Coinbase Institutional has just pointed out three major trends that will shape the crypto market in the second half of 2025, including: improving macro outlook, increasing short term demand from businesses, and greater clarity in the regulatory framework.
According to the report, these factors could lead to strong growth and structural changes throughout the digital asset ecosystem.
3 trends that will shape the crypto market in late 2025
The first trend highlighted by Coinbase is the improving macroeconomic outlook, with the risk of recession significantly reduced.
"We may witness an economic slowdown or mild recession this year – or even completely avoid a recession – rather than falling into a scenario of severe recession or stagflation," the report said.
Crypto market capitalization based on the percentage of global liquidity | Source: CoinbaseThe report noted a more positive outlook for U.S. economic growth, especially as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut interest rates at the end of 2025.
Based on the increasing liquidity indicators such as the M2 money supply of the U.S. and the balance sheets of global central banks continuing to expand, Coinbase believes that "current conditions are unlikely to cause asset prices to return to 2024 levels," implying that the upward trend of Bitcoin is likely to continue. This lays the foundation for the growth of the total crypto market capitalization, especially in the context of controlled inflation and supportive fiscal policy.
The second factor is strong short term demand from businesses, as more and more companies view cryptocurrency as a tool for asset allocation.
According to Coinbase, there are currently about 228 publicly listed companies holding a total of 820,000 BTC worldwide, some of which have also invested in ETH, SOL, and XRP.
According to Galaxy Digital, there are currently about 20 companies implementing a leveraged funding strategy that Strategy has pioneered.
New accounting regulations from FASB (The Financial Accounting Standards Board) allow digital assets to be recorded at fair market value, instead of only recognizing losses as before, thereby encouraging more participation from the corporate sector.
A new trend that is emerging is the increase in publicly listed crypto investment vehicles – companies that focus solely on accumulating crypto through the issuance of stocks or convertible bonds. However, this trend also carries risks, including forced selling pressure ( due to bond debt ) and active selling based on internal decisions ( that erodes market confidence ).
However, short term risks remain low, as most debts mature between 2029 and 2030. With a reasonable loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, large enterprises can fully refinance without needing to sell assets, thereby continuing to accumulate crypto in the second half of 2025.
Unpaid debts of selected companies according to the final maturity date | Source: CoinbaseThe third trend is a clearer legal framework, with significant progress in laws regarding stablecoins and the structure of the crypto market.
Unlike the previous approach of "management through coercion", the White House and the U.S. Congress are currently promoting a comprehensive legal framework.
In particular, bills related to stablecoins such as the STABLE Act and the GENIUS Act are expected to create breakthroughs by establishing regulations on asset reserve requirements, anti-money laundering compliance (AML), and user protection.
These bills may be consolidated in August 2025. Regarding the crypto market structure law, bills such as the CLARITY Act help clarify the regulatory roles between the CFTC and SEC, based on the foundation of FIT21, thereby increasing transparency and consistency in the management of the digital asset market.
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Coinbase: 3 trends shaping the crypto market in the second half of 2025
Coinbase Institutional has just pointed out three major trends that will shape the crypto market in the second half of 2025, including: improving macro outlook, increasing short term demand from businesses, and greater clarity in the regulatory framework.
According to the report, these factors could lead to strong growth and structural changes throughout the digital asset ecosystem.
3 trends that will shape the crypto market in late 2025
The first trend highlighted by Coinbase is the improving macroeconomic outlook, with the risk of recession significantly reduced.
"We may witness an economic slowdown or mild recession this year – or even completely avoid a recession – rather than falling into a scenario of severe recession or stagflation," the report said.
Based on the increasing liquidity indicators such as the M2 money supply of the U.S. and the balance sheets of global central banks continuing to expand, Coinbase believes that "current conditions are unlikely to cause asset prices to return to 2024 levels," implying that the upward trend of Bitcoin is likely to continue. This lays the foundation for the growth of the total crypto market capitalization, especially in the context of controlled inflation and supportive fiscal policy.
The second factor is strong short term demand from businesses, as more and more companies view cryptocurrency as a tool for asset allocation.
According to Coinbase, there are currently about 228 publicly listed companies holding a total of 820,000 BTC worldwide, some of which have also invested in ETH, SOL, and XRP.
According to Galaxy Digital, there are currently about 20 companies implementing a leveraged funding strategy that Strategy has pioneered.
New accounting regulations from FASB (The Financial Accounting Standards Board) allow digital assets to be recorded at fair market value, instead of only recognizing losses as before, thereby encouraging more participation from the corporate sector.
A new trend that is emerging is the increase in publicly listed crypto investment vehicles – companies that focus solely on accumulating crypto through the issuance of stocks or convertible bonds. However, this trend also carries risks, including forced selling pressure ( due to bond debt ) and active selling based on internal decisions ( that erodes market confidence ).
However, short term risks remain low, as most debts mature between 2029 and 2030. With a reasonable loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, large enterprises can fully refinance without needing to sell assets, thereby continuing to accumulate crypto in the second half of 2025.
Unlike the previous approach of "management through coercion", the White House and the U.S. Congress are currently promoting a comprehensive legal framework.
In particular, bills related to stablecoins such as the STABLE Act and the GENIUS Act are expected to create breakthroughs by establishing regulations on asset reserve requirements, anti-money laundering compliance (AML), and user protection.
These bills may be consolidated in August 2025. Regarding the crypto market structure law, bills such as the CLARITY Act help clarify the regulatory roles between the CFTC and SEC, based on the foundation of FIT21, thereby increasing transparency and consistency in the management of the digital asset market.
Minh Anh