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The largest stablecoin, Tether, has more than five times the market capitalization of Circle.
Paolo Ardoino, CEO of the leading stablecoin Tether, announced on the 8th that the company's market capitalization could reach $515 billion (approximately ¥75 trillion) if it were to go public. This scale would rank it 19th among global companies, surpassing retail giant Costco and beverage manufacturer Coca-Cola. He also denied any plans for an IPO.
Mr. Aldoino's comments are seen as a response to the successful initial public offering (IPO) of the competing company Circle. Circle went public on the 5th of last week, and its stock soared to over $103.75 on the first day, compared to the offering price of $31, starting with a market capitalization of $30 billion.
As a basis for its estimate, Tether stated that out of the projected net income of 13 billion dollars in 2024, 7 billion dollars will come from government bonds and repo transactions, while the remaining 5 billion dollars will be composed of unrealized gains from Bitcoin and gold. The company anticipates increasing the supply of USDT by 50 to 60 billion dollars in 2025, with an average supply of 170 billion dollars and assuming a US interest rate of 4.2%, it expects an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of 7.4 billion dollars.
If we apply Circle's EBITDA multiple of 69.3 times, the calculation would yield an enterprise value of 7.4 billion dollars × 69.3 times = 515 billion dollars. However, Mr. Aldoino himself has expressed the view that "this multiple is abnormal and difficult to maintain," emphasizing that it is a conservative estimate.
He indicated that the actual corporate value could further increase, considering the increase in holdings of Bitcoin and gold, while expressing a policy of "maintaining a humble attitude and seriously working towards the next stage of growth."
According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, Tether currently holds 100,521 BTC (1.5 trillion yen) and 50 tons of gold (approximately 860 billion yen). On the other hand, Circle does not own any Bitcoin or gold.