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BTC and ETH are oscillating upward, and market sentiment has turned to extreme greed.
Analysis of BTC and ETH Trends This Week
This week, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has shown a fluctuating upward trend:
In terms of Bitcoin, although the Mtgox address saw a movement of 13,264.69 BTC again, it did not trigger market panic. The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes indicated a dovish stance on interest rate cuts in September, leading to a temporary increase in Bitcoin on Wednesday. However, the market still lacks confidence in future expectations, resulting in a subsequent price pullback, ultimately presenting a trend of oscillation upwards.
Although Ethereum has also followed Bitcoin to rise out of the volatility, its strength is weaker than that of Bitcoin. From the perspective of the US stock market, the trading volume of Ethereum spot ETFs has shown signs of outflow this week. Additionally, the Ethereum ecosystem lacks wealth creation effects, leading funds within the circle to flow towards Meme coins in the Tron ecosystem, while outside funds lack confidence and interest in Ethereum, resulting in Ethereum's relatively weak performance this week.
Important Market Events
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, clearly stating that if the data meets expectations, a rate cut in September may be appropriate. The market has fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut in September, with the cut expected to be 25 basis points.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the number of jobs for the year ending in March down to 818,000, marking the largest revision in 15 years. Although the data fell short of expectations, the market believes this will lead the Federal Reserve to firmly cut interest rates in September, and it has not raised recession fears.
The Mtgox address has seen a movement of 13264.69 BTC again, which is believed to be a continuation of compensation to previous victims. However, it has not caused market panic, and it is expected that as the remaining BTC supply decreases, the impact of Mtgox will gradually diminish.
Altcoin Market Overview
This week, market sentiment has risen to 90%, moving from extreme fear to extreme greed. Altcoins continue the rebound trend from last week, significantly outperforming BTC and ETH, with almost all sectors showing an upward trend. However, most tokens have low trading volumes, indicating limited capital inflow, making a broad rally difficult to sustain. Investors are advised to pay attention to recent risks and prepare for defense.
The top five tokens on the rise are dispersed across different tracks such as DEX, POW, cross-chain, and stablecoins, indicating that funds are not concentrated in specific sectors, but rather targeting individual projects with positive news or highlights for speculation.
In terms of Meme coins, SUNDOG and SUN in the Tron ecosystem have seen significant increases, mainly due to Sun Yuchen's public support for Meme coins to settle on Tron. However, the popularity of other on-chain Meme coins is waning, with decreased capital participation and rising risks.
The most followed sector on social media is the L1s track, and most projects have shown an upward trend this week. This may be a continuation of last week's rebound or the beginning of sector rotation, but the latter is less likely.
Sector Performance
According to the weekly return rate statistics, the AI track performed the best, while the SocialFi track performed the worst.
After several weeks of sluggishness, the AI sector has started to rebound, but trading volume remains low, and investors should remain cautious.
The SocialFi track is mainly influenced by TON, accounting for 95.21% of the market value in this sector. After Binance launched TON mining last week, there was a slight pullback this week, leading to an overall underperformance. However, other SocialFi projects have seen decent gains.
Outlook for Next Week
Bitcoin may continue to experience wide fluctuations. Although there are negative factors such as the downward revision of U.S. employment data, they are offset by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. The market remains cautious, and BTC purchase volume is insufficient.
Ethereum or Bitcoin remains in a correlated oscillation. Continuous outflow of funds from spot ETFs, a lack of hotspots and innovation on-chain, makes it difficult to attract new capital inflows.
Altcoins may end their rebound and oscillate in sync with the broader market. Although there has been a general increase this week, the trading volume of the top tokens is relatively low, which is worth noting.