The ruling weakened the impact of tariff policies, resulting in a surge of capital inflow into the Bitcoin market, with a significant increase in institutional Holdings.
Written by: Mars Finance
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled like a depth charge, with the judge declaring that Trump's tariffs on a number of countries were "beyond the purview of the president." On the news, the price of Bitcoin broke through $109,000, a one-day gain of 1.86%. Alarms rang out on the trading platform, with the trading volume of the XBIT platform surging by more than 40% after the verdict was announced, and countless short positions were wiped out in an instant.
"This is an epic shock!" Swyftx Chief Analyst Pav Hundal stated immediately after the ruling, "A new historical high is about to come, and this momentum is essentially irreversible." The historical high he mentioned points directly to $120,000—this target price, once viewed conservatively, now seems "too conservative" in the eyes of Wall Street analysts.
! BitCoin Recent Chart
Tariff Policy and the "Roller Coaster" Relationship with Bitcoin
On February 3, 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced a bloody baptism. As Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% and 10% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, the price of Bitcoin plummeted to $91,000, a 6.83% drop in a single day. Within 24 hours, more than 730,000 crypto assets were liquidated across the network, with a liquidation amount of more than $2.2 billion. This plunge kicked off the linkage between Bitcoin and trade policy.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out in a post-event analysis: "Investors are strategically reallocating away from U.S. assets." As traditional markets are shaken by tariff turbulence, savvy funds are starting to see Bitcoin as a safe haven. However, this hedging property is not stable—within three weeks, Bitcoin's price fluctuated sharply between $91,000 and $102,000, with nearly a million retail investors being washed out in leveraged trading.
Economists Pan and Lin Dao broke down the deeper logic: "The excessive rise in crypto assets caused by Trump's transactions in the early stage, coupled with the liquidity crunch caused by the Fed's change in interest rate cut expectations, combined with the collapse." Bitcoin's safe-haven nature and high-risk characteristics form a strange symbiosis here, laying the groundwork for the subsequent epic market.
Judicial Ruling: The "Epic Shock" That Reshaped Market Expectations
The court ruling on May 28, 2025, technically coincides with a key turning point for Bitcoin. Just a week ago, on May 22, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $111,970 before recovering to consolidate around $107,750. Following the ruling, Bitcoin quickly broke above the $109,000 resistance level, the relative strength index on the 4-hour chart jumped to (RSI), and the MACD indicator showed a clear bullish crossover.
The deep power of this ruling lies in its undermining of the foundation of tariff policy. Although the Trump administration immediately appealed, Hundal pointed out: "In any case, this creates loopholes in trade negotiations, meaning the market may experience significant repositioning." When systemic risks are weakened by judicial barriers, the floodgates for capital flow are opened.
Institutional investors reacted most sensitively. During the week of the ruling, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $2.75 billion, marking the second highest weekly performance since 2025. BlackRock's IBIT fund achieved an astonishing record of net inflows for 30 consecutive days. These numbers validate Kendrick's observation: "Everything now is about the flow of funds — and these flows come in various forms."
US Spot ETF Net Flows
120,000 USD: From "Aggressive Predictions" to "Conservative Targets"
Just two weeks before the tariff ruling, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, did something rare: he publicly apologized for his Bitcoin predictions. However, the reason for the apology was not too aggressive, but because he predicted in April that "the $120,000 target for the second quarter may be too low." Underpinning his revised forecast is a shocking set of data: $5.3 billion of US Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past three weeks, and institutional funds are reshaping the logic of Bitcoin pricing on an unprecedented scale.
These funds are backed by deep involvement from traditional financial giants:
Software company MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, which is seen by the market as a "Bitcoin leveraged alternative".
The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund heavily holds BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF
The Swiss central bank indirectly allocated Bitcoin by purchasing MicroStrategy stock.
Institutional holdings have surged from 10% in 2020 to over 40% in 2025. When sovereign funds and central banks enter the market, the narrative around Bitcoin's assets undergoes a fundamental transformation—from a retail-driven speculative tool to a strategic choice for macro asset allocation.
Technical Battle: Long and Short Game Under the Consensus of $120,000
In the face of seemingly unanimous bullish expectations, technical analysts are engaged in fierce exchanges at key points:
$110,800: Short-term resistance zone marked by the Bitunix team, where most rebounds have halted in the past.
$108,000: The bulls' core defense level, a break of which could trigger a massive profit-taking
$95,411: The average cost line for short-term holders, seen as the dividing line between bulls and bears.
On-chain data expert Willy Woo issued a warning: "This week is absolutely crucial. Without follow-up buying pressure, we will face another consolidation period." His concerns stem from changes in the market microstructure - the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates that short-term profit-taking pressure is accumulating, while ETF inflows have significantly slowed compared to previous peaks.
The options market, however, shows extreme optimism. Deribit data indicates a surge in open contracts for Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $120,000 expiring at the end of June, resonating with the revised target price from Standard Chartered. This divergence reflects the core contradiction in the current market: the long-term narrative is strong, but the short term needs to digest the profit pressure brought by nearly 40% annual gains.
Challenges Remain: Three Major Risk Points Hide Dangers
Even amidst the cheers of judicial victory, sober analysts are still marking risk signals on the radar chart:
1. The "powder keg" of macro policy has not been removed
The Trump administration has appealed the tariff ruling.
The EU 50% tariff extension is only valid until July 9.
The fourth round of tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States will be held on May 30.
Federal Reserve policy adds more uncertainty: Morgan Stanley predicts no interest rate cuts before March 2026, which is in serious divergence from market expectations. As the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets strengthens, these macro variables will become a double-edged sword.
2. ETF Fund Flow 'Marginal Diminishing'
Despite the impressive inflow of $2.75 billion in ETFs last week, it has decreased by about 30% compared to the peak at the end of 2024.
BlackRock's IBIT has maintained net inflows, but the daily inflow has dropped from a peak of $500 million to the $100 million level.
The institution-led bull market is facing a demand test, and the market is in dire need of a new funding narrative.
3. The Vampire Effect of Altcoins is Emerging
Historical experience shows that when Bitcoin breaks through key psychological price levels, funds may rotate into altcoins. Swyftx's Hundal has asserted: "Before Bitcoin reaches $100,000, altcoins will remain volatile." Currently, Bitcoin is less than 10% away from that target, and once it successfully breaks through, it may trigger an "altcoin season," diverting funds from Bitcoin.
Beyond 120,000: The Journey to 200,000 Dollars
As the market focuses on a short-term target of 120,000 dollars, the real whales have set their sights on a further horizon. Standard Chartered's Kendrick has an annual target still anchored at 200,000 dollars, while the Trump family’s prediction at the Bitcoin 2025 conference is even more aggressive—reaching 170,000 dollars by the end of 2026. The common pivot point of these predictions is the fundamental shift in the supply and demand structure of Bitcoin:
According to Bitwise, U.S. corporate bitcoin purchases in 2025 have already exceeded the new supply by three times. This structural shortfall was dramatically amplified during the halving cycle – miners added 450 BTC from 900 per day, while BlackRock IBIT alone demanded 800 BTC per day.
The improvement of stablecoin channels is injecting new momentum into Bitcoin. Tether issued an additional 12 billion USDT in the first quarter of 2025, and this "entry capital" has become an important potential force driving coin prices. As the bridge between fiat and cryptocurrency becomes increasingly smooth, the flood of funds from the traditional world will find more efficient drainage channels.
Conclusion
When the judge's gavel fell, cracks appeared in the tariff barrier, and the password of $120,000 loomed on the Bitcoin candlestick chart. The market is always moving forward in the unknown, but at the moment, all the signal lights are flashing in the same color - Bitcoin's "tariff premium" is turning into real upward momentum, and Wall Street's consensus goal may be just the beginning of a new journey.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
Tariff barriers have collapsed, and 120,000 USD Bitcoin has become a consensus on Wall Street?
Written by: Mars Finance
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled like a depth charge, with the judge declaring that Trump's tariffs on a number of countries were "beyond the purview of the president." On the news, the price of Bitcoin broke through $109,000, a one-day gain of 1.86%. Alarms rang out on the trading platform, with the trading volume of the XBIT platform surging by more than 40% after the verdict was announced, and countless short positions were wiped out in an instant.
"This is an epic shock!" Swyftx Chief Analyst Pav Hundal stated immediately after the ruling, "A new historical high is about to come, and this momentum is essentially irreversible." The historical high he mentioned points directly to $120,000—this target price, once viewed conservatively, now seems "too conservative" in the eyes of Wall Street analysts.
! BitCoin Recent Chart
Tariff Policy and the "Roller Coaster" Relationship with Bitcoin
On February 3, 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced a bloody baptism. As Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% and 10% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, the price of Bitcoin plummeted to $91,000, a 6.83% drop in a single day. Within 24 hours, more than 730,000 crypto assets were liquidated across the network, with a liquidation amount of more than $2.2 billion. This plunge kicked off the linkage between Bitcoin and trade policy.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out in a post-event analysis: "Investors are strategically reallocating away from U.S. assets." As traditional markets are shaken by tariff turbulence, savvy funds are starting to see Bitcoin as a safe haven. However, this hedging property is not stable—within three weeks, Bitcoin's price fluctuated sharply between $91,000 and $102,000, with nearly a million retail investors being washed out in leveraged trading.
Economists Pan and Lin Dao broke down the deeper logic: "The excessive rise in crypto assets caused by Trump's transactions in the early stage, coupled with the liquidity crunch caused by the Fed's change in interest rate cut expectations, combined with the collapse." Bitcoin's safe-haven nature and high-risk characteristics form a strange symbiosis here, laying the groundwork for the subsequent epic market.
Judicial Ruling: The "Epic Shock" That Reshaped Market Expectations
The court ruling on May 28, 2025, technically coincides with a key turning point for Bitcoin. Just a week ago, on May 22, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $111,970 before recovering to consolidate around $107,750. Following the ruling, Bitcoin quickly broke above the $109,000 resistance level, the relative strength index on the 4-hour chart jumped to (RSI), and the MACD indicator showed a clear bullish crossover.
The deep power of this ruling lies in its undermining of the foundation of tariff policy. Although the Trump administration immediately appealed, Hundal pointed out: "In any case, this creates loopholes in trade negotiations, meaning the market may experience significant repositioning." When systemic risks are weakened by judicial barriers, the floodgates for capital flow are opened.
Institutional investors reacted most sensitively. During the week of the ruling, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $2.75 billion, marking the second highest weekly performance since 2025. BlackRock's IBIT fund achieved an astonishing record of net inflows for 30 consecutive days. These numbers validate Kendrick's observation: "Everything now is about the flow of funds — and these flows come in various forms."
US Spot ETF Net Flows
120,000 USD: From "Aggressive Predictions" to "Conservative Targets"
Just two weeks before the tariff ruling, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, did something rare: he publicly apologized for his Bitcoin predictions. However, the reason for the apology was not too aggressive, but because he predicted in April that "the $120,000 target for the second quarter may be too low." Underpinning his revised forecast is a shocking set of data: $5.3 billion of US Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past three weeks, and institutional funds are reshaping the logic of Bitcoin pricing on an unprecedented scale.
These funds are backed by deep involvement from traditional financial giants:
Institutional holdings have surged from 10% in 2020 to over 40% in 2025. When sovereign funds and central banks enter the market, the narrative around Bitcoin's assets undergoes a fundamental transformation—from a retail-driven speculative tool to a strategic choice for macro asset allocation.
Technical Battle: Long and Short Game Under the Consensus of $120,000
In the face of seemingly unanimous bullish expectations, technical analysts are engaged in fierce exchanges at key points:
On-chain data expert Willy Woo issued a warning: "This week is absolutely crucial. Without follow-up buying pressure, we will face another consolidation period." His concerns stem from changes in the market microstructure - the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates that short-term profit-taking pressure is accumulating, while ETF inflows have significantly slowed compared to previous peaks.
The options market, however, shows extreme optimism. Deribit data indicates a surge in open contracts for Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $120,000 expiring at the end of June, resonating with the revised target price from Standard Chartered. This divergence reflects the core contradiction in the current market: the long-term narrative is strong, but the short term needs to digest the profit pressure brought by nearly 40% annual gains.
Challenges Remain: Three Major Risk Points Hide Dangers
Even amidst the cheers of judicial victory, sober analysts are still marking risk signals on the radar chart:
1. The "powder keg" of macro policy has not been removed
Federal Reserve policy adds more uncertainty: Morgan Stanley predicts no interest rate cuts before March 2026, which is in serious divergence from market expectations. As the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets strengthens, these macro variables will become a double-edged sword.
2. ETF Fund Flow 'Marginal Diminishing'
The institution-led bull market is facing a demand test, and the market is in dire need of a new funding narrative.
3. The Vampire Effect of Altcoins is Emerging
Historical experience shows that when Bitcoin breaks through key psychological price levels, funds may rotate into altcoins. Swyftx's Hundal has asserted: "Before Bitcoin reaches $100,000, altcoins will remain volatile." Currently, Bitcoin is less than 10% away from that target, and once it successfully breaks through, it may trigger an "altcoin season," diverting funds from Bitcoin.
Beyond 120,000: The Journey to 200,000 Dollars
As the market focuses on a short-term target of 120,000 dollars, the real whales have set their sights on a further horizon. Standard Chartered's Kendrick has an annual target still anchored at 200,000 dollars, while the Trump family’s prediction at the Bitcoin 2025 conference is even more aggressive—reaching 170,000 dollars by the end of 2026. The common pivot point of these predictions is the fundamental shift in the supply and demand structure of Bitcoin:
According to Bitwise, U.S. corporate bitcoin purchases in 2025 have already exceeded the new supply by three times. This structural shortfall was dramatically amplified during the halving cycle – miners added 450 BTC from 900 per day, while BlackRock IBIT alone demanded 800 BTC per day.
The improvement of stablecoin channels is injecting new momentum into Bitcoin. Tether issued an additional 12 billion USDT in the first quarter of 2025, and this "entry capital" has become an important potential force driving coin prices. As the bridge between fiat and cryptocurrency becomes increasingly smooth, the flood of funds from the traditional world will find more efficient drainage channels.
Conclusion
When the judge's gavel fell, cracks appeared in the tariff barrier, and the password of $120,000 loomed on the Bitcoin candlestick chart. The market is always moving forward in the unknown, but at the moment, all the signal lights are flashing in the same color - Bitcoin's "tariff premium" is turning into real upward momentum, and Wall Street's consensus goal may be just the beginning of a new journey.