Bitcoin Whale Dumps $9.6 Billion: Technical Analysis and On-Chain Data Align, Is a $150,000 Target in Sight?

Despite the old Whale dumping $9.6 billion, on-chain data shows that institutions continue to increase their holdings, with exchange balances dropping to a six-year low.

Written by: White55, Mars Finance

The Bitcoin market is witnessing a classic battle between bulls and bears. After hitting a historical high of approximately $123,250, BTC has retraced 7.50% over the past three weeks, temporarily falling below the $113,000 mark. However, analysts see deeper trends beyond the surface—the strong support of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) coincides with the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, forming a technical structure of a "perfect bottom." Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that the $9.6 billion selling by "old whales" is not bearish; rather, it mirrors the profit-taking seen after the approval of ETFs in March 2024 and Trump's victory at the end of 2024. Historically, after such sell-offs, the market has welcomed even stronger rallies.

I. Technical Resonance: Dual Support Levels Build a Launchpad for the Bull Market

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The daily chart of Bitcoin is outlining a typical bull market correction path. On Sunday (August 3), the price quickly reclaimed the key position after briefly falling below the 50-day EMA (red wavy line), replicating the technical script from June—when a similar drop triggered a rapid 25% rebound. This moving average has become a stronghold for bulls since the bull market in 2025, with three retests converting into upward momentum.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

What is more noteworthy is that the 50-day EMA forms a technical resonance with the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. After breaking through this neckline at the end of July, the current pullback is seen as a retest of the validity of the breakout. If it successfully holds, it will open up an upward space with a measured target of 148,250 dollars. This target corresponds with the rounded bottom pattern at the weekly level (targeting 140,000 dollars) and the bullish flag breakout (targeting 150,000 dollars).

The market structure has quietly changed: the CME $115,000 gap has been filled, high leverage positions have been cleaned up, and financing rates have returned to a healthy range, clearing the obstacles for "net long rise."

II. Whale Game: The Bull Market Cooling Mechanism Behind the $9.6 Billion Sell-off

Both the "old Whale" and "new Whale" of Bitcoin are profiting. Source: CryptoQuant

On-chain data reveals the strategic layout of institutional-level funds. CryptoQuant monitoring shows that there have been three instances of whale profit-taking during this bull market:

1. March 2024: After the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, a net inflow of 8.5 billion dollars stimulates the first round of dumping.
2. November 2024: Trump's victory drives BTC to break $100,000, triggering the second round of dumping.
3. July 2025: After a historic breakthrough of $120,000, the "old Whale" transferred 80,000 BTC (approximately $9.6 billion) in a single transaction.

These "Whale" events are accompanied by a consolidation period of 2-4 months, becoming a natural cooling valve for the market.

However, current data shows that whales are still continuously accumulating: addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 83,105 BTC over the past 30 days, and exchange balances have dropped to 2.44 million (a six-year low), indicating a strong reluctance to sell among long-term holders.

III. Macroeconomics and Capital: The Liquidity Tailwind in the Interest Rate Cut Cycle

The logic behind Bitcoin's rise is deeply tied to global monetary policy. The unexpected U.S. non-farm payroll data for July (with only 73,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%) completely reversed market expectations, causing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to soar to 80%. This confirms the previous prediction made in the Xueqiu column: under the combination of $31 trillion in Treasury bond issuance and the rate cut cycle, Bitcoin will become a beneficiary of the "fiscal dominance" paradigm.

Capital inflows show a structural transformation:

• ETF continues to attract funds: In the past two weeks, the spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of $2.9 billion, with BlackRock holding over 700,000 BTC, and management fee income surpassing that of the S&P 500 ETF.
• Corporate Reserve Monetization: Mexican hotel giant invests $500 million in BTC, Japan's Metaplanet holds over 2,200 coins, with traditional industries like healthcare and chips following suit.
• Ethereum ETF rebounds: 10 consecutive weeks of 0 outflow, a record $3.5 billion raised in a single month, with staking yield (annualized 4%) making it a "digital bond".

4. 150,000 USD Target: Resonance of Historical Cycles and Technical Patterns

Multiple technical models point to a target range of $140,000 - $150,000:

• Round Bottom Pattern Theory: After breaking the neckline at $106,660 on the daily level, the measured target is $140,000 (37% higher than the current price).
• VIX Correlation Model: When the volatility index is below 18 in a "risk appetite" environment, Bitcoin economist Timothy Peterson predicts a target of $135,000 in the next 100 days (95% accuracy).
• Halving cycle pattern: After the fourth halving in May 2024, history shows that a bull market peak will occur in 12-18 months, making October 2025 a critical window.

The essential logic supporting these goals lies in the "asset repricing" of Bitcoin: it has transformed from a fringe speculative asset into a tool for corporate balance sheet allocation. When MicroStrategy holds 190,000 BTC and BlackRock includes it in its trillion-dollar asset management empire, Bitcoin's liquidity has crushed gold, becoming the new "standard for corporate reserves."

As mainstream media remains indifferent and retail investors panic due to non-farm data, savvy funds are seizing the opportunity to position themselves. From filling the CME gap to the completion of Whale handover, from rising interest rate cut expectations to the spread of corporate coin hoarding, both technical and fundamental aspects have formed an upward resonance. If historical patterns repeat, the current volatility may be the final washout before Bitcoin hits $150,000.