Gold Ten: Institutional outlook for the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision - possibly the first 25bp cut, the dot plot becomes the focus, Powell may turn dovish
Barclays: Expects a 25bp rate cut, with a total of 75bp rate cuts this year and 125bp rate cuts next year. Powell may signal further rate cuts, but will not provide clear guidance on the timing and pace of future rate cuts. 2. Yuexin Bank: Expects a 25bp rate cut, lowers core PCE inflation and GDP growth forecasts, and raises the unemployment rate forecast. The dot plot will indicate a total of 75bp rate cuts this year and 100bp rate cuts next year. The statement will emphasize data dependence. 3. Nomura Securities: Expects a 25bp rate cut, the dot plot indicates an additional 50bp rate cuts this year and 100bp rate cuts next year. The US dollar may initially rise by 50 points. Powell may turn dovish, emphasizing the deterioration of the labor market and reversing the rise in the US dollar. 4. Bank of America: Expects a 25bp rate cut, and the US dollar may subconsciously rise. The dot plot will indicate a total of 75bp rate cuts this year. Recent labor market trends make Powell inclined not to push back against market pricing, opening the door for a dovish interpretation. 5. Natixis: Expects a 25bp rate cut, a total of 50bp rate cuts this year and 150bp rate cuts next year. It also sees a significant risk of an earlier rate cut cycle, leading to an additional 25bp rate cut in the 2024 forecast. 6. DBS Bank: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25bp this week, and expects a total of 150bp rate cuts by the end of 2025. The market's reflected magnitude of rate cuts seems excessive, and aggressive pricing may result in disappointment and ultimately trigger panic. 7. Nordea Bank: Expects a 25bp rate cut for the first time, a 50bp rate cut would send the wrong signal. The current baseline expectation is for only one rate cut per quarter, and a 25bp rate cut remains the most likely path in the future.
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Gold Ten: Institutional outlook for the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision - possibly the first 25bp cut, the dot plot becomes the focus, Powell may turn dovish