Perspective on the zone rotation pattern after Ethereum's rise

Original Author | @0x Artikal

Compiled | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Translator | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)

This article is compiled from two tweets by @0x Artikal, assembled by Odaily Planet Daily. As the current market heat continues to rise, this article attempts to provide readers with observations and judgments of market participants from the perspectives of capital flow and cycle evolution, listening to the voice of the market. The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Bitcoin has broken its historical high, with the price reaching as much as 123,000 dollars. This trend has sparked a divide in the market: some investors are bullish up to 200,000 dollars, believing there is still room for growth; while others think it is nearing the cycle top and recommend taking profits.

But compared to these market sentiments, what deserves more attention is the data itself. Analysis of trading behaviors and capital flows shows that the current market is much more complex than it appears on the surface.

As BTC surged to new highs, the behavior of large holders on Binance underwent significant changes. The whale activity indicator suddenly increased, suggesting that market sentiment may be shifting. Within just one day, over 1,800 BTC net flowed into Binance, indicating that a large amount of capital is moving towards more liquid trading platforms.

Further observation reveals that over 35% of these inflows come from single transactions exceeding 1 million dollars, which are clearly not retail investors. A large amount of data indicates that this is a collective response behavior from several large holders to the new highs, showing strong coordination.

In addition, data shows that most of these inflowed coins have been held for less than three months, indicating a strong speculative sentiment. However, at the same time, some long-term holders who have held their tokens for more than a year are transferring them to exchanges, adding a layer of uncertainty to the future direction of the market.

The first type is typical profit-taking. Transferring BTC to exchanges immediately after the price reaches a new high likely indicates that investors intend to realize their gains. This behavior is not uncommon; they often prefer to lock in profits at high levels and wait for an opportunity to re-enter the market. If this trend continues, the market may experience a moderate correction in the coming days.

The second possibility is more strategic. The movement of these large amounts of funds may be for risk hedging or to establish leveraged positions using Binance's deep liquidity. This suggests that these large holders may anticipate further market volatility and are currently preparing for the next round of market activity. If this is the case, even if there is a short-term adjustment, its magnitude may be small, and the market is expected to quickly rebalance.

It is worth noting that this wave of capital flow involves not only short-term speculators but also long-term holders, indicating that it is likely multiple large participants executing a certain strategy in sync. In just one day, over 1,800 BTC were transferred to Binance, which cannot be underestimated in terms of its impact on the platform's short-term liquidity, and it has also significantly increased the market's sensitivity to large orders.

The operations of these whales are likely driven by strategic considerations, aiming to seize the turning point of the trend. At such critical psychological junctures, the collective actions of large holders often exert a pressure effect on retail investors' sentiment. As prices reach new highs, market sentiment oscillates sharply between excitement and tension, further catalyzing a speculative atmosphere and increasing the probability of short-term volatility.

At the same time, the overall liquidity of Binance is also rising, attracting more institutional traders to enter the market. For these professional players, the ability to quickly build positions and flexibly close them is particularly crucial. At this stage, whale behavior almost determines the overall market sentiment and price direction. Therefore, for all investors, closely tracking the flow of funds, especially the real-time movements of large transfers, is particularly important.

Whether the market chooses to pull back or continue oscillating upwards, one thing is certain: the current volatility is rising and risks are intensifying. Any subtle changes in sentiment and liquidity are almost instantly reflected in the prices. The entire market is in an extremely sensitive period, where even minor events can trigger a significant price movement.

We have previously witnessed that just one large trader's actions on Binance triggered a new round of breakout for Bitcoin. This fully demonstrates that the behavior of large funds has a decisive impact on the shaping of market structure.

For long-term investors, this may not be a signal to "liquidate and escape," but rather a test of trend resilience. A large amount of BTC moving into exchanges is likely just a strategic reallocation, rather than a mass withdrawal. Of course, severe volatility in the short term is almost unavoidable, and it may also serve as a window for reconfiguring assets and optimizing positions.

At present, the market is in a delicate balance: profit-taking coexists with strategic deployment. In the coming days, the movements of large holders on Binance, as well as changes in the overall liquidity environment, will continue to dominate the market rhythm. Investors need to remain highly vigilant and be ready to adjust their strategies according to market dynamics.

After all, Bitcoin is still in the spotlight, and every move it makes continues to affect the entire cryptocurrency market.

Note: This tweet was published on July 17, 2025

Evolutionary Path of Periodic Market Structure

If we look at the typical evolutionary path of past cryptocurrency market cycles, how do we define the position we are currently in?

While BTC leads the price breakout, ETH has begun to show signs of relative strength. From the movement of ETH/BTC, the exchange rate has broken through the consolidation range it has been in for several months, which is the first signal that the rotation structure has officially begun.

Generally speaking, market rotation always unfolds along the following path: BTC leads → ETH follows → High market cap coins catch up → Ultimately leads to a comprehensive altcoin season. The fact that ETH is outperforming BTC indicates that market liquidity is shifting from the BTC-dominated structure to the next phase represented by ETH.

BTC usually leads the charge, and when ETH starts to catch up, or even performs stronger, it indicates that a broader range of capital is willing to take on greater risks. ETH is not just ETH; it also serves as a "bridge" to DeFi and other altcoins. Its strength signifies a recovery of confidence in the entire market.

After ETH started to gain momentum, high market cap projects such as SOL, XRP, and ADA have seen strong buying interest. They are often regarded as "index-like" alternative bets following ETH. Once these coins take off, funds will continue to flow into mid-cap projects with market caps below $1 billion, retail attention will surge, and the market narrative will change daily. Traders seeking higher Beta returns will accelerate capital rotation.

Mining coins (e.g., DCR) typically begin to follow the trend only after medium market cap coins are launched. At this point, the market enters a highly reflexive state: the greater the price increases, the more inflow there is; the more inflow there is, the faster the price rises. This stage is a breeding ground for Memecoins to easily explode into short-term parabolic trends.

This entire cycle is essentially a natural chain of "liquidity sinking." Starting with BTC leading the way, funds gradually migrate: ETH, mainstream altcoins, mid-cap coins, and finally to meme and small-cap tokens. In this process, volatility and market acceleration continue to strengthen.

Structurally, we are at the starting point of the "ETH phase": rotation is beginning to appear, it has not yet overheated, and the opportunity window remains open. The strength of ETH will further drive liquidity to continue migrating downwards, while the retail FOMO sentiment has not yet been fully ignited. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 60 - 65, leaving some space before reaching extreme emotions. This also means that there is still enough room for an upward movement in this cycle.

The direction of the entire market has become very clear: BTC has lit the fuse, ETH is picking up speed, and high market cap tokens will quickly catch up. After that, a true comprehensive altcoin season will arrive as scheduled, with mid-cap coins, Memecoins, and various concept coins taking turns until all liquidity is exhausted.

The leading performance of ETH is not only a confirmation of the trend but also the starting point for the next phase.