Bitcoin may welcome a phase of Favourable Information, as market risk aversion eases?

Recently, the United States announced that the 50% judgment period for the 50% measures originally scheduled to take effect on June 1 has been extended to July 9. 这一决定暂时缓解了市场对贸易战全面升级的担忧,风险资产市场情绪显有回暖。 作为全球流动性敏感的加密货币龙头,比特币(BTC)在此背景下迎来多重利好支撑,价格从周内低点反弹超8%,截至发稿暂报109,200美元,24小时涨幅3.5。
Tariff Extension: Short-term Uncertainty Risk Decreases
The trade dispute between the United States and the European Union has been escalating since February. Previously, the Trump administration threatened to impose tariffs of 25%-50% on the EU multiple times, causing risk assets such as Bitcoin to come under pressure. For example, after Trump announced a 25% tariff on the EU on February 27, Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $82,236, marking a new low in nearly six months. The delay in negotiations indicates that both sides still have room for maneuver, and the market has adjusted its pricing for the "worst-case scenario." Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank noted: "A easing of trade tensions could drive capital back into high-risk assets, with Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, likely to benefit first."
Strengthening of Hedging Attributes: New Choices Under Inflation and Policy Game
Despite the temporary suspension of tariff threats, the long-term risks of the economic game between the US and Europe have not been eliminated. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that if a 50% tariff is implemented, US economic growth could be dragged down by 0.2 percentage points, while key European industries could suffer losses exceeding 100 billion euros. Against this backdrop, the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is further highlighted:
1. Anti-inflation demand: The rise in supply chain costs caused by tariffs may push up global inflation, and the fixed supply mechanism of Bitcoin's 21 million coins becomes a tool against currency devaluation;
2. Policy Hedging: The domestic divergence on tariff policies in the United States has intensified, with the Chicago Fed President criticizing its "lack of coherence". Policy uncertainty is driving funds towards decentralized assets;
3. Technical Support: The current Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has risen to 35 (neutral zone), with the key weekly support level firmly above $100,000, and market selling pressure has significantly weakened.
Institutional funds are quietly positioning themselves, and ETF holdings are growing against the trend.
It is worth noting that despite the severe market fluctuations in May, the Bitcoin spot ETF continues to show a "buy the dip" trend. According to Bloomberg data, the total holdings of Bitcoin ETFs worldwide have surpassed 950,000, an increase of 7% compared to April, with US funds contributing over 60% of the increase. Analysts believe that institutional investors are taking advantage of the pullback to increase their positions, building momentum for medium to long-term growth.
Outlook: July as a key time window
市场普遍认为,7月9日 美欧谈判结果将决定短期走向。 若双方达成妥协,bit币或借势冲击120,000美元关口; 若博弈升级,则需关注100,000美元支撑位强度。 Deutsche Strontium Strategy reminds that: "The ground is still the largest volume, and investors need to be wary of the market of the black sky crane incident." ”