Since the beginning of this year, only 9.02% of the small currency has outperformed the 72% increase of Bitcoin, which means that if you have invested in small coins before, only 10% The probability of not being able to outperform holding bitcoin is obviously not a good investment strategy, but from now on, gradually distribute the pie in your hand to some value tracks, and you may be able to get some excess returns. Of course, in asset allocation, never let the big pie in your hand fall below 50% of the position, unless you just take tens of thousands of dollars to come in and play casually.

The current market
The current market is dominated by Bitcoin spot ETFs, and there has been a surge in turnover of funds on the market, whether they are long-term holders or short-term holders, and the long-term holding tokens of more than one year have dropped from 71% to 68%, and this decline is expected to continue, and every round of bull market is the entry of over-the-counter funds, which completely covers the supply of the market, and there is a continuous rise. Therefore, we only need to observe whether the Bitcoin spot ETF can be sustained, and this data will guide the buying and selling of funds on and off the exchange, and ultimately guide the market trend.
As for when there will be a phased pullback, then observe when the ETF inflow continues to decrease, or even a net outflow, otherwise in such a high-pressure situation, it is difficult to continue the pullback, over-the-counter funds continue to flow in, ETFs buy a lot, and FOMO sentiment will contribute to the strength. After breaking through the 20,000 all-time high in 2021, it took only 4 months to reach the 69,000 high, so this year is a good year to make money.
Regarding the risk, there will be a certain amount of selling pressure around April, and the time point is close to halving (there is often a sharp pullback before and after the halving), and at the same time, it involves a large number of unlocking of some pledge tracks, involving the gradual clarification of interest rate cut expectations, the gradual normalization of ETFs, and the phased increase is too fast, and the correction of the monthly level is necessary.
The track of small coins
THE MAIN LINES INCLUDE PUBLIC CHAIN, BITCOIN LAYER 2, ETHEREUM RESTAKE, BRANCH AI, GAMEFI, MEME, COMPLIANCE COINS, INSCRIPTIONS, ETC.
Public Chain:
According to the logic of the last round of bull market, this round of bull market public chain will still become the object of big money supporters, the blockchain is still a long way from commercial use, we will continue to update the old chain on the way to solve the impossible triangle, or create a new public chain, the investment logic of the public chain is different from Bitcoin, Bitcoin is essentially a big MEME, relying on human consensus and scarcity, and the public chain can be valued like technology stocks, which will make Wall Street's top funds have the logic of buying.
$ETH: The largest public chain, POS continues to burn and even continue to deflation, this year there is an expectation that the ETF will be approved (as soon as May), and the subsequent increase will most likely outperform Bitcoin and be bullish on ETH/BTC.
$SOL: As the most recognized public chain in the United States, SOL has the characteristics of fast speed and low fees, although it is often down, but it has not affected his value, since the collapse of FTX, the price of SOL was once FUD to single digits, and now the value has returned, and it will also be the focus of traditional funds in the future.
The public chain in the back row, it is recommended to pay attention to the modular public chain, these public chains built on the data layer will be in direct competition with the Ethereum ecology in the later development, and it is possible to surpass it, it is worth winning excess returns, the allocation ratio is decided by everyone according to risk appetite, more optimistic about $TIA (DA layer leader), $DYM (COSMOS DA layer), there will be a bunch of new coins in the future of modularization, it is worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin Layer 2:
The second layer of bitcoin is an important track for the construction of bitcoin ecology, whether it is inscription trading, or DeFi on bitcoin, or copying all kinds of ecology that has been generated by Ethereum, the second layer of bitcoin network needs to be used, which will become the basis for the development of the bitcoin ecology in the future, they have made a great contribution to the rise of bitcoin, locked billions of dollars of bitcoin, which are still under construction (unissued), and the three projects worth looking forward to are $MERLIN, $B 2,$BABYLON. The basic components of the coin issuance are mainly based on $STX.
Ethereum Restake:
Ethereum Restake has become an innovation in Ethereum applications, they will take the stETH of Ethereum's own son LIDO for secondary pledge, superimpose a round of income, and further lock Ethereum, which is very flavorful of DeFi Summer in 2020, and the future has trend hype expectations, and the current stage is staking points, and the more noteworthy projects are eigenlayer, renzo, kelp, etherfi, puffer, etc. In addition, the basic component that benefits from these LSD tracks is $SSV, which has not risen much, so you can pay attention to it. There is also an interest rate swap protocol, $PENDLE, which has also eaten the dividends of Restake.
AI：
Like the Depin track, it is currently a relatively difficult sector to land, the centralized learning of AI data and the decentralized spirit of the blockchain are contrary, but it is better than the Depin plate in the field of AI innovation and landing, and the speculation and speculation in the currency circle will appear intermittently, which is a good speculative sector with a short-term trend. Front-row focus (low return and low risk): $TAO, $FET, $AGIX, and back-row focus (high return, high risk) $AI, $NFP, $NMR
GameFi:
Blockchain + games are booming, but the explosion out of the circle has not yet been presented, and there will be more hype expectations, such as $GALA, $YGG, and application platforms, and new coins, and old coins, $AI, $XAI, and $PORTAL.
MEME:
The crazy zoo in 2021 is impressive, and SHIB's tens of thousands of times increase is even more jaw-dropping, if you follow the first principle of the currency circle, that is, speculative speculation and speculation of air coins, so MEME will still have phased opportunities in the future bull market, and may rise very much, more optimistic about $PEPE (the strongest consensus) $WIF (the only one on Robinhood like shit)$TRUMP, after this round of rises, I have to take a break, looking forward to the next round of performance of MEME.
Compliant Coins:
Orthodox Americans can only play U.S.-compliant tokens, and the same is true for institutions, so these coins will have more opportunities to be bought by funds, so I won't recommend them.
Inscription:
The development behind this track is likely to be similar to the path of Ethereum NFT at that time, gradually losing liquidity after speculation, there is no price in the market, the current track liquidity is still abundant, there is no problem in doing some speculation, I am more optimistic about some cross-chain applications, such as $MUBI, $ORDS, and the rest is to speculate consensus, such as $SATS, $RATS, the future development is limited, and the speculation is the sentiment of small funds.
Store:
With the maturity of the Internet, the development of AI and blockchain, more and more data, and more and more space occupied, it can be seen from NVIDIA's continuous new high that people's demand for chips is growing explosively, and storage has naturally become a big beneficiary, all of which are relatively old tokens, $FIL, $AR, and $STORJ.
Opportunities will also appear in many tracks, such as SOL ecology, cross-chain interoperability, high throughput public chain, various applications, etc., in short, do more research before investing, the bull market in the currency circle will not disappoint anyone, please be kind to 2024 ~ go out less and make more money. It's a bit long to write, thank you all for reading.