Macroeconomic and Crypto Assets Market Dynamics

Federal Reserve Policy Outlook and Economic Environment

Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting show that participants are generally concerned about the rising risks of inflation, especially considering the tariffs and immigration policies that the government may implement. Almost all attendees believe that the timing for slowing the pace of monetary policy easing is approaching, reflecting confidence in the continued strength of economic activity.

Although this meeting has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5%, officials are cautious about future rate cuts. The total expected rate cut for the entire year of 2025 may only be 75 basis points. The market generally expects that the meeting at the end of this month will maintain the interest rate unchanged, with the first rate cut possibly being postponed until June.

The meeting noted that although inflation has eased in the past year, recent data above expectations and policy uncertainty have left participants uneasy about the future inflation outlook. The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the current economic situation requires more cautious monetary policy decisions, suggesting that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow in the coming months to respond to the changing economic environment.

Crypto Assets Regulation and Market Challenges

The outgoing chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission emphasized again the urgency of regulatory legislation for Crypto Assets. He anticipates that the legislative process may take six to ten months, and subsequent rule-making could last a year. He mentioned that while some legislative efforts pushed by certain lawmakers are not perfect, they are still positive attempts, believing that existing regulations are struggling to address the challenges of the Crypto Assets market and that there is an urgent need to update and improve the regulatory framework.

At the same time, the rise in global bond yields has begun to attract market attention. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen to 4.70%, close to a multi-year high. The yield on the 30-year U.K. government bond has also reached 5.35%, the highest level since 1998. These changes may affect investors' choices between Crypto Assets and other high-risk assets, posing a challenge to the sustained bull market in the crypto market.

Industry Trends and Innovations

The mobile casual game company Gomble Games, supported by a laboratory and other investment institutions from a trading platform, has over 110 million global users and plans to become the first large casual game to expand to a specific application layer.

Sonic SVM and Galaxy Interactive have jointly launched a new fund focusing on Web3 game innovation, AI agent development, and content creation. The fund aims to provide game developers with infrastructure and tools to create autonomous virtual characters and to offer users specialized monetization tools and gaming experiences.

The CEO of Sonic SVM emphasized that this fund will promote the integration of gaming, artificial intelligence, and social platforms, believing that "the future of gaming lies in the combination of high-performance infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and social connections."

Market Hotspots

Recently, a crypto assets project named $Smelt has sparked heated discussions. Its inspiration comes from a political controversy in California, involving the governor's decisions in responding to wildfires. The project quickly attracted community attention, with a market value reaching 6 million dollars at one point. It is noteworthy that this crypto assets is automatically issued by AI.

In addition, the U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to sell approximately $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, which comes from seized assets in a certain case. Although it has been approved, the specific timing of the sale has not yet been determined. This news has had a certain impact on the market, leading to a slight decline in the price of Bitcoin.

Overall, the Crypto Assets market is facing various challenges and opportunities related to regulation, macroeconomics, and policies, as the industry continues to seek a balance between innovation and compliance.