On June 16, QCP released its daily market watch, saying, "Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has yet to show signs of panic decline. After an initial shock on Friday's Iran-Israel news, the crypto market benchmark asset has gradually recovered its losses, recovering from a weekly low of $102,800 to $107,000. A similar rally has been seen in other major crypto assets and U.S. stock index futures. Behind Bitcoin's strong performance, institutions continue to increase their positions as a key support. Notably, institutions such as Metaplanet and Strategy continued to buy in the pullback, while spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive week. After Bitcoin held the key psychological threshold of $100,000, market sentiment stabilized significantly. More critically, this round of correction is only 3%, far less than the more than 8% drop in April last year when the Iran-Israel situation escalated. On a more macro level, despite rising geopolitical risks, the overall market response has been relatively calm. Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility remains below 40 and the VIX fear index is stable around 20, both of which are historically low levels in the current situation. At the same time, U.S. Treasuries and a variety of Asian sovereign bonds attracted inflows, suggesting that the market has not yet fully shifted to risk-off mode. However, caution remains. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it could lead to a spike in oil prices; If the situation escalates further, or if the United States directly intervenes militarily, global risk assets could suffer even more. Ironically, some argue that these risks themselves could be structurally positive for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently only about a 6% retracement from its all-time high, and recent moves reinforce the idea that Bitcoin adoption is being driven by a combination of macro disruptions, rising sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical instability."
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QCP: Bitcoin withstands the impact of the Middle East situation, and macro turmoil instead reinforces its structural strength.
On June 16, QCP released its daily market watch, saying, "Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has yet to show signs of panic decline. After an initial shock on Friday's Iran-Israel news, the crypto market benchmark asset has gradually recovered its losses, recovering from a weekly low of $102,800 to $107,000. A similar rally has been seen in other major crypto assets and U.S. stock index futures. Behind Bitcoin's strong performance, institutions continue to increase their positions as a key support. Notably, institutions such as Metaplanet and Strategy continued to buy in the pullback, while spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive week. After Bitcoin held the key psychological threshold of $100,000, market sentiment stabilized significantly. More critically, this round of correction is only 3%, far less than the more than 8% drop in April last year when the Iran-Israel situation escalated. On a more macro level, despite rising geopolitical risks, the overall market response has been relatively calm. Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility remains below 40 and the VIX fear index is stable around 20, both of which are historically low levels in the current situation. At the same time, U.S. Treasuries and a variety of Asian sovereign bonds attracted inflows, suggesting that the market has not yet fully shifted to risk-off mode. However, caution remains. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it could lead to a spike in oil prices; If the situation escalates further, or if the United States directly intervenes militarily, global risk assets could suffer even more. Ironically, some argue that these risks themselves could be structurally positive for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently only about a 6% retracement from its all-time high, and recent moves reinforce the idea that Bitcoin adoption is being driven by a combination of macro disruptions, rising sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical instability."