The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision meeting this Wednesday, and will update the interest rate dot plot and economic forecast summary during this session. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold, keeping the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, the failure to reach a consensus on interest rate cuts in four consecutive meetings may trigger another fierce attack from President Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell as a "slowpoke" on social media and threatened to replace him.
The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate decision is imminent, and the market is expected to remain inactive.
The Federal Reserve (FED) officials will hold a meeting from June 17 to 18, and will release a statement at 2:00 AM Taiwan time on June 19, with Chairman Powell holding a press conference at 2:30.
The market widely expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal benchmark interest rate within the range of 4.25%-4.50%. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch tool, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at this week's meeting is only about 3.1%, indicating that the vast majority of investors expect the Federal Reserve to stand pat. This expectation is consistent with the Federal Reserve's recent cautious stance, especially after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, during which the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for three consecutive meetings.
Inflation and tariff uncertainty affect decision-making
The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Jerome Powell ( stated in a previous meeting that inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, and the uncertainty of tariff policies may drive up prices, increasing inflationary pressures. The market believes that the Federal Reserve (FED) may adopt a wait-and-see approach due to rising inflation risks and economic uncertainties, waiting for more data to assess the timing of future rate cuts.
Recently, Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has also introduced another uncertainty to the global economy.
Bitmap and economic forecasts are receiving considerable attention.
Market focus will be on the Federal Reserve's updated interest rate dot plot and economic projections summary for this quarter. This is the first announcement since Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2, when comprehensive tariffs were announced.
Some Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, have indicated a willingness to cut interest rates as they believe that as long as inflation expectations remain stable, policymakers can treat the anticipated impact of tariffs on consumer prices as temporary. This is consistent with market indicators showing that traders also believe the rise in tariff prices will be short-lived.
However, Matthew Luzzetti, the chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, stated that if officials raise inflation expectations, they anticipate that the number of rate cuts this year may decrease from two to one. Barclays strategists warned in a report to clients that such a "hawkish" unexpected rate cut could occur.
Some analysts also predict that considering the enormous uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of Trump's policies, The Federal Reserve (FED) officials may simply maintain their forecasts unchanged.
Can Powell withstand Trump's pressure?
Some economists say that the timing of the Federal Reserve's next moves will ultimately depend on how long it takes for Trump's policies to be reflected in economic data, and to what extent this will trigger concerns about an economic recession.
A survey conducted by Bloomberg from June 6 to 11 showed that 42% of respondents predicted that The Federal Reserve (FED) would keep the Intrerest Rate unchanged until more specific signs of economic weakness appeared.
However, the failure to reach a rate cut agreement in four consecutive meetings may trigger another fierce attack from President Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell as a "slowpoke" on social media and threatened to replace him. Nevertheless, Powell remains unmoved and emphasizes the independence of The Federal Reserve (FED). Powell's term as chairman of the FED will expire in May 2026. He has stated that even in the face of political pressure, he will not resign voluntarily and plans to serve his full term.
This article Countdown to The Federal Reserve (FED) decision! The market bets that Powell will hold steady, first appearing in Chain News ABMedia.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
The Federal Reserve (FED) decision countdown! The market bets that Powell will hold steady.
The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision meeting this Wednesday, and will update the interest rate dot plot and economic forecast summary during this session. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold, keeping the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, the failure to reach a consensus on interest rate cuts in four consecutive meetings may trigger another fierce attack from President Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell as a "slowpoke" on social media and threatened to replace him.
The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate decision is imminent, and the market is expected to remain inactive.
The Federal Reserve (FED) officials will hold a meeting from June 17 to 18, and will release a statement at 2:00 AM Taiwan time on June 19, with Chairman Powell holding a press conference at 2:30.
The market widely expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal benchmark interest rate within the range of 4.25%-4.50%. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch tool, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at this week's meeting is only about 3.1%, indicating that the vast majority of investors expect the Federal Reserve to stand pat. This expectation is consistent with the Federal Reserve's recent cautious stance, especially after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, during which the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for three consecutive meetings.
Inflation and tariff uncertainty affect decision-making
The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Jerome Powell ( stated in a previous meeting that inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, and the uncertainty of tariff policies may drive up prices, increasing inflationary pressures. The market believes that the Federal Reserve (FED) may adopt a wait-and-see approach due to rising inflation risks and economic uncertainties, waiting for more data to assess the timing of future rate cuts.
Recently, Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has also introduced another uncertainty to the global economy.
Bitmap and economic forecasts are receiving considerable attention.
Market focus will be on the Federal Reserve's updated interest rate dot plot and economic projections summary for this quarter. This is the first announcement since Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2, when comprehensive tariffs were announced.
Some Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, have indicated a willingness to cut interest rates as they believe that as long as inflation expectations remain stable, policymakers can treat the anticipated impact of tariffs on consumer prices as temporary. This is consistent with market indicators showing that traders also believe the rise in tariff prices will be short-lived.
However, Matthew Luzzetti, the chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, stated that if officials raise inflation expectations, they anticipate that the number of rate cuts this year may decrease from two to one. Barclays strategists warned in a report to clients that such a "hawkish" unexpected rate cut could occur.
Some analysts also predict that considering the enormous uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of Trump's policies, The Federal Reserve (FED) officials may simply maintain their forecasts unchanged.
Can Powell withstand Trump's pressure?
Some economists say that the timing of the Federal Reserve's next moves will ultimately depend on how long it takes for Trump's policies to be reflected in economic data, and to what extent this will trigger concerns about an economic recession.
A survey conducted by Bloomberg from June 6 to 11 showed that 42% of respondents predicted that The Federal Reserve (FED) would keep the Intrerest Rate unchanged until more specific signs of economic weakness appeared.
However, the failure to reach a rate cut agreement in four consecutive meetings may trigger another fierce attack from President Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell as a "slowpoke" on social media and threatened to replace him. Nevertheless, Powell remains unmoved and emphasizes the independence of The Federal Reserve (FED). Powell's term as chairman of the FED will expire in May 2026. He has stated that even in the face of political pressure, he will not resign voluntarily and plans to serve his full term.
This article Countdown to The Federal Reserve (FED) decision! The market bets that Powell will hold steady, first appearing in Chain News ABMedia.