#美联储FOMC会议# The decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, primarily through expectations of monetary policy, market risk appetite, and dollar liquidity transmission.

1. Interest Rate Policy and Market Liquidity
Rate hike: If the FOMC decides to raise interest rates or releases a hawkish signal (such as implying long-term high rates), it usually leads to:
Cryptocurrency Decline: The high interest rate environment has pushed up the yields on risk-free assets (such as U.S. Treasuries), weakening the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets (such as Bitcoin).
Strong Dollar: The appreciation of the dollar may suppress the prices of cryptocurrencies priced in dollars.
Interest rate cuts or a pause in rate hikes: A dovish stance (such as hinting at a rate cut) often boosts the market:
Cryptocurrency market rebound: Improved liquidity expectations drive up risk assets. For example, after the December 2023 FOMC hinted at the end of interest rate hikes, Bitcoin rose over 20% that month.
2. Balance Sheet Reduction and Liquidity Tightening
The Federal Reserve's reduction of its balance sheet (tapering) will withdraw dollar liquidity from the market, potentially exacerbating selling pressure in the encryption market, especially in a high-leverage environment.
3. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
The economic outlook in the FOMC statement (such as recession concerns or a soft landing) will affect investors' risk appetite:
Risk aversion: If the meeting mentions economic uncertainty, it may trigger a short-term sell-off in the encryption market (linked to US stocks).
Inflation expectations: If the Federal Reserve increases its tolerance for inflation, it may strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin as an "anti-inflation asset."
4. Indirect Channels: Institutional Fund Flow
The Federal Reserve's policies impact the asset allocation of traditional institutions (such as hedge funds and ETFs). For example:
When interest rates are low, institutions may increase their exposure to Bitcoin ETFs and other encryptions.
监管收紧(如缩表+高interest rate)可能迫使机构减持高风险资产。