BTC Weekly Fluctuation Review (May 26 - June 2)

June 2nd, 4 PM Hong Kong Time) 105.4 thousand dollars), ETH fell 2.7% against USD (2,580

In the past week, despite the retracement of bitcoin from its highs, the price of the coin has basically corrected sideways, which has not affected the overall upward trend. We maintain the belief that the market will try to break out to the upside again in the next few weeks or months, which may push us to the ultimate target of $120-130 thousand. Of course, the exact timing is difficult to determine, and if the support level of 99-101 thousand dollars does not hold, then the complete completion of this wave of growth may be postponed until the end of summer. At the moment, we believe that a slight drop below the support level can strategically increase long positions or re-buy. If the price does fall below $99,000, the price may fall to the $93-94,000 range. Above the coin price, the first resistance level is seen at $108-109 thousand, followed by a new high of $112 thousand. Market Theme Risk markets saw a brief rally after the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled in mid-last week that the Trump administration's use of the International Economic Emergency Rights Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs was illegal. However, the stock market did not follow suit, and the risk rally that began in early April seems to have reached its limit. At the same time, volatility across all assets hit new lows, further confirming that the market is exhausted and significantly reduced. Overall, markets are looking forward to the upcoming summer holidays, not worrying about any possible surprises, but also turning a deaf ear to some negative headlines (such as Trump's tweet on Friday that China has violated trade deals). Bitcoin's staggering gains finally lost momentum last week, ending the week on a losing page for the first time in 2 months (based on Friday's close in New York). Total inflows into IBIT ETFs exceeded $6 billion in May. The downward correction was mainly technical, with some short-term leveraged longs liquidated, but overall the actual volatility remained low. As long as this continues, we should continue to see passive inflows in the small decline, especially given the USD-related market weakness due to US policy uncertainty. BTC ATM Implied Volatility

The previous week's breakout of key levels to all-time highs, followed by a rapid decline in Trump's comments on EU tariffs, led to a brief rise in real volatility. After that, the real volatility continued to fall last week. Despite the wide range of coin activity last week, the actual volatility of the high frequencies was only at the mid-30s level. With the price back in the $103-$106,000 range that has stuck us for weeks, we expect the activity to remain quiet barring unexpected catalysts, while continuing to depress real volatility, eventually putting pressure on implied volatility and a double-sell strike outside the range, resulting in more and more long gammas in the market. The term structure is still steep, and the market is still struggling to support the June-September bulls with short-term shorts. At the same time, as the Las Vegas meeting failed to produce any surprises, the actual volatility was very quiet, and the short-term maturity fell sharply again. This makes it more difficult to continue selling front-end support forwards and puts further pressure on June/July volatility. BTC Skewness/Kurtosis

Skewness is more skewed to the downside this week, in line with the short-term market momentum turn. The market's lack of interest in buying upside options even when they reach all-time highs, while continuing to sell when the price of the currency rises slightly to reduce exposure, has led to a reluctance to buy call options at a premium. At the same time, the market is aware of the danger below the price of the coin, which could be very jumpy if the price falls below the support level of $99-101 thousand or if the risk asset winds change. The kurtosis has been largely sideways over the past week, with a slight decline. Because there are people who continue to sell the strike price on the wing side, and the market is trying to support long positions on both sides of the intermediate strike price and the coin price, they are willing to sell slightly lower on both sides to mitigate Theta's losses. Considering the current fairly restrained price movement and the rapid rise in actual volatility (and implied volatility, skewness) after breaking out of the range, we think it is well worth taking a long wing position at this time. Wishing everyone good luck this week!