2025 Market New Trends: Regulation, Technology, and Capital as the Three Driving Forces

1. Regulation: The U.S. “GENIUS Act” stablecoin bill has been passed, the EU MiCA is fully effective, and global regulatory convergence helps reduce compliance uncertainty.
2. Technology: The Ethereum Shanghai upgrade has been completed, EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) is about to go live, Layer 2 scaling speed has increased, reducing transaction fees and improving throughput.
3. Capital: The scale of institutional asset management continues to rise, with ETFs, trust products, and quantitative funds all making moves, and the net inflow of on-chain funds is showing an accelerating trend.

Mainstream Project Outlook: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Emerging Blue Chips

• Bitcoin (BTC): As digital gold, BTC remains a core allocation, expected to continue to be driven by inflation hedging and institutional demand, with prices likely oscillating in the range of $100,000 to $120,000.
• Ethereum (ETH): After the merge and Shanghai upgrade, ETH has become a major platform for Defi and NFT, with an annual burn rate increase, and the expected price range is $2,400–$3,000.
• Emerging blue chips: Projects like Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot each have their own characteristics in terms of speed and interoperability, making them suitable for small-scale allocations.

Segmented Track Opportunities: DeFi, NFT Financialization and Layer 2 Scalability

• DeFi: The locked value on lending and AMM platforms continues to grow, with stablecoin income and transaction fee dividends serving as sources of peer-to-peer earnings.
• NFT Financialization: NFT holders can obtain liquidity through installment financing, Fractional NFTs, and other methods. The market scale of NFT financialization is expected to exceed 50 billion USD this year.
• Layer2: Solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync benefit from Ethereum congestion and will see more ecological projects landing in the future.

Investment Practice: Key Points of Asset Allocation and Risk Management

1. Core Allocation: 60%–70% allocated to BTC and ETH, 30%–40% allocated to DeFi, Layer 2 & NFT projects.
2. Investment strategy: Use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) to buy in batches, smoothing out costs and reducing timing risks.
3. Take profit and stop loss: Set a reasonable dynamic take profit (such as selling off when increasing by 50%) and a fixed stop loss (stop loss at a 10% loss).
4. Information source: Pay attention to official announcements, on-chain data, and first-hand community dynamics to avoid blindly following trends.

Looking Ahead to 2026: Catalysts and Potential Black Swans

• Catalysts: Bitcoin halving expectations, Ethereum EIP-4844 fully unfolding, more ETF approvals.
• Risk points: global macro uncertainty (interest rate hikes, geopolitical conflicts), regulatory upheaval, key technology vulnerabilities.

By understanding the current status and trends of the crypto market in 2025, novice investors can grasp core assets while reasonably laying out in cutting-edge sectors, avoiding systemic risks, and winning the dividends of the next crypto bull market.