Market Analysis: Global liquidity is recovering and expectations for interest rate cuts by The Federal Reserve (FED) are increasing, BTC may see a breakthrough in Q4.

Odaily News on-chain analyst @arndxtxo pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in a "non-correlation window period" similar to February 2025, with prices sideways in the range of 100–108K. The BTC price movement has not yet synchronized with macro liquidity, but historical data shows that changes in the M2 Money Supply of major global Central Banks lead BTC performance in 80% of cases. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 has turned positive from negative, coupled with several Federal Reserve officials hinting at a rate cut as early as July, and the FOMC dot plot also supports a rate cut once within the year. Technically, BTC has confirmed a golden cross, and the weekly trend remains; if it breaks through 108K, it is expected to reach 133K. If liquidity continues to improve and a policy shift occurs, Q4 could become a critical window for BTC's upward momentum.