Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Institutional Fund Flows and On-Chain Dynamics Take Center Stage

Bitcoin price movement: Bitcoin continues to show a lack of upward momentum, with the current trading price below the $110,000 mark. However, it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin has welcomed a new round of rebound today, and as of the time of writing this article, BTC is currently quoted at $109,528, rising 1.7% in the past 24 hours.

Institutional Reallocation and Local Exhaustion Signals: Is Late June a Key Turning Point?

Despite approaching historical highs in recent weeks, Bitcoin seems to be in a stagnation mode, with institutional fund flows and on-chain dynamics becoming the focus. CryptoQuant writer Kripto Mevsimi recently analyzed that there was unusual Bitcoin on-chain activity in late June.

In the analysis titled "Whale Profit Taking and Loss Confirmation: Is Late June a Local Turning Point?", the analyst pointed out the divergence in Bitcoin whale behavior:

• Recorded a realized profit of up to $641 million.
• A realized loss of over $1.24 billion also occurred.
• This combination may indicate a potential turning point in cryptocurrency market sentiment.

Mevsimi emphasized that this mixed profit and loss confirmation trend appeared at the end of the second quarter, which is usually a time for institutional portfolios to make adjustments. "Structurally, late June is also the end of the first half (H1), when Bitcoin ETFs and institutional funds typically engage in portfolio rebalancing," he wrote.

Mevsimi added: "This timing adds weight: this is not just market noise - it could be a deliberate position adjustment." It is worth noting that these large realized profit and loss activities did not continue into early July, which may indicate temporary market stability or the beginning of a new phase.

The report also details the differences in whale behavior:

• Newly Entering Whales (short-term participants possibly entering in the second quarter) are showing signs of capitulation, realizing both profits and confirming significant losses.
• Senior whales have locked in a profit of $91 million, with losses negligible.

This differentiation may indicate a shift in market dominance: experienced holders are reducing risk exposure, while short-term players are exiting amid market uncertainty. Mevsimi believes that the convergence of these trends suggests that the market may be in a local exhaustion phase, rather than a sustained rise.

LTH Unrealized Profit and Historical Comparison: Has the Top Not Been Reached?

In another analysis, CryptoQuant's Darkfost explored the unrealized profit status of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH). Despite the BTC price being close to historical highs, this indicator shows a downward trend.

According to the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value ratio), Darkfost pointed out that the average unrealized profit has fallen to about 220%. This is far below the peaks of 300% and 350% reached during the market tops in March and December 2024, respectively.

"Although these profits seem considerable, we are still far from the levels observed at the top of this cycle," Darkfost said. The realized price of LTH is currently around $39,000, indicating strong support in the market, but also reinforcing the signal that crypto market speculation has not yet fully materialized.