What's really scary isn't that the technical narrative can't be delivered, it's that people are simply abandoning the narrative packaging and fully embracing the memeized casino culture.
Written by: Haotian
During my travels in Lijiang and Dali, while chatting with several first-line Builders, they all mentioned a common feeling: the current primary market of Crypto seems to be caught in a "dead end" multiple crisis:
1) Narrative is completely meaningless, and casino culture dominates?
In fact, what is truly frightening is not that the technical narrative cannot deliver, but that everyone directly gives up on narrative packaging and fully embraces the MEME culture of the casino.
The slow delivery of technical narratives is at least a matter of long-termism, with the innovative costs covered by the initial VC rounds, as well as the process of project parties building, testing, and launching on the mainnet according to their Roadmap. The transparent presentation during this period can help ordinary users recognize the strength of the project and form value judgments.
But what about now? Everything has turned into a game of pure community operation and financial games behind the scenes, with trading opportunities exaggerated to the point of being counted by the day or even by the minute. When the market is no longer focused on long-term development around technical narratives, the risks of pure MEME trading are magnified exponentially, making this market more perilous for the vast majority of people.
Data doesn't lie. According to relevant data, the number of active Crypto developers on Github has dropped by nearly 30% from last year's peak, while the hiring packages for engineers at AI and traditional tech companies have been skyrocketing during the same period.
The logic is simple: when OpenAI, Google, and Meta are all competing in the AI arms race to build silicon-based civilization and attract talent, how many developers can the narrative of Crypto's "disrupting the internet" still retain?
The key is that after two or three rounds of Build cycles, the enthusiasm for innovation among developers in Crypto has rapidly declined into an internal consumption stage, and truly groundbreaking technological advancements from 0 to 1 are scarce. Concepts like Restaking, Intent, and AI Agent have had their rounds of popularity, but what about practical applications? Where is the PMF? For some reason, everyone is reinventing the wheel, yet they feel powerless and helpless about how far the wheel can go?
Originally trapped in market noise and wasted time, most people still had a belief to hold on, that things would eventually get better. But now? Where are the holders?
3) Lack of incremental attraction in the OTC market, is Crypto tending towards marginalization?
The attraction of Crypto to off-market funds and talent is obviously insufficient. Just look at the current situation: the real secondary altcoin season is in the US stock AI market, the real primary innovation market is in the web2 AI field, and Crypto's appeal to traditional VCs and top talent is increasingly diminished, instead, it is labeled as "speculation and profiteering," losing its respectability.
The reason is that Crypto, besides the "issuing coins" label, does not have any other strong cards to play. Although ETFs have brought in institutional funds, that is more of an acknowledgment at the financial instrument level, and the inflow of Wall Street funds is merely for asset allocation, which is tenuously linked to the altcoin market.
What scenarios must be Crypto? In the past, the value of Crypto was to provide a relatively free experimental space for financial innovation, but when traditional financial institutions began to embrace this market through stablecoins, ETFs, etc., what irreplaceable value can Crypto bring to users in addition to the technical feature of "decentralization"?
Note: Bringing up this topic is for discussion only. Although confused, at least I am still willing to believe that the real way out may be not far away. Staying optimistic is the best support; otherwise, what else can we do!
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
The current Crypto Primary Market seems to be陷入 a "dead end" multiple crisis.
Written by: Haotian
During my travels in Lijiang and Dali, while chatting with several first-line Builders, they all mentioned a common feeling: the current primary market of Crypto seems to be caught in a "dead end" multiple crisis:
1) Narrative is completely meaningless, and casino culture dominates?
In fact, what is truly frightening is not that the technical narrative cannot deliver, but that everyone directly gives up on narrative packaging and fully embraces the MEME culture of the casino.
The slow delivery of technical narratives is at least a matter of long-termism, with the innovative costs covered by the initial VC rounds, as well as the process of project parties building, testing, and launching on the mainnet according to their Roadmap. The transparent presentation during this period can help ordinary users recognize the strength of the project and form value judgments.
But what about now? Everything has turned into a game of pure community operation and financial games behind the scenes, with trading opportunities exaggerated to the point of being counted by the day or even by the minute. When the market is no longer focused on long-term development around technical narratives, the risks of pure MEME trading are magnified exponentially, making this market more perilous for the vast majority of people.
2) Developer acceleration loss, technological innovation stagnation?
Data doesn't lie. According to relevant data, the number of active Crypto developers on Github has dropped by nearly 30% from last year's peak, while the hiring packages for engineers at AI and traditional tech companies have been skyrocketing during the same period.
The logic is simple: when OpenAI, Google, and Meta are all competing in the AI arms race to build silicon-based civilization and attract talent, how many developers can the narrative of Crypto's "disrupting the internet" still retain?
The key is that after two or three rounds of Build cycles, the enthusiasm for innovation among developers in Crypto has rapidly declined into an internal consumption stage, and truly groundbreaking technological advancements from 0 to 1 are scarce. Concepts like Restaking, Intent, and AI Agent have had their rounds of popularity, but what about practical applications? Where is the PMF? For some reason, everyone is reinventing the wheel, yet they feel powerless and helpless about how far the wheel can go?
Originally trapped in market noise and wasted time, most people still had a belief to hold on, that things would eventually get better. But now? Where are the holders?
3) Lack of incremental attraction in the OTC market, is Crypto tending towards marginalization?
The attraction of Crypto to off-market funds and talent is obviously insufficient. Just look at the current situation: the real secondary altcoin season is in the US stock AI market, the real primary innovation market is in the web2 AI field, and Crypto's appeal to traditional VCs and top talent is increasingly diminished, instead, it is labeled as "speculation and profiteering," losing its respectability.
The reason is that Crypto, besides the "issuing coins" label, does not have any other strong cards to play. Although ETFs have brought in institutional funds, that is more of an acknowledgment at the financial instrument level, and the inflow of Wall Street funds is merely for asset allocation, which is tenuously linked to the altcoin market.
What scenarios must be Crypto? In the past, the value of Crypto was to provide a relatively free experimental space for financial innovation, but when traditional financial institutions began to embrace this market through stablecoins, ETFs, etc., what irreplaceable value can Crypto bring to users in addition to the technical feature of "decentralization"?
Note: Bringing up this topic is for discussion only. Although confused, at least I am still willing to believe that the real way out may be not far away. Staying optimistic is the best support; otherwise, what else can we do!