods for BTC, with average returns tending to be flat or negative. If this trend continues, a breakout to 125,000 USD in the next 60 days may be too soon.

BTC and macro factors in Q4

History shows that October and November are the periods with the highest beta of BTC, with an average combined return of +67.91%. This is usually when growth phases begin strongly.

Conversely, December often records a modest average increase, typically serving as a phase of accumulation or the final surge, as investors seek to lock in profits from previous rallies.

Therefore, if the Fed cuts interest rates in September and BTC reaches the resistance level of 125,000 USD, this will almost completely align with the strongest momentum phase in Bitcoin's history, paving the way for a potential breakout into price exploration.

Source: CoinGlassIn summary, the market's strong tilt towards the possibility of interest rate cuts in September is clearly not just a mere macro trade. This is an important turning point, with only 45 days to go.

During this period, if BTC wants to replicate the typical expansion of Q4, it will need to turn the level of 125,000 USD into support and receive confirmation of the change in liquidity.

Until these factors are synchronized, the possibility of rising to 200,000 USD may still be limited.

Mr. Teacher