Musk's latest speech: Mars may become Earth's savior, TSL Bots will head there next year, human civilization structure will be rewritten.

Stay away from politics and focus on technology, this is Musk's recent slogan.

Due to X/xAI and Tesla being in a critical technology release period, he recently announced on social media that he would devote all his energy to these tech companies, even going so far as to sleep on the factory floor, reminiscent of that all-out, vigorous "007状态".

However, none of this brought him good news.

Even with on-site supervision, he still found it difficult to reverse the Starship's "three consecutive kneels" curse. However, just now, SpaceX released a keynote speech hosted by Musk: Making Life Multiplanetary.

There is no worse moment than the first Starship explosion, yet Musk's dream of Mars continues. As he said:

You hope to feel that the future will become better every morning when you wake up — this is the very meaning of becoming a space civilization. It means having confidence in the future, believing that tomorrow will be better than yesterday. And I can't think of anything more exciting than stepping into space and being amidst the stars.

The key points are summarized as follows:

SpaceX is expanding its production capacity, aiming to produce 1,000 Starships per year.

Even if Earth's supply is interrupted, SpaceX plans to enable Mars to have self-developing capabilities, achieving "civilizational resilience," and possibly rescuing Earth when problems arise.

SpaceX's next key technology is to "catch" the Starship main body, with plans to demonstrate this technology later this year, expecting tests to take place within the next two to three months. The Starship will be placed on top of the booster, refueled, and launched again.

The third generation versions of the Starship, Raptor 3, and booster will possess key capabilities such as rapid reusability, reliable operation, and orbital propellant refueling, expected to be realized in the Starship 3.0 version. The first launch is planned for the end of the year.

The upcoming rocket version is sufficient to support humanity's goal of multi-planetary survival, and will continue to improve efficiency, enhance capabilities, reduce costs per ton, and lower the expenses for traveling to Mars.

The launch window for Mars opens every 26 months, with the next one occurring at the end of next year (about 18 months from now).

During the future Mars window period, SpaceX plans to send humans to Mars, provided that the previous unmanned mission successfully lands. If all goes well, the next launch will achieve manned landing on Mars and begin infrastructure construction.

To ensure the success of the mission, SpaceX may conduct an Optimus robot landing mission as a test for the third launch to ensure the smooth progress of the crewed mission.

Attached is the original video link:

Make humanity a multi-planetary species

Alright, let's start today's speech. The gateway to Mars has been opened, and we are now at the newly established "Star Base" in Texas.

This should be the first time in decades that a new city is built in the United States, or at least that's what I heard. The name is also very cool, and it's called this because we will develop the technology here that humanity, civilization, and the life we know need to first step onto another planet—something unprecedented in the 4.5 billion year history of Earth.

Let’s take a look at this short video. At first, there was basically nothing here. Initially, it was just a sandbar. Nothing at all? Even those few small facilities we built were of course constructed later.

That was the original "Mad Max" rocket. It was also at that time we realized that lighting up this "Mad Max" rocket is really important.

Yes, a few years ago this place was basically desolate. In just five or six years, thanks to the outstanding efforts of the SpaceX team, we have built a small city, a giant launch pad, and a huge factory for manufacturing giant rockets.

Even better, anyone who sees this video can actually come and visit in person. Our entire production facility and launch site are located next to a public road. This means that anyone coming to South Texas can see the rockets and tour the factory up close.

So, as long as you're interested in the largest aircraft on Earth, you can come anytime, just drive along that road, it's really cool. Then we walked all the way to now - Starship Base, 2025.

We have now reached a level where we can manufacture a spacecraft roughly every two to three weeks. Of course, we do not produce one fixed spacecraft every two or three weeks, as we are still continuously upgrading the design. But our ultimate goal is to produce 1,000 spacecraft per year, which is three spacecraft per day.

This is the current progress. I am now standing in that building. That is our hovercraft. We are transporting a booster to the launch site, and you can see those mega bays.

As I mentioned before, the coolest thing for friends watching this video is that you can really come here directly, drive along this road and see it all with your own eyes. This is the first time in history that there has been such an opportunity. The road on the left, that is a highway, open to the public. You can come anytime to take a look. I highly recommend making a trip here; I think it’s truly inspiring.

We are expanding our integration capabilities to achieve the goal of producing 1,000 starships per year. Although it is not completed yet, we are building it. This is a true mega project, and by some standards, it may become one of the largest buildings in the world. Its design goal is to produce 1,000 starships annually. We are also constructing another facility in Florida, so we will have two production bases in Texas and Florida.

It's actually very difficult to judge how big these buildings are just by looking at them. You need to place a person next to them for comparison; only by seeing how small the person is standing next to the building can you truly realize its massive scale.

If we compare it with "the number of vehicles produced each year", for example, the number of airplanes manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, at some point in the future, the annual production of Starship may be on par with the commercial airplanes of Boeing and Airbus. The scale of this project is really enormous.

Moreover, the cargo capacity of each starship far exceeds that of the Boeing 747 or Airbus A380, truly earning the title of "behemoth."

Next is the content regarding Starlink satellites, with an annual production of about 5,000 third-generation satellites, which may approach 10,000 in the future. Each third-generation satellite is roughly the size of a Boeing 737, which is very large. It is not an exaggeration to compare it with the B-24 bomber from World War II.

Of course, this scale is still small compared to Tesla. In the future, Tesla's annual production might be two or even three times this.

These comparisons help us establish a concept: in fact, it is feasible to manufacture a large number of starships for interstellar travel. Even from the perspective of total tonnage, companies like Tesla and other car manufacturers are still producing more complex and higher-volume products than SpaceX.

In other words, these seemingly exaggerated numbers are actually fully achievable by humans, as other industries have already accomplished similar scales.

Our progress, measured by a standard, is the time needed to achieve a self-sustaining civilization on Mars. Each launch of the Starship, especially in the early stages, is a process of continuous learning and exploration, laying the foundation for humanity to become a multi-planetary species, continuously improving the Starship to ultimately send thousands, or even millions, of people to Mars.

In an ideal situation, anyone who wants to go to Mars can achieve this dream, and we can also transport all the equipment needed for Mars to become self-sufficient, allowing the society there to develop independently.

Even in the worst-case scenario, we must reach such a critical turning point: even if the supply from Earth is disrupted, Mars can continue to develop. At that point, we achieve "civilizational resilience"—even when serious problems occur on Earth, Mars may in turn rescue Earth.

Of course, it could also be Earth assisting Mars. But most importantly, the coexistence of two powerful planets that can operate independently will be crucial for the long-term survival of human civilization.

I believe that any civilization that is multi-planetary could have its lifespan extended by ten times, or even far beyond that number. In contrast, a single-planet civilization always faces some unpredictable threats, such as humanity's self-destructive conflicts—like a third world war (which we hope will never happen), as well as natural disasters like asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions.

If we only have one planet, then once a disaster occurs, civilization may come to an end; but if we have two planets, we can continue to survive and even expand further to places beyond Mars, such as the asteroid belt, the moons of Jupiter, and even farther locations, ultimately entering other star systems.

We can truly walk among the stars and make "science fiction" no longer just a fantasy.

In order to achieve this goal, we must build a "rapidly reusable" rocket that minimizes the cost of each flight and the cost per ton sent to Mars. This requires the rocket to have the capability for rapid reuse.

In fact, we often joke internally that it’s like a "Fast, Reusable, Reliable Rocket," the three "R's," just like a pirate's shout "RRRR"; the key is these three "R's."

The SpaceX team has made remarkable progress in capturing giant rockets.

Think about it, our team has successfully "caught" the largest man-made aircraft in the air multiple times, using a very novel method—catching it from the air with giant "chopsticks." This is truly an incredible technological breakthrough.

I want to ask, have you ever seen a scene like this before?

Congratulations again everyone, this is truly an incredible achievement. The reason we need to "catch" the rocket in this unprecedented way is that it is crucial for achieving rapid reusability of the rocket.

The Super Heavy Booster is massive, with a diameter of about 30 feet (approximately 9 meters). If it lands on the platform with landing legs,

We still need to lift it up again, retract the landing legs, and put it back on the launch platform, which is quite a complex operation. If we could use the same tower, which is the one originally installed on the launch platform, to directly catch it from the air and put it back in place, that would be the best solution for achieving rapid reuse.

That is to say, the rocket is caught by the same pair of mechanical arms that initially placed it on the launch pad, and then immediately put back in its launch position.

In theory, the super heavy booster can be relaunched within an hour after landing.

The flight process itself only takes 5 to 6 minutes, after which it is caught by the tower arm and returned to the launch pad. It takes about another 30 to 40 minutes to replenish the propellant, and then the spacecraft is placed back on top—ideally, this means we could achieve a launch every hour, or at most every two hours.

This is the ultimate state of rocket reusability.

The next big thing we need to do is to "catch" the main body of the starship (Ship). We haven't achieved this yet, but we will definitely accomplish it.

We hope to demonstrate this technology later this year, possibly within the next two to three months for testing. After that, the starship will be placed on top of the booster, refueled, and take off again.

However, the reflight time of the Starship will be slightly longer than that of the booster, as it needs to orbit the Earth a few times until its flight path returns over the launch site. Nevertheless, the Starship also plans to achieve multiple repetitive flights daily.

This is the new generation "Raptor 3" engine, which performs exceptionally well. We should give a thumbs up to the Raptor team; this is really exciting.

The design concept of the Raptor 3 engine eliminates the need for a traditional heat shield, greatly reducing the weight at the bottom of the engine while also improving reliability. For example, if there is a small fuel leak in the Raptor engine, the fuel will directly leak into the already hot plasma, which essentially causes no issues. However, if the engine is enclosed in a structural box, such a leak would be very dangerous.

So this is Raptor 3. We may need to test it several more times, but this engine has made tremendous leaps in payload capacity, fuel efficiency, and reliability. It can be said that it is a revolutionary rocket engine.

I would even say that the Raptor 3 is almost like a product of "alien technology."

In fact, when we first showed the picture of the Raptor 3 engine to industry experts, they said the engine wasn't fully assembled yet. We then told them: this is the "not fully assembled" engine, which has already achieved an unprecedented level of efficiency and is operational.

Moreover, its operating status is extremely clean and stable.

In order to create such an engine, we made a lot of simplifications to the design. For example, we directly integrated the secondary fluid circuits, electrical circuits, etc. into the engine structure. All key systems are well encapsulated and protected. Frankly speaking, this is already a model of engineering design.

Another technology that is crucial for achieving the Mars mission is - orbital propellant replenishment. You can think of it as similar to "air-to-air refueling," except this time it is "orbital refueling," and the object is a rocket. This technology has never been realized in history, but it is technically feasible.

Although this process always seems a bit "not suitable for children", in any case, the propellant must be transmitted, there is no way around it, this step must be completed.

Specifically, two starships dock in orbit, with one starship transferring propellant (fuel and oxygen) to the other starship. In fact, most of the mass is oxygen, which accounts for nearly 80%, while fuel only accounts for about 20%.

So, our strategy is to first launch a starship filled with cargo into orbit, and then launch several "refueling" starships to replenish the propellant through orbital supply. Once the propellant is full, that starship can set off for Mars, the Moon, or other destinations.

This technology is very critical, and we hope to complete the first demonstration next year.

One of the most difficult problems to solve next is the "reusable thermal shield."

So far, no one has truly developed a reusable thermal protection system for spacecraft. This is an extremely challenging technical hurdle. Even the thermal protection system of the Space Shuttle required months of maintenance after each flight - to repair damaged heat tiles and inspect them one by one.

This is because the high temperatures and pressures during re-entry into the atmosphere are extremely harsh, and very few materials can withstand such extreme environments, mainly some advanced ceramics, such as glass, aluminum oxide, or certain types of carbon materials.

However, most materials will either be corroded, fractured, or flaked off after multiple uses, making it difficult to withstand the immense pressure during the re-entry process.

This will be the first time humanity has truly developed a "reusable orbital thermal protection system." This system must be extremely reliable. We anticipate that it will continue to be refined and optimized over the next few years.

However, this technology is achievable. We are not pursuing an impossible task; it is feasible within the realm of physics—it's just extremely difficult to achieve.

As for Mars' atmosphere, although it is primarily composed of carbon dioxide and seems to be "milder" than Earth's at first glance, the reality is much worse.

When carbon dioxide turns into plasma during the re-entry process, it will decompose into carbon and oxygen gas—this means that the amount of free oxygen in the Martian atmosphere could be higher than that of Earth. The oxygen in Earth's atmosphere is only about 20%, while after the plasma decomposition on Mars, the oxygen content could be two or even three times that of Earth.

The free oxygen will violently oxidize the thermal shield, almost to the point of "burning" it away. Therefore, we must conduct very rigorous testing in a carbon dioxide environment to ensure that it is effective not only on Earth but also reliable on Mars.

We hope that Earth and Mars can use the same set of thermal protection systems and materials. Because thermal protection involves many technical details, such as ensuring that the thermal tiles do not crack or fall off, etc. If we use the same materials for hundreds of tests on Earth, we can be confident that it will work properly when we actually fly to Mars.

In addition, we are developing the next generation of starships, which has many improvements compared to the current version.

For example, the new generation of starships is taller, and the "interstage" between the fuselage and the boosters is also designed more reasonably. You can see the new supporting structures (struts), which make the "hot staging" process smoother.

The so-called hot stage separation refers to the early ignition of the spacecraft's engines while the booster is still burning. This way, the flames from the spacecraft's engines can be expelled more smoothly through these open support structures, without interfering with the booster.

Moreover, this time, we will not discard these structures as we did before, but rather let them fly along with the spacecraft, achieving recyclability.

This version of the Starship has slightly increased in height, from the original 69 meters to 72 meters. We expect the propellant capacity to increase slightly, potentially reaching 3,700 tons in the long term. My guess is that it will ultimately be close to the 4,000-ton level.

In terms of thrust, which is the "thrust-to-weight ratio" part, we may reach 8000 tons of thrust, and even ultimately probe up to 8003 tons - this is during the process of continuous optimization and improvement. My estimate is that in the end, we will achieve a configuration of 4000 tons of propellant and close to 10000 tons of thrust.

This is the next generation, also known as the new version of the "Super Heavy" booster.

The bottom of the booster might look a bit "bare" because the "Raptor 3" engine does not require a heat shield, so it appears to be missing something, but in fact, that's just because these engines do not need the originally used protective structures.

Raptor 3 is directly exposed to the scorching plasma, but it is designed to be very lightweight and does not require additional insulation.

This system also integrates a Hot Stage Integration structure, which I think looks really cool. The new version of the Starship hull is also slightly longer, more powerful, and its propellant capacity has increased to 1550 tons. In the long term, it may be about 20% more than this.

The design of the heat shield is also smoother, transitioning very smoothly from the edge of the insulation layer to the "leeward side," no longer featuring the uneven insulation tiles. I think it looks very simple and elegant.

Currently, this version is still equipped with 6 engines, but future versions will be upgraded to 9.

Thanks to the improvements in Raptor 3, we have achieved lower engine mass and higher specific impulse, which means greater efficiency. Starship Version 3 is a significant leap forward. I believe it achieves all of our core objectives:

Typically, for a new technology to truly mature and be user-friendly, it requires three generations of iteration. The third generation versions of Raptor 3, Starship, and Booster will possess all the key capabilities we need: rapid reusability, reliable operation, and orbital propellant refueling.

These are the necessary conditions for humanity to become a multi-planetary species, and all of this will be realized in the Starship 3.0 version. We plan to launch it for the first time by the end of this year.

You can see that on the left is the current status, in the middle is our target version by the end of this year, and on the right is the long-term development direction. The final height will reach around 142 meters.

But even the version that will be launched at the end of this year already has the capability to carry out missions to Mars. Subsequent versions will further enhance performance. Just like what we did with Falcon 9 in the past, we will continuously lengthen the rocket and improve its payload capacity. This is our development roadmap, straightforward and clear.

But I want to emphasize that this version of the rocket, which is set to launch at the end of the year, is already sufficient to support humanity's goal of multi-planetary existence. What needs to be done next is to continue improving efficiency, enhancing capabilities, lowering costs per ton, and making it more affordable for each person traveling to Mars.

As I mentioned before—our goal is to enable anyone who wants to move to Mars and participate in building a new civilization to do so.

Think about it, how cool does that have to be? Even if you don't want to go yourself, maybe you have a son, daughter, or friend who wants to go. In my opinion, this will be one of the greatest adventures that humanity can participate in – to go to another planet and build a new civilization with your own hands.

Yes, in the end our starship will be equipped with 42 engines - this is almost destined, just like the great prophet Douglas Adams predicted in his book "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy": the ultimate answer to life is 42.

So, the starship will eventually have 42 engines, that's the arrangement of the universe (laughs).

Let’s talk about payload capacity again. The most impressive part is that, in a fully reusable scenario, the Starship will have a payload capacity of 200 tons to low Earth orbit. What does this mean? This is equivalent to twice the payload capacity of the Saturn V lunar rocket. The Saturn V was a disposable rocket, while the Starship is fully reusable.

If the Starship is also reusable, its low Earth orbit capacity could even reach 400 tons.

So what I want to say is: this is a very large rocket. But to achieve "human multi-planet survival," we must have such a big rocket. And in the process of realizing Mars colonization, we can also do a lot of cool things, like establishing a base on the Moon - Lunar Base Alpha.

A long time ago, there was a TV series called "Moon Base Alpha." Although some of the physical settings in the show are not very reliable, such as the moon base seemingly being able to drift away from Earth's orbit (laughs), in any case, establishing a base on the moon should be the next step after the Apollo moon landing program.

Imagine if we could build a giant science station on the moon to conduct research on the nature of the universe; that would be really cool.

So, when can we go to Mars?

The Mars launch window opens every two years, specifically every 26 months. The next Mars window will be at the end of next year, which is about 18 months from now, around November or December.

We will strive to seize this opportunity. If luck is on our side, I think we currently have about a 50-50 chance of achieving our goal.

The key to achieving the Mars mission lies in whether we can timely complete the orbital propellant supply technology. If we can accomplish this technology before the window period, we will launch the first unmanned starship to Mars by the end of next year.

Next, you will see a demonstration image showing how the flight from Earth (blue) to Mars (red) is achieved.

In fact, the distance traveled on the trajectory from Earth to Mars is nearly a thousand times that of the distance to the Moon.

You cannot fly directly in a "straight line" to Mars; you must transfer along an elliptical orbit—Earth is at one focus of this ellipse, while Mars is at the other end of the orbit. You also need to calculate the position and timing of the spacecraft on the orbit precisely to ensure it can intersect with Mars' orbit.

This is known as the Hohmann Transfer, which is the standard way to travel from Earth to Mars.

If you have a Starlink Wi-Fi router, you can take a look at the logo pattern on it, which illustrates the orbital transfer. The satellite internet service provided by Starlink is one of the projects that help fund humanity's journey to Mars.

So I want to especially thank everyone using Starlink - you are helping to ensure the future of human civilization, you are helping humanity become a multi-planetary civilization, and you are helping humanity move towards the "Era of Cosmic Navigation." Thank you.

This is a preliminary plan blueprint: We hope to significantly increase the frequency of flights to Mars and the number of spacecraft with each opening of the Mars launch window (approximately every two years).

Ultimately, our goal is to launch 1,000 to 2,000 starships to Mars during each Mars window. Of course, this is just an estimate in terms of magnitude, but in my judgment, to establish a self-sustaining civilization on Mars, it will take approximately 1 million tons of supplies to be sent to the surface of Mars.

Only when Mars possesses such basic capabilities can it be considered to have truly reached the "civilization safety point"—that is to say, even if Earth can no longer continue to supply resources, Martian civilization can still survive and develop independently.

To achieve this, you cannot lack anything, even small but crucial elements like vitamin C cannot be absent. Mars must have everything it needs in order to achieve real growth.

I estimate that about 1 million tons will be needed, or it could be 10 million tons, and I hope it won't be 100 million tons, as that would be too much. But in any case, we will do our utmost to reach this goal as soon as possible to ensure the future of human civilization.

We are currently evaluating multiple candidate locations for Mars bases, and the Arcadia region is currently one of the top choices. There are many "land" resources on Mars, but after considering various factors, the selection range will become very narrow.

For example, it cannot be too close to the poles (the environment is too extreme), needs to be near the ice layer to obtain a water source, and the terrain should not be too rugged for the rocket to land safely.

Considering these factors, Arcadia is one of the more ideal locations. By the way, my daughter's name is also Arcadia.

In the initial phase, we will send the first batch of starships to Mars to collect critical data. These spacecraft will carry Optimus humanoid robots, which will arrive first to explore the surrounding environment and prepare for the arrival of humans.

If we can really launch the Starship by the end of next year and successfully reach Mars, it will be a very stunning sight. According to the orbital period calculation, the spacecraft will arrive at Mars in 2027.

Imagine the scene of an Optimus humanoid robot walking on the surface of Mars; it would be a groundbreaking moment.

Then, during the next Mars window two years later, we will attempt to send humans to Mars. This is contingent on the success of the previous unmanned missions landing. If all goes well, we will have humans set foot on Mars during the next launch, truly beginning the construction of infrastructure on Mars.

Of course, to be more cautious, we may conduct another landing mission with the Optimus robot and make the third launch a manned mission. It will depend on the actual results of the first two missions.

Do you remember that famous photo? - Workers sitting on a steel beam having lunch on the Empire State Building. We hope to capture a similar classic image on Mars. For Mars communications, we will use a version of the Starlink system to provide internet services.

Even with light-speed transmission, the delay from Earth to Mars is quite noticeable—under ideal conditions, it is about 3.5 minutes, while in the worst case, when Mars is on the opposite side of the Sun, the delay can reach up to 22 minutes or more.

So, conducting high-speed communication between Mars and Earth is indeed a challenge, but Starlink has the capability to solve this problem.

Next, the first group of humans will lay the groundwork on Mars and establish a long-term outpost. As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to enable Mars to become self-sustaining as soon as possible.

This picture is our rough concept of the first city on Mars.

I speculate that we will build the launch pad a bit further away from the landing area to prevent accidents. On Mars, we will be extremely reliant on solar energy. In the early stages of Mars, since it has not yet been "terraformed," humans will not be able to walk freely on the Martian surface and must wear "Mars suits" and live in enclosed structures similar to glass domes.

However, all of this is achievable. Ultimately, we have hope of transforming Mars into a Earth-like planet.

Our long-term goal is to transport over one million tons of supplies to Mars during each Mars transfer window (approximately every two years). Only when we reach this level can we truly say we are starting to build a "serious Mars civilization"—transporting "one million tons" of supplies during each window is our ultimate standard.

At that time, we will need a large number of spaceports. Since flights cannot take place at any time and can only be concentrated during launch windows, we will have thousands, even up to two thousand starships gathered in Earth's orbit, waiting to take off simultaneously.

Imagine this - just like in "Battlestar Galactica", thousands of spaceships gather in orbit, simultaneously embarking on a journey to Mars, which would be one of the most spectacular scenes in human history.

Of course, by then we will also need a large number of Mars landing pads and launch pads. If thousands of starships arrive, you will need at least several hundred landing spots, or very efficiently clear the landing area quickly after landing.

We will solve this problem later (laughs). In short, establishing the first human extraterrestrial city on Mars will be an incredible feat. This is not only a brand new world but also an opportunity—Martian residents can rethink the patterns of human civilization:

What kind of government system do you want?

What new rules do you want to establish?

On Mars, humanity has the freedom to rewrite the structure of civilization.

This is a decision that belongs to the "Martians".

So, alright - let's go do this together.

Thank you, everyone!