Bitcoin Dominance Hits Four-Year High — How Far Away Is Altcoin Season?
As of June 17, 2025, the Bitcoin dominance rate (BTC.D) has risen to 64.85%, reaching its highest level since April 2021. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also broken through the strong range of 72.02, highlighting the continuous concentration of market funds towards Bitcoin. Behind this data is Bitcoin’s showcase of its “safe-haven asset” characteristics amid macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in the context of market anxiety triggered by Trump’s tariff policies, leading to a faster withdrawal of funds from altcoins.
Key Indicators Tug-of-War: Are the “Outpost Signals” of Alt Season Already Appearing?
Despite Bitcoin’s absolute dominance, multiple indicators show that altcoins are building momentum:
- Alt season index has come out of the trough: The “alt season index,” which measures the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, has risen from a low of 13.1 in March to 23, breaking through the “Bitcoin season” range and entering neutral territory, indicating that about 23% of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin on a daily basis.
- ETH/BTC exchange rate reversal: The Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate has ended a 669-day downtrend, forming a bottom on a weekly basis, with a technical pattern similar to early 2020—after which a 20-month altcoin bull market began.
- Stablecoins are poised for action: The total market cap of stablecoins has reached $255 billion (U.S. compliant stablecoins have increased by 104% year-over-year), and should large amounts of off-exchange funds shift, it could quickly ignite the buying power of altcoins.
Bitcoin’s Suppression Power: 65% as a Key Watershed
Bitcoin’s current dominance at a high level exerts a dual pressure on altcoins:
- Liquidity siphoning effect: Bitcoin’s monthly increase reached 26% (current price around $105,000), significantly raising the yield comparison benchmark, forcing investors to prioritize allocating BTC.
- Technological resistance sensitive area: If BTC.D breaks through 65% and stabilizes, it may trigger algorithmic trading funds to further flood into Bitcoin, squeezing altcoin space; conversely, if it falls back below 63.45%, it may ignite an altcoin rally.
Market Sentiment Divergence: 99% of Retail Investors Disbelieve Alt Season, Analysts Smell Opportunity
Crypto analyst Crypto Rover pointed out that currently 99% of retail investors have lost confidence in the “alt season is coming”, but history shows that such extreme sentiment divergence often indicates a reversal is near. Institutions are more focused on infrastructure progress: Ethereum Layer 2 networks (such as Base) have a TPS exceeding 500, with an annual growth of over 36%, laying the foundation for the explosion of DeFi, GameFi, and other altcoin applications.
Conclusion: June may be a prelude, but we need to wait for BTC to “abdicate”.
Combining on-chain data and technical indicators, early signs of alt season have emerged as of June 2025, with Layer 2 adoption rate, stablecoin liquidity, and ETH strength forming a triangular support. However, the decisive signal still needs to be observed whether Bitcoin’s dominance can substantively drop below 63%.
Investors can closely monitor two key thresholds: the alt season index breaking above 50, or BTC.D weekly closing below 63.45%—at which point the market may welcome a delayed frenzy. Before that, AI sector tokens (VIRTUAL) and Ethereum ecosystem coins (related to AAVE), being sensitive to capital rotation, can serve as leading indicators.
