Hedera ( HBAR ) dropped 22% over 30 days - Will July bring a breakout?

The native Token of Hedera, HBAR, is facing strong selling pressure, declining nearly 5% on the day, resulting in a 22% loss over the past 30 days. This bearish trend reflects the overall market condition, as the selling pressure has pulled the prices of many cryptocurrencies down to lower levels.

The bearish sentiment towards HBAR has become more pronounced, as on-chain data shows increasing disappointment from the trading community.

Futures traders are betting on a bearish trend

The Long/Short ratio of HBAR is currently at 0.93, indicating an dominance of Short positions in the futures market. This reflects a negative sentiment, with many traders betting that the price of HBAR will fall in the short term.

The Long/Short ratio measures the distribution between Long and Short positions in the futures market of an asset. When this ratio is above 1, it indicates optimism, with most investors expecting the asset price to rise. However, when the ratio is below 1, as in the case of HBAR, it can be seen that traders are skeptical about the potential for price increases and are betting on the possibility of prices falling.

With a clear bearish trend in the positioning of derivative traders, the spot price of HBAR may be negatively impacted. This will be exacerbated if there are no positive factors from the market or changes in overall sentiment. In this context, the price of HBAR could continue to fall sharply, especially if the bearish trend is further reinforced by other negative factors.

The Long/Short ratio of HBAR | Source: CoinglassAnother indicator, the Elder-Ray Index, is also signaling a bearish trend, as the current value of this index is -0.011. The Elder-Ray Index measures the strength of the buying and selling sides in the market through the difference between the trading price and the (EMA) exponential moving average. When this index is negative, it indicates that the selling side is dominant, meaning that the price is trading below the EMA, and selling pressure is strong.

With these signals, it can be forecasted that the sellers of HBAR are still controlling the market and may continue to push the price of this token lower in the short term.

Elder-Ray Index of HBAR | Source: TradingView## HBAR price faces significant challenges

Since reaching a peak of 0.156 USD on June 25, HBAR has fallen into a bearish trend and is currently trading at 0.144 USD. The weakness of this altcoin continues in the context of the overall cryptocurrency market facing difficulties.

With technical indicators and on-chain data showing increased selling pressure as July approaches, the price of HBAR could fall to a key support level of 0.126 USD — the lowest level this token reached in April. This price level is currently serving as the main support threshold, and if the sell-off continues to push the price down.

HBAR 1-day price chart | Source: TradingViewNevertheless, one positive factor that could change this bearish outlook is the increase in demand from investors. If buyers continue to increase their strong demand, HBAR may break through the resistance level of 0.156 USD. If this happens, this token could return to an upward trend and even reach 0.166 USD, opening up the opportunity for a trend reversal, bringing the price back to a positive trajectory.

The value situation of HBAR in the coming days will depend heavily on changes in market sentiment. If pessimistic sentiment continues to prevail, the price of HBAR may fall sharply. Conversely, if there is a positive shift and strong buying pressure appears, this token could recover and exceed important resistance levels, opening up opportunities for value recovery.

Emma