#Over 100 Companies Hold Over 830,000 BTC#
According to reports as of June 19, more than 100 companies collectively hold over 830,000 BTC, worth about $86.476 billion.
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The "110,000 USD Predicament" of Bitcoin: A Comprehensive Perspective on Market Undercurrents, Institutional Ambitions, and Macroeconomic Variables in the Bull vs Bear Battle
Written by: White55, Mars Finance
(1) The "psychological spell" of 110,000 dollars: the misalignment between historical highs and market expectations
Since Bitcoin broke through $100,000 in April 2025, it has entered a new round of upward cycle, reaching a historical high of $111,957 in mid-May. However, the price has since oscillated between $105,000 and $112,000, failing to achieve a significant breakthrough. This phenomenon sharply contrasts with the rapid market surge seen when it broke through $100,000 in December 2024, reflecting the complex contradictions in the current market.
On the technical side, the weekly RSI indicator for Bitcoin has entered the overbought zone, and the MACD momentum bars are continuously narrowing, indicating a weakening of short-term upward momentum. On-chain data shows that the proportion of long-term holders (LTH) has decreased from 76% at the beginning of the year to 72%, as some "old miners" and early investors begin to take profits, leading to an increase in net inflows to exchanges. This phenomenon of chip loosening bears similarities to the characteristics seen at the end of the 2021 bull market.
But on the other hand, the derivatives market is revealing very different signals. As of May 26, the annualized basis rate for Bitcoin futures remained at 8%, well below the extreme level of 20% when it topped $100,000 in December 2024, indicating that leveraged bulls are not overly aggressive. At the same time, the options market's Delta Skew Index (-6%) shows put options trading at a discount, a typical bull market structural feature, in contrast to the +15% skew during the 2024 bear market.
Image 1: Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized basis rate.
(2) Market sentiment's "dual extremes": Institutional influx and retail caution.
Institutional funds continue to pour in, becoming the core force supporting the market. Data shows that from May 19-25, the net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF reached $2.75 billion, setting a new weekly high since Trump's victory in December 2024. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC ETFs accounted for 80% of the share, indicating that traditional asset management giants are becoming the dominant players in Bitcoin pricing power.
It is worth noting that JPMorgan announced on May 19 that it would allow clients to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs through brokerage accounts. Although this move does not directly involve custody services, it opens up a potential entry channel for its $6 trillion in client deposits, which could trigger a "catalyst effect"—institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup may be forced to follow suit to remain competitive.
In contrast to this is the cautious attitude of retail investors. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has fallen from 78 (extreme greed) at the beginning of May to 65 (greed), while the search interest for the keyword "Bitcoin bubble" on Google has increased by 320% year-on-year. This divergence reflects the anxiety of ordinary investors towards high-level fluctuations, sharply contrasting with the institutional strategy of "buying more as prices drop."
II. Macroeconomic Variables: The Trio of Trump's Policies, the Fed's Shift, and Technology Stocks' Correlation
(1) Trump's "Tariff Game": How Geopolitics Reshapes the Pricing Logic of the Crypto Market
On May 26, Trump announced the postponement of a 50% tariff on EU imports until July 9. This decision superficially alleviated the risk of escalating the trade war, but actually contained underlying political maneuvering. Historical data shows that tariff policies during Trump's term have been highly inconsistent—his sudden announcement in February 2025 of a 25% tariff on EU automobiles led to a 12% drop in Bitcoin in a single day.
The current market is more focused on the progress of its crypto strategic reserve program. Although the March White House summit only proposed a legislative framework for stablecoins, Senator Lomis's draft National Bitcoin Reserve Act has entered the legislative process. The bill requires the U.S. Treasury Department to buy 5% of the circulating Bitcoin (about 1.05 million) in the next five years, which will directly create nearly $100 billion in demand if implemented.
(2) The Federal Reserve's "Inflation Puzzle": PCE data may become a key catalyst for breakthroughs
The market is highly sensitive to the PCE inflation data to be released on May 30. Currently, CME interest rate futures indicate that traders are betting on a 68% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June, but if the core PCE year-on-year growth exceeds 2.9% (previous value 2.8%), it may reverse the easing expectations. Notably, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has dropped from 0.75 at the beginning of the year to 0.32, indicating that it is moving away from the traditional risk asset framework towards the "digital gold" narrative.
(3) The "Butterfly Effect" of Nvidia's Earnings Report: The Secret Connection Between the AI Computing Revolution and the Cryptocurrency Market
NVIDIA will release its quarterly earnings report on May 28, and its performance may impact Bitcoin through two pathways:
Mining Competition: If the demand for the next generation of AI chips exceeds expectations, it could drive up GPU prices, indirectly increasing the upgrade costs for Bitcoin mining machines and squeezing miners' profit margins.
Capital diversion: If technology stocks rise due to favorable earnings reports, it may attract some funds from the cryptocurrency market to shift towards traditional stock markets, exacerbating short-term volatility in Bitcoin.
(1) MicroStrategy's "Extreme Operations": The Strategic Ambition Behind the Balance Sheet Reconstruction
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, increased its holdings by 4,018 Bitcoins at an average price of $106,237 from May 19 to 25, bringing its total holdings to 324,000 Bitcoins (worth approximately $34.5 billion). Interestingly, the coupon rate for the convertible bonds raised by the company has surged from 0.625% in 2024 to 6.25%, indicating that the capital market's risk pricing for its aggressive strategy is changing.
This "debt-driven coin hoarding" model is forming a demonstration effect. Data shows that as of May, 17 companies in the S&P 500 index have publicly held Bitcoin, with a total scale of 48.7 billion dollars. Companies like Tesla and Block have even begun to explore using Bitcoin to pay for supply chain payments, promoting its evolution from a reserve asset to a medium of circulation.
(2) The "Matthew Effect" in the ETF ecosystem: Market reconstruction under the duopoly of BlackRock and Fidelity.
Since the approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the total assets under management (AUM) have surpassed $120 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT ($48.6 billion) and Fidelity's FBTC ($39.2 billion) together account for 72% market share, creating an absolute monopoly. This trend of concentration may raise regulatory concerns— the SEC is examining whether to propose new rules on "reserve asset transparency" for ETF issuers, requiring the disclosure of custody addresses and on-chain verification mechanisms.
The more far-reaching impact is that ETFs are changing the volatility of Bitcoin. Measured by the daily net inflow/outflow data, ETF fund flows have reached 38% of the explanation for Bitcoin price changes, which means that the opening time of the traditional financial market (9:30-16:00 EST) is becoming the main battlefield of Bitcoin price fluctuations, forming a paradox with the "decentralized" characteristics of continuous trading in the early 7× 24 hours.
Figure 3: Bitcoin price drops as funds flow out of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
(1) Lightning Network 2.0: The "Singularity Moment" of the Payment Track
The upgraded version of the Bitcoin Layer 2 solution, the Lightning Network 2.0 (LN2.0), achieved a significant breakthrough in May:
The channel capacity has exceeded 8000 BTC, an increase of 320% year-on-year;
Supports Atomic Multi-Path Payments (AMP), single transaction processing capacity increased to 0.1 BTC;
Pilot cross-border remittances in cooperation with Visa, with fees reduced to below 0.3%.
These developments are changing the utility boundaries of Bitcoin. The government of El Salvador has announced that 20% of public employee salaries will be disbursed through the Lightning Network, and Amazon Mexico has accepted Bitcoin Lightning payments. If this dual function of "micro high-frequency payments + value storage" is solidified, Bitcoin could truly challenge traditional payment giants like Visa and PayPal.
(2) The "Smart Contract Breakthrough" of the RGB Protocol: The Secret War Challenging Ethereum
The RGB protocol based on the Bitcoin UTXO model was upgraded to v0.5 in May, realizing the Turing-complete smart contract function for the first time. Although the scale of the ecosystem is still small (the total lock-up amount is only $120 million), it adopts the architecture of client-side verification and off-chain computing, which shows unique advantages in privacy and scalability. It is worth noting that Rune Christensen, founder of MakerDAO, has announced that he will explore the transfer of part of DAI's reserves to the RGB protocol, which may become a landmark event for DeFi funds to flow back to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
V. Future Scenario Simulation: The Fate of Bitcoin Under Three Paths
(1) Bull Market Scenario (End of 2025 Target: $180,000 - $250,000)
Trigger condition:
The US PCE inflation data is below 2.6%, and the Federal Reserve will start the interest rate cut cycle in June.
The national Bitcoin reserve bill has been passed, and the Ministry of Finance has launched a monthly coin purchasing plan.
The Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem's locked value has surpassed $10 billion, with over 50 million users in payment scenarios.
Technical Form: The weekly level will form a "cup and handle" pattern, accelerating upwards after breaking through $112,000, replicating the momentum effect seen when it broke $100,000 in December 2024.
(2) Oscillation Scenario (Price Range: $100,000 - $140,000)
Core variables:
Nvidia's earnings report shows weak demand for AI chips, and the pullback in tech stocks drags down risk assets;
Trump's tariff policy repeatedly triggers market risk aversion.
The speed of ETF capital inflows has fallen to an average of less than 1 billion dollars per week.
Market characteristics: Increased selling pressure from miners, extended adjustment cycle for hash power difficulty, and continuously low funding rates for derivatives.
(3) Bear Market Scenario (Retracement Target: $74,000 - $85,000)
Risk Catalyst:
The US SEC conducts a surprise investigation into the ETF reserve custody situation, triggering a crisis of trust;
The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, reversing global inflation expectations.
Quantum computing breakthroughs raise concerns about the security of Bitcoin's encryption algorithms 89.
On-chain signals: The net inflow of exchanges has exceeded 50,000 BTC for three consecutive weeks, and the holding ratio of long-term holders has dropped below 70%.
Conclusion: Finding certainty in uncertainty
Bitcoin's $110,000 tug-of-war is essentially a micro-mapping of the collision of the old and new financial order. From Trump's tariff game to MicroStrategy's balance sheet revolution, from the Lightning Network's payment infiltration to the institutionalization of ETFs, multiple forces are reshaping the economics of this experiment. Historical experience shows that whenever Bitcoin's "death obituary" floods the media, it is often a good opportunity for long-term investors to reverse their position. When the market is lost in the hustle and bustle, perhaps it is better to return to the original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper - "a pure peer-to-peer electronic cash system". In this sense, the price fluctuations of 2025 are just a footnote to this great social experiment, and the real revolution has long been quietly growing in code and consensus.