On June 9, QCP Capital posted on its official channel, "As summer approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) remains operating in a narrow range, and implied volatility continues to be under pressure. While the current implied volatility is at a one-year low and appears to be "cheap" on the surface, the actual volatility is even lower. Historical data over the past two years shows that short-term options volatility tends to decline further before July of each year. A similar trend occurred in the same period last year. A definitive breakout of Bitcoin below $100,000 or above $110,000 could reignite widespread interest. But at the moment, there are no obvious short-term catalysts to drive this trend. Although the recent macro news caused temporary volatility, most of them were seen as "noise" by the market, which quickly subsided and failed to trigger a directional breakout. Even though last Friday's better-than-expected U.S. jobs data drove U.S. stocks up and gold fell, Bitcoin remained unfazed, caught in the staggered influence of multiple macro factors, and lacked a clear direction anchor. Without a convincing narrative driving a new rally, the market is showing signs of weakness. Perpetual contract open interest is decreasing, and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun to slow. Options trading over the past week has also reflected this wait-and-see state in the market. We're seeing a large number of upside calls expiring in July being rolled over to September, and the size of the deal is not small, suggesting that investors are pushing off bullish expectations further into time."
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QCP Capital: Bitcoin maintains low fluctuation with a lack of breakthrough momentum, market watchful sentiment intensifies.
On June 9, QCP Capital posted on its official channel, "As summer approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) remains operating in a narrow range, and implied volatility continues to be under pressure. While the current implied volatility is at a one-year low and appears to be "cheap" on the surface, the actual volatility is even lower. Historical data over the past two years shows that short-term options volatility tends to decline further before July of each year. A similar trend occurred in the same period last year. A definitive breakout of Bitcoin below $100,000 or above $110,000 could reignite widespread interest. But at the moment, there are no obvious short-term catalysts to drive this trend. Although the recent macro news caused temporary volatility, most of them were seen as "noise" by the market, which quickly subsided and failed to trigger a directional breakout. Even though last Friday's better-than-expected U.S. jobs data drove U.S. stocks up and gold fell, Bitcoin remained unfazed, caught in the staggered influence of multiple macro factors, and lacked a clear direction anchor. Without a convincing narrative driving a new rally, the market is showing signs of weakness. Perpetual contract open interest is decreasing, and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun to slow. Options trading over the past week has also reflected this wait-and-see state in the market. We're seeing a large number of upside calls expiring in July being rolled over to September, and the size of the deal is not small, suggesting that investors are pushing off bullish expectations further into time."