Bitcoin is stagnant ahead of FOMC and SLR rumors.

The price of Bitcoin is fluctuating below the threshold of 107,000 dollars, while supply pressure continues to limit the upward momentum. At the same time, traders' attention is focused on the interest rate decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of America during the meeting on June 17-18.

Bitcoin slows below 107,000 dollar ahead of Fed decision

The FOMC's interest rate decision tomorrow is considered extremely important, especially after the CPI report ( consumer price index ) last week. Accordingly, inflation in America has risen again in May – the first time since February.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market is almost certain that the Fed will not cut interest rates in this round.

!()https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-31198562f87691e08627921fa2953639[bitcoin]The probability of FOMC rate cuts | Source: CME FedWatchIn this context, speculators are starting to shift their focus towards more discreet liquidity sources, especially changes related to the Supplemental Leverage Ratio (SLR), which is seen as a potential underlying factor that could trigger the next bullish wave in the crypto market.

"Bitcoin has tried to break through the top of the current price range but once again failed to break through. Resistance around $108,000 remains an important area to watch. If it has not been clearly overcome, it is not the time to get too excited – the market is still fluctuating in a larger range," said analyst Daan Crypto Trades.

Although the Fed is widely predicted to keep interest rates unchanged – with the probability remaining at 98% in June and 84% in July according to data from Polymarket – some crypto analysts are paying more attention to the undisclosed matters.

"There are no rate cuts this week. Everyone is watching interest rates, but real liquidity comes from SLRs," Quinten said.

SLR (tỷ leveraged sung) is a regulatory capital requirement that limits banks' exposure to certain asset classes, especially U.S. government bonds.

SLR could be the catalyst for the next wave of liquidity in the crypto market

The easing of this regulation will enable banks to easily absorb additional debt, thereby increasing liquidity in the market without the need for direct quantitative easing (QE) measures.

Meanwhile, investor sentiment regarding interest rate policy remains sharply divided, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell firmly resists political pressure from President Donald Trump.

"America will once again be too slow to cut interest rates. But once they start cutting... the crypto market will explode," analyst Mister Crypto commented.

Recent comments by Chamath Palihapitiya on the All-In podcast have sparked even more speculation. This Canadian-American venture capitalist suggests that the Fed's hesitation is actually politically motivated.

"If there are all the good reasons to cut interest rates and that has many other positive effects on the U.S. economy, then why not? The only reason is because of politics," he said.

Quoting this investor, the All-In podcast said that if the Fed cuts interest rates by 100 basis points – as proposed by Trump – it could help reduce interest costs on the national debt by as much as $300 billion, while stimulating economic growth through expanding borrowing and boosting GDP. despite potential inflation risks.

While the Fed's decision may be predictable, the real developments come from Jerome Powell's press conference. Even small changes in tone can cause significant market fluctuations.

"There is one factor that is even more important than the decision on interest rates - that is Powell's press conference... If there are signs of negotiations in the Iran-Israel conflict occurring before the FOMC meeting, the Fed may hint at ending the QE program and the possibility of rate cuts. At that time, the market could surge and altcoins would pump. Conversely, if nothing happens, this will just be a dump event," analyst Cipher X wrote.

In another development, analyst Marty Party believes that the GENIUS Act – along with the FOMC's interest rate decision – is also a potential positive factor for Bitcoin's price.

"Bitcoin is in the Wyckoff accumulation phase from February to June 16 - it has now entered the final stage. In my opinion, the GENIUS Act or FOMC will be the excuse to enter the bullish phase."

According to the Wyckoff market cycle, after the accumulation phase, the asset will enter the markup phase, with strong buying pressure increasing and an upward trend being established. This is often the starting point for a sustainable price increase, as the asset establishes new peak levels.

Bitcoin Price Outlook Before FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Data from TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin is trading around 105,697 dollars at the time of writing, with the demand zone ranging from 101,461 to 105,923 dollars.

The buying momentum is expected to emerge in this area, as the positive volume charts (the green dots) indicate that many investors are waiting to enter the market if BTC drops to that zone.

If buying pressure increases, the price of Bitcoin may return to retest the supply zone around $109,242 – $111,634. Breaking above and closing a candle above the $110,478 ( midpoint of the supply zone) on the daily timeframe could set the stage for a new bullish wave towards Bitcoin's next all-time high.

!()https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-bd41741a52f34fe72eac8635c17d7f1a[bitcoin]BTC Price Chart | Source: TradingViewConversely, if selling pressure increases and the price of Bitcoin falls below the median of $103,529, closing the candle below this support zone could exacerbate losses.

Similarly, volume charts with a bearish trend (thanh or colored dots đỏ) indicate that the bears are waiting for an opportunity to interact with the BTC price around this area.

As both macro risks and technical pressures increase, traders are not only monitoring the Fed's interest rate stance.

Minh Anh