Original Title: Are Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Starting to Sell?
Original author: Matt Crosby, Bitcoin Magazine
Original text compiled by: BitpushNews
After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now regained the $100,000 mark and hit new all-time highs, instilling new confidence in the market. But as the price rises, a key question arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders – long-term holders – starting to sell? This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or just a healthy part of the Bitcoin market cycle.
shows signs of profit-taking.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides immediate insight into the realized profits across the entire network. Focusing on the past few weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The accumulation of green bars indicates that a significant number of investors are selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–75,000 range to a new high of over $100,000.
However, while this may raise concerns about the resistance above in the short term, it must be understood in the broader on-chain context. Such behavior is not uncommon in a bull market and cannot be viewed in isolation as a signal of a cycle top.
The supply of long-term holders is still increasing.
"Long-term holder supply" refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have been held for more than 155 days. Despite the price surge, this metric continues to rise. This trend does not necessarily indicate that new buying activity is currently occurring, but rather signifies that Bitcoin is "aging" into a long-term holding state over time, without being transferred or sold.
Figure 2: The supply of long-term Bitcoin holders has significantly increased.
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding their coins and are transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typically seen in the early or mid-stages of a bull market, and there are no signs of large-scale distribution yet.
HODL Waves Analysis
To further analyze, we used HODL Waves data, which is layered by the holding age of wallets. Focusing on wallets that have held for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis shows that long-term investors hold the majority of Bitcoin.
Interestingly, although this ratio remains high, it has started to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as the supply from long-term holders continues to grow. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply seems to be short-term holders gradually "aging" into the holding period of over 155 days, rather than large-scale purchases of new funds.
Figure 4: The change rate of long-term holder supply has an inverse relationship with Bitcoin price.
By utilizing the raw data provided by the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the change rate of long-term holder balances classified by wallet holding age. Historically, when this metric shows a significant decline, it often coincides with the peak of the cycle. Conversely, when this metric rises sharply, it usually corresponds to the market bottom and deep accumulation phase.
Short-term changes and distribution ratio
In order to improve the accuracy of these signals, the data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent market entrants (0–1 month)" with "mid-term holders (1–5 years)". This comparison of holding age distribution can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.
Figure 5: The distribution ratio of holding age provides valuable market insights
We have found that when the proportion of holders who have held for 1-5 years sharply declines relative to new entrants, it historically often coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rises rapidly, meaning more Bitcoin flows into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to significant price increases.
Changes in the behavior of long-term investors are one of the most effective ways to assess the sustainability of market sentiment and price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders in terms of profit by buying in times of panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders are only exhibiting slight selling behavior, far from the scale seen at previous cycle tops. There is indeed some profit-taking, but the pace at which it occurs seems completely controllable, indicative of a healthy market environment. Considering the current bull market phase and the participation of institutional and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase, with prices having further room to rise against the backdrop of continued inflow of new funds.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
Bitcoin has reached a new high, have the holders started to dump?
After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now regained the $100,000 mark and hit new all-time highs, instilling new confidence in the market. But as the price rises, a key question arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders – long-term holders – starting to sell? This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or just a healthy part of the Bitcoin market cycle.
shows signs of profit-taking.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides immediate insight into the realized profits across the entire network. Focusing on the past few weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The accumulation of green bars indicates that a significant number of investors are selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–75,000 range to a new high of over $100,000.
However, while this may raise concerns about the resistance above in the short term, it must be understood in the broader on-chain context. Such behavior is not uncommon in a bull market and cannot be viewed in isolation as a signal of a cycle top.
The supply of long-term holders is still increasing.
"Long-term holder supply" refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have been held for more than 155 days. Despite the price surge, this metric continues to rise. This trend does not necessarily indicate that new buying activity is currently occurring, but rather signifies that Bitcoin is "aging" into a long-term holding state over time, without being transferred or sold.
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding their coins and are transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typically seen in the early or mid-stages of a bull market, and there are no signs of large-scale distribution yet.
HODL Waves Analysis
To further analyze, we used HODL Waves data, which is layered by the holding age of wallets. Focusing on wallets that have held for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Interestingly, although this ratio remains high, it has started to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as the supply from long-term holders continues to grow. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply seems to be short-term holders gradually "aging" into the holding period of over 155 days, rather than large-scale purchases of new funds.
By utilizing the raw data provided by the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the change rate of long-term holder balances classified by wallet holding age. Historically, when this metric shows a significant decline, it often coincides with the peak of the cycle. Conversely, when this metric rises sharply, it usually corresponds to the market bottom and deep accumulation phase.
Short-term changes and distribution ratio
In order to improve the accuracy of these signals, the data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent market entrants (0–1 month)" with "mid-term holders (1–5 years)". This comparison of holding age distribution can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.
We have found that when the proportion of holders who have held for 1-5 years sharply declines relative to new entrants, it historically often coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rises rapidly, meaning more Bitcoin flows into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to significant price increases.
Changes in the behavior of long-term investors are one of the most effective ways to assess the sustainability of market sentiment and price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders in terms of profit by buying in times of panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders are only exhibiting slight selling behavior, far from the scale seen at previous cycle tops. There is indeed some profit-taking, but the pace at which it occurs seems completely controllable, indicative of a healthy market environment. Considering the current bull market phase and the participation of institutional and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase, with prices having further room to rise against the backdrop of continued inflow of new funds.
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