Three major alts face a critical week: SPK Airdrop Lock-up Position countdown, OP massive unlock pressure, SUI liquidation storm approaching.

As Bitcoin enters a sideways consolidation, market focus shifts to potential alts with technical and event catalysts. Spark (SPK) faces a sell pressure test after the airdrop lock-up deadline (July 29), Optimism (OP) is about to unlock 1.84% of its circulating supply (July 31, worth $22.8 million), while Sui (SUI) is trapped in a key liquidation zone at $4.20 after breaking out of a triangle pattern, compounded by the risk of unlocking $188 million tokens on August 1. The movements of these three will reveal the rotation direction of alts and market risk appetite.

【Spark (SPK): Airdrop value surged by 233%, lock-up deadline may trigger a long-short showdown】

Airdrop mechanism drives scarcity

• Lock-up Countdown Effect: The second phase of the SPK Ignition Airdrop requires users to lock their tokens until August 12, before July 29, resulting in a sharp decrease in Circulating Supply and driving the SPK/USDT price to surge nearly 7 times within 72 hours. The current Airdrop valuation skyrocketed from $180,000 to $600,000 (+233%), leaving holders with the choice of "taking profits" or "betting for higher returns."
• Technical Upgrade Reshapes Valuation: On July 21st, the mainnet upgrade introduced an efficient consensus mechanism and on-chain governance, with TVL surpassing $8.15 billion. The token has shifted from being an "Airdrop Target" to a functional asset, attracting long-term capital allocation.

Price Divergence and Risk Signals

• Severe Volatility: SPK rebounded 552% from the low on July 9th and recently retraced 45% to $0.101, forming an overbought correction (RSI once reached 86). Key support is at $0.072 (50-day moving average), if it fails to hold, it could deeply probe $0.03-$0.035; conversely, if it stabilizes above $0.11, it may aim for $0.16.

• Today's Strategy: Airdrop recipients should be wary of short-term selling pressure after July 29, but the growth of on-chain TVL and the implementation of governance functions may cushion the decline. Daily volatility may exceed 30%, and short-term trading is advised to take profits in batches.

  

💡 Long Tail Opportunities: If the SPK network integrates more DeFi protocols in August, staking yields may attract institutional funds, pushing the price towards the predicted high of $0.165 by 2025.

【Optimism (OP): Massive unlock coupled with technical breakout, the downward channel may exacerbate】

Unlock Event Pressure

• Selling Pressure Quantification: On July 31, 31.34 million OP will be unlocked (Circulating Supply 1.79%), valued at $22.8 million. Historical data shows that OP has averaged a decline of 8.85% during past unlock weeks, and the current market depth indicates a dominance of sell orders, significantly pressuring the short-term.
• Weak ecological growth: Despite being a leading L2, OP's on-chain activities have not broken through the bottleneck, with competitors like Arbitrum siphoning developers, and the stagnation in TVL growth weakening Token demand.

Technical analysis is on the brink of breaking down

• Downward Channel Established: OP daily chart is constrained by the descending trend line since February 2024, currently at $0.7265, below the 100-day moving average. If it breaks below the $0.70 neckline, it may trigger a "descending triangle" breakdown, targeting $0.40 (a decline of 45%).

• Only Reversal Opportunity: A single-day volume breakout above $0.85 (previous high resistance) is needed, but the unlocking sell pressure makes the probability lower than 20%.

  

⚠️ Hedging Strategy: The options market shows a surge in demand for OP put options, with open contracts at an exercise price of $0.70 increasing by 47% week over week, reflecting institutional bets on a short-term decline.

【Sui (SUI): Liquidation cluster and $188 million unlock resonance, triangle breakout faces ultimate test】

Price trapped in the "liquidation danger zone"

• Long and Short Kill Zone: SUI is currently at $4.20, with over $3 million in long liquidation orders stacked between $4.05 and $4.12 below, and a similar scale of short liquidation orders lurking between $4.40 and $4.45 above. A breakout in either direction of 2% will trigger a chain liquidation, amplifying volatility to ±15%.
• On-chain accumulation signal: Despite the price pressure, there has been a recent outflow of $8.74 million SUI from exchanges, indicating that whales are accumulating on dips. The weighted sentiment index is -0.934 (extremely pessimistic), forming a reverse bullish signal.

Unlocking and Fundamental Game

• August 1 Unlock Bomb: 44 million SUI (Circulating Supply 1.27%, valued at $188 million) will be released, coinciding with a sensitive liquidation period. If the price drops below $4.0, selling pressure may accelerate.

• TVL Growth Support: Sui chain DeFi TVL increased by 42% this year (reaching 564 million SUI), BTCFi ecosystem expansion attracts Bitcoin liquidity, supporting long-term valuation. If the technical level stabilizes above $4.40, the double top pattern will fail, targeting the historical high of $5.35.

  

Long and Short Strategy Reference

• Long Opportunity: Go long after breaking $4.45, target $4.60 (Fibonacci extension level), stop loss at $4.25.
• Short Opportunity: If it breaks below $4.05, go short with a target of $3.90 (support level), stop loss at $4.15.

[Altcoin Rotation Warning: Capital Flow Reveals the Next Opportunity]

Short-term Risk Ranking

1. OP Unlock Sell Pressure (July 31): High Circulating Supply Release + Technical Breakdown, Risk Level ★★★★☆
2. SPK Airdrop Redemption (after July 29): Profit-taking may occur, but TVL growth provides a buffer, risk level ★★★☆☆
3. SUI Liquidation Storm (Immediate Trigger): High volatility but there are breakout opportunities, Risk Level ★★☆☆☆

Capital Migration Signal

• Stablecoin Hedging Heats Up: XBIT platform stablecoin trading volume increased by 34% week-on-week, reaching $63.2 million, indicating a preference for low-risk assets during the event window.
• Small Market Cap Token Volatility: Tokens like KMINO and REZ have risen against the trend after unlocking, reflecting the logic of speculative funds betting on "bad news fully priced in", but the high circulating supply ratio (such as KMINO unlocking 9.53%) limits the increase.

Conclusion: The event-driven trading window is open, and the three major tokens are setting the tone for the altcoin season.

This week SPK, OP, and SUI will validate the resilience of the cryptocurrency market under macro pressure:

1. SPK: The fundamental value of the sell pressure testing project after the Airdrop Lock-up Position ends, $0.072 is the bull-bear boundary;
2. OP: A massive unlock or intensified technical breakdown, the $0.70 defense line determines whether to avoid the "death spiral";
3. SUI: The liquidation cluster and unlock create a "perfect storm", and the $4.40 battle will determine whether a new upward cycle begins.

📊 On-chain Monitoring Checklist: SPK Lock-up Position address changes, OP exchange deposit volume, SUI perpetual contract funding rate.

(This analysis is based on Token Unlocks, DeFi Llama, and exchange depth data, and does not constitute investment advice. High volatility assets require strict risk control.)