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- 【Gate Daily Market Digest】📊
Unlock today’s key crypto market insights at a glance!
Top Gainers⭐️ $SNAKEAI $YBDBD $BASEPTL $FPFT $TMAI
Trending Coins🔥 $YBDBD $LAUNCHCOIN $SPX $MIRAI $ANIME
#FearGreedIndex# #TopGainers#
- #May CPI Incoming#
This Wednesday, the U.S. will release May CPI data — a key test for rate cut expectations. Cleveland Fed forecasts 2.4% YoY CPI (up from 2.3%), with core CPI flat.
💬 If inflation beats expectations, will the Fed still cut in June? Will you stay on the sidelines or take early action?
#Tech Giants Eye Stablecoins#
Apple, Google, Airbnb, and X are in talks to integrate stablecoins into their payment systems, aiming to cut fees and streamline global payments. Following Circle’s IPO surge, stablecoins are quickly gaining traction across tech and finance.
💬 Could stablecoins be - Trading Myth vs Reality: Rising Wedge
❌ Myth
"A rising wedge is a bullish signal; buy immediately once the pattern completes."
✅ Reality
Proper rising wedge trading requires confirmation:
1.A clear break below the lower line (2 confirmed closes)
2.Volume increase on the break
3.A pullback that doesn't break above the lower line
💡 How to trade correctly:
· Wait for the pullback after the break
· Set stop-loss above the upper line
· If price breaks above upper line, volume must confirm or it's a false breakout
- What are Gate Post Ambassadors? One article guides you through the responsibilities and benefits of being a Gate Post ambassador!👇️
BTC: Global Liquidity's "weather vane" Bosen CCG contract quantization robot
Author: Plain Language Blockchain. Transferred by: Boson Quantitative Consultant Xiaosun (bosen0722)
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Bitcoin is highly correlated with global Liquidity
The relationship between BTC and global Liquidity is very close. Studies have shown that BTC is in line with global Liquidity trends for 83% of any 12-month period, a higher percentage than any other major asset class.
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Global Liquidity refers to the total amount of funds available for spending, investing, and borrowing globally, and as an asset, the price of BTC usually fluctuates with changes in Liquidity. When Liquidity expands, the price of BTC rises; when Liquidity contracts, the price of BTC falls.
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How Liquidity Drives Asset Prices
Global liquidity has become a major driver of asset prices, especially in the wake of the global financial crisis, when the central bank's unconventional monetary policy pushed the market into a big deal by regulating the leverage of liquidity. Asset prices are no longer driven solely by fundamentals, and central bank policies have become the dominant force influencing markets. For example, Stanley Druckenmiller has pointed out that "most people in the market are looking for earnings and traditional metrics, and it's actually Liquidity that drives the market." ”
How to Measure Global Liquidity
There are various methods to measure the global Liquidity, and this article uses the broad money supply (M2) as the measurement indicator. M2 includes physical currency, demand deposits, savings deposits, etc., and is a reliable measure of global Liquidity. It is worth noting that global M2 is priced in US dollars, which directly affects global Liquidity. When the US dollar strengthens, the debt burden of various countries increases; and when the US dollar weakens, the debt burden decreases.
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BTC: The Purest Liquidity Barometer
BTC is known as the "Liquidity Barometer" because its price is highly correlated with global Liquidity changes. As Liquidity expands, BTC generally performs strongly; And when Liquidity contracted, BTC didn't perform well. Compared with stocks, gold and other assets, the performance of BTC can more directly reflect the impact of changes in Liquidity. This sensitivity of BTC makes it an important market bellwether.
The Liquidity Relationship between BTC and other assets
Compared to stocks, gold, and bonds, BTC has a more significant correlation with global liquidity. Stocks are often influenced by economic fundamentals and company performance and may not coincide with liquidity fluctuations. BTC, on the other hand, has no dividends or structural buying, and the price change is mainly driven by Liquidity, maintaining a high correlation. Gold's performance is also affected by Liquidity, but since it is a safe-haven asset, the price may still rise when Liquidity contracts, so the relationship with Liquidity is more complex.
The correlation between Quantitative Bitcoin and Liquidity
Based on the data from May 2013 to July 2024, the correlation between BTC price and global Liquidity reached 0.94, showing a very strong positive correlation. However, this correlation has decreased in the short term, especially in the 6-month rolling period, where the correlation dropped to 0.36. This indicates that the BTC price is more likely to be influenced by internal market factors in the short term rather than changes in Liquidity.
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Historical examples of BTCLiquidity breaks
Although BTC generally remains consistent with global Liquidity, there have been several ruptures in history. The main reasons are specific events in the market, such as major bankruptcies, hacker attacks, regulatory changes, etc., which may cause the BTC price to deviate from the Liquidity trend. The market crash of COVID-19 in 2020 is a typical example. Although Liquidity increased rapidly, BTC still experienced a sharp decline in the early stage.
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Supplier Dynamics and Bitcoin Liquidity Correlation
In addition to sudden events within the market, BTC's price fluctuations are also influenced by the supply side. During the peak of the bull run, old holders often choose to sell BTC, leading to increased Liquidity changes, thereby affecting the price of BTC. At these moments, the Liquidity correlation of BTC may temporarily break until new demand reactivates the market.
Conclusion: Liquidity is an important driver of BTC price
Global Liquidity has a significant impact on the price of BTC, and understanding this relationship can help investors identify market cycles, predict price movements, and manage risk effectively. Although the BTC price may be disrupted by market events in the short term, Global Liquidity remains a key driver of BTC market performance in the long term. For investors, paying attention to changes in the state of Liquidity will help to better predict the price movement of BTC and gain an advantage in market volatility.
What should ordinary people do?
[Without any investment and financial advice, there are risks in the currency circle, and investment needs to keep your eyes open!] 】
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I don't have much time to research, nor do I want to be distracted and contribute real money to others. I want to make profits steadily in the cryptocurrency industry. You can try quantitative strategies, such as using the CCR intelligent spot robot and CCG contract quantitative robot, to control positions reasonably, calculate the timing of entry and take profit through big data, and free up human resources!
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