Long-term holders have only slight dumping behavior, far from reaching the scale seen at the peak of previous cycles.
Written by: Matt Crosby
Compilation and Organization: BitpushNews
After experiencing a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now regained the $100,000 mark and set a new historical high, injecting new confidence into the market. However, with the price increase, a key question arises: are the most experienced and successful holders of Bitcoin—the long-term holders—starting to dump?
This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders, and whether the recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or merely a healthy component of the Bitcoin market cycle.
Signs of Profit Taking
Productivity Spent Margin (SOPR) provides instant insight into realized profit across the network. Focusing on the last few weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The aggregation of green bars suggests that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin for a profit, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–$75,000 range to a new high of more than $100,000.
However, while this may raise concerns about the resistance above in the short term, it must be understood in a broader on-chain context. Such behavior is not uncommon in a bull market and cannot be taken as a signal of a market top on its own.
The supply of long-term holders is still increasing.
Long-term holder supply refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held for more than 155 days. Despite the price surge, this metric continues to rise. This trend does not necessarily indicate that new buying activity is currently taking place, but rather suggests that Bitcoin is "aging" into a long-term holding state over time, without being transferred or sold.
Figure 2: The supply of long-term Bitcoin holders has significantly increased
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding their coins and are transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic, typically seen in the early or mid-stages of a bull market, and has not yet shown signs of large-scale dumping.
HODL Waves Analysis
To further analyze, we used HODL Waves data, which layers wallets by the age of their holdings. Focusing on wallets that have held for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis shows that long-term investors hold the majority of Bitcoin's share
Interestingly, although this ratio remains high, it has begun to slightly decline, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as the supply of long-term holders continues to grow. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply appears to be the gradual "aging" of short-term holders into the holding period of over 155 days, rather than large-scale purchases of new funds.
Figure 4: The rate of change in supply of long-term holders is inversely related to Bitcoin price
By using the raw data provided by the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the changes in the balance of long-term holders classified by wallet holding age. When this metric significantly declines, it often coincides with historical cycle tops. Conversely, when this metric sharply rises, it often corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.
Short-term Changes and Distribution Ratio
To improve the accuracy of these signals, data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent market entrants (0–1 month)" with "medium-term holders (1–5 years)". This distribution comparison of holding periods can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behaviors.
Figure 5: The distribution ratio of holder age provides valuable market insights
We found that when the ratio of holders with 1-5 years of holding time to new holders sharply declines, it has historically coincided with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rises rapidly, meaning more Bitcoin is flowing into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to significant price increases.
The changes in the behavior of long-term investors are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders by buying in times of panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders show only slight dumping behavior, far from the scale seen at the peaks of previous cycles. There is indeed some profit-taking, but the pace at which it occurs appears to be completely controllable, indicating a healthy market environment.
Considering the current bull market phase, as well as the participation of institutional and retail investors, data indicates that we are still in a structurally strong phase, with the potential for further price increases amid the ongoing inflow of new capital.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
Are long-term Bitcoin holders starting to dump?
Written by: Matt Crosby
Compilation and Organization: BitpushNews
After experiencing a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now regained the $100,000 mark and set a new historical high, injecting new confidence into the market. However, with the price increase, a key question arises: are the most experienced and successful holders of Bitcoin—the long-term holders—starting to dump?
This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders, and whether the recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or merely a healthy component of the Bitcoin market cycle.
Signs of Profit Taking
Productivity Spent Margin (SOPR) provides instant insight into realized profit across the network. Focusing on the last few weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The aggregation of green bars suggests that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin for a profit, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–$75,000 range to a new high of more than $100,000.
Figure 1: The output profit margin indicates significant profit realization recently
However, while this may raise concerns about the resistance above in the short term, it must be understood in a broader on-chain context. Such behavior is not uncommon in a bull market and cannot be taken as a signal of a market top on its own.
The supply of long-term holders is still increasing.
Long-term holder supply refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held for more than 155 days. Despite the price surge, this metric continues to rise. This trend does not necessarily indicate that new buying activity is currently taking place, but rather suggests that Bitcoin is "aging" into a long-term holding state over time, without being transferred or sold.
Figure 2: The supply of long-term Bitcoin holders has significantly increased
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding their coins and are transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic, typically seen in the early or mid-stages of a bull market, and has not yet shown signs of large-scale dumping.
HODL Waves Analysis
To further analyze, we used HODL Waves data, which layers wallets by the age of their holdings. Focusing on wallets that have held for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis shows that long-term investors hold the majority of Bitcoin's share
Interestingly, although this ratio remains high, it has begun to slightly decline, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as the supply of long-term holders continues to grow. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply appears to be the gradual "aging" of short-term holders into the holding period of over 155 days, rather than large-scale purchases of new funds.
Figure 4: The rate of change in supply of long-term holders is inversely related to Bitcoin price
By using the raw data provided by the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the changes in the balance of long-term holders classified by wallet holding age. When this metric significantly declines, it often coincides with historical cycle tops. Conversely, when this metric sharply rises, it often corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.
Short-term Changes and Distribution Ratio
To improve the accuracy of these signals, data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent market entrants (0–1 month)" with "medium-term holders (1–5 years)". This distribution comparison of holding periods can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behaviors.
Figure 5: The distribution ratio of holder age provides valuable market insights
We found that when the ratio of holders with 1-5 years of holding time to new holders sharply declines, it has historically coincided with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rises rapidly, meaning more Bitcoin is flowing into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to significant price increases.
The changes in the behavior of long-term investors are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders by buying in times of panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders show only slight dumping behavior, far from the scale seen at the peaks of previous cycles. There is indeed some profit-taking, but the pace at which it occurs appears to be completely controllable, indicating a healthy market environment.
Considering the current bull market phase, as well as the participation of institutional and retail investors, data indicates that we are still in a structurally strong phase, with the potential for further price increases amid the ongoing inflow of new capital.