The market value compared to the actual value of Bitcoin, or the MVRV ratio, remains one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for determining local and macro peaks and troughs in every BTC cycle. By isolating data across different investor groups and adjusting historical benchmarks to modern market conditions, we can generate more accurate insights into the next direction of Bitcoin.
The MVRV ratio of Bitcoin
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's market price to its actual price, which is essentially the average cost base for all coins in the network. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading around $105,000 while the actual price hovers near $47,000, bringing the raw MVRV to 2.26 The Z-Score version of MVRV normalizes this ratio based on historical volatility, allowing for clearer comparisons between different market cycles.
Short-term holder
Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less, currently have an effective price of nearly $97,000. This index often acts as dynamic support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market. Notably, when the MVRV of short-term holders reaches 1.33, local peaks have occurred, as seen multiple times in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. So far in the current cycle, this threshold has been hit four times, each followed by modest pullbacks.
long-term holders
Long-term BTC holders, those who have held BTC for over 155 days, currently have an average cost basis of just $33,500, bringing their MVRV up to 3.11. Historically, the MVRV value of long-term holders has reached a peak of 12 during major highs. That said, we are observing a trend of decreasing multiples in each cycle.
A major resistance range currently lies between 7.5 and 8.5, an area that has defined price peaks and pullbacks before dropping in every cycle since 2011. If the current growth rate of the actual price of (40 dollars/day) continues for another 140–150 days, in line with the length of previous cycles, we could see the price reach somewhere around 40,000 dollars. An MVRV peak of 8 would imply a price level close to 320,000 dollars.
Unlike static all-time metrics, the Z-Score MVRV rolling 2 years adapts to changing market dynamics. By recalculating the average extreme values in a rolling window, it smooths out the natural volatility decline of Bitcoin as it matures. Historically, this version has signaled overbought conditions when reaching levels above 3 and major accumulation zones when falling below -1. Currently below 1, this metric indicates that there is still significant upward momentum.
Time & Goals
The BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows chart shows that BTC is currently about 925 days away from the lowest point in the most recent cycle. Comparing history with previous bull markets indicates that we could be about 140 to 150 days away from a potential peak, with both the 2017 and 2021 peaks occurring around 1,060 to 1,070 days after their respective lows. Although not definitive, this correlation reinforces the overall picture of our position in the cycle. If the price trend materializes and the MVRV threshold continues on its current trajectory, late Q3 to early Q4 2025 could bring the final exciting moves.
Conclusion
The MVRV ratio and its derivatives remain essential tools for analyzing Bitcoin market behavior, providing clear signals for both accumulation and distribution. Whether observing short-term holders hovering near local peak thresholds, long-term holders approaching historically significant resistance zones, or adaptive metrics like the 2-year rolling Z-score MVRV signaling ample runway, these data points should be utilized in conjunction.
One should not rely on any single data point to predict peaks or troughs in isolation, but when combined, they provide a strong perspective for interpreting macro trends. As the market matures and volatility decreases, adaptive metrics will become even more important in staying ahead of the curve.
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Potential Price Rise Cycle Map of Bitcoin
The market value compared to the actual value of Bitcoin, or the MVRV ratio, remains one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for determining local and macro peaks and troughs in every BTC cycle. By isolating data across different investor groups and adjusting historical benchmarks to modern market conditions, we can generate more accurate insights into the next direction of Bitcoin. The MVRV ratio of Bitcoin The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's market price to its actual price, which is essentially the average cost base for all coins in the network. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading around $105,000 while the actual price hovers near $47,000, bringing the raw MVRV to 2.26 The Z-Score version of MVRV normalizes this ratio based on historical volatility, allowing for clearer comparisons between different market cycles.
Short-term holder Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less, currently have an effective price of nearly $97,000. This index often acts as dynamic support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market. Notably, when the MVRV of short-term holders reaches 1.33, local peaks have occurred, as seen multiple times in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. So far in the current cycle, this threshold has been hit four times, each followed by modest pullbacks.
long-term holders Long-term BTC holders, those who have held BTC for over 155 days, currently have an average cost basis of just $33,500, bringing their MVRV up to 3.11. Historically, the MVRV value of long-term holders has reached a peak of 12 during major highs. That said, we are observing a trend of decreasing multiples in each cycle.
A major resistance range currently lies between 7.5 and 8.5, an area that has defined price peaks and pullbacks before dropping in every cycle since 2011. If the current growth rate of the actual price of (40 dollars/day) continues for another 140–150 days, in line with the length of previous cycles, we could see the price reach somewhere around 40,000 dollars. An MVRV peak of 8 would imply a price level close to 320,000 dollars. Unlike static all-time metrics, the Z-Score MVRV rolling 2 years adapts to changing market dynamics. By recalculating the average extreme values in a rolling window, it smooths out the natural volatility decline of Bitcoin as it matures. Historically, this version has signaled overbought conditions when reaching levels above 3 and major accumulation zones when falling below -1. Currently below 1, this metric indicates that there is still significant upward momentum.
Time & Goals The BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows chart shows that BTC is currently about 925 days away from the lowest point in the most recent cycle. Comparing history with previous bull markets indicates that we could be about 140 to 150 days away from a potential peak, with both the 2017 and 2021 peaks occurring around 1,060 to 1,070 days after their respective lows. Although not definitive, this correlation reinforces the overall picture of our position in the cycle. If the price trend materializes and the MVRV threshold continues on its current trajectory, late Q3 to early Q4 2025 could bring the final exciting moves.
Conclusion The MVRV ratio and its derivatives remain essential tools for analyzing Bitcoin market behavior, providing clear signals for both accumulation and distribution. Whether observing short-term holders hovering near local peak thresholds, long-term holders approaching historically significant resistance zones, or adaptive metrics like the 2-year rolling Z-score MVRV signaling ample runway, these data points should be utilized in conjunction. One should not rely on any single data point to predict peaks or troughs in isolation, but when combined, they provide a strong perspective for interpreting macro trends. As the market matures and volatility decreases, adaptive metrics will become even more important in staying ahead of the curve.