In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) is at 1BTC = 108,600 dollars, down 0.89% compared to the previous day.
BTC/USD daily chart
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May in the United States, released by the Labor Statistics Bureau of the U.S. Department of Labor on the 11th, fell short of market expectations, causing the dollar to decline in the New York foreign exchange market. With inflation slowing, expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FRB) are increasing, which could serve as a supportive factor for risk assets such as stocks and coins.
In the CPI statistics for May, the growth of the core index excluding food and energy prices fell short of market expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year. In response to this result, the U.S. Treasury market rose, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, decreased by 7 basis points to 3.95%. Yields have declined across all maturities, and there is a growing view in the market that the Fed will implement multiple rate cuts within the year.
The recent rise in Bitcoin is also attributed to geopolitical factors. U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday via his social media platform "Truth Social" that a trade agreement with China has reached an agreement and is now awaiting final approval from President Xi Jinping.
This agreement is said to include the repeal of some export tariffs, and the commerce authorities of both countries are also confirming the details.
The easing of trade friction between the U.S. and China is being evaluated in the market as a factor that leads to a reduction in global economic uncertainty and an increase in the willingness to invest in risk assets.
In addition, Elon Musk, who had been in a feud with President Trump due to his violent exchanges, admitted that he had made excessive remarks. Uncertainty in the stock market such as Tesla stock and systemic risk in Elon Musk's business have receded.
OTC inventories decline significantly
Market analysis suggests that severe supply constraints may be a major factor driving price increases.
Since early 2025, the amount of Bitcoin held in centralized exchanges has decreased by 14%, dropping to just 2.5 million BTC. This is the lowest level since August 2022. As investors withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges to hold it for the long term and move it to cold storage, the amount of Bitcoin available for sale in the market has sharply decreased.
A similar phenomenon is occurring at OTC (over-the-counter) desks that facilitate large transactions. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin balance of OTC addresses related to miners has decreased by 19% since January and currently stands at only 134,252 BTC, marking a record low.
The OTC desk maintains a certain level of inventory to smoothly handle large transactions, such as those from institutional investors, but this depletion of inventory indicates a sharp increase in large demand and a worsening supply shortage.
Changes in the futures market
Typically, when the price of Bitcoin rises, the funding rate for futures trading is positive, indicating a dominance of long positions. However, despite the price increase, there is currently a negative funding rate, which indicates an unusual situation where short positions are dominant.
This phenomenon marks the fourth occurrence in this cycle. The past three instances have all led to significant price increases, and even when the funding rate turned negative between June 6 and 8, Bitcoin surged from $104,000 to $110,000. This indicates that despite the dominance of short-selling traders, the spot market is absorbing selling pressure, reflecting the strength of potential buying demand.
As futures trading positions reach an all-time high, the market is in an extremely tense state. If a forced liquidation of short positions (short squeeze) occurs, it could create a feedback loop that further drives up prices, increasing the likelihood of an explosive rise.
The Bitcoin market appears calm on the surface, but there are indications that this tranquility carries significant meaning. The activity of individual investors has stagnated, and trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since the start of the 2023 cycle.
However, due to the decrease in liquidity supply, the price increase is supported not by the enthusiastic sentiment of investors or large transactions, but by the actual spot demand and the widening divergence of leveraged trading.
There is a view that forced liquidation in derivative trading and sudden price fluctuations could trigger a significant rise under supply constraints.
You can find the list of market reports published in the past here.
[Job Posting]
The largest domestic cryptocurrency media CoinPost is recruiting new personnel due to business expansion. (Full-time employment available)
The editorial team is currently looking for full-time and outsourced content creators, SEO specialists, and web directors. We look forward to your applications!
For more details, click here pic.twitter.com/QPUCR0YxvJ
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
CPI passing did not lead to a new high for Bitcoin, and the decrease in OTC inventory may continue to create supply constraints.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) is at 1BTC = 108,600 dollars, down 0.89% compared to the previous day.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May in the United States, released by the Labor Statistics Bureau of the U.S. Department of Labor on the 11th, fell short of market expectations, causing the dollar to decline in the New York foreign exchange market. With inflation slowing, expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FRB) are increasing, which could serve as a supportive factor for risk assets such as stocks and coins.
In the CPI statistics for May, the growth of the core index excluding food and energy prices fell short of market expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year. In response to this result, the U.S. Treasury market rose, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, decreased by 7 basis points to 3.95%. Yields have declined across all maturities, and there is a growing view in the market that the Fed will implement multiple rate cuts within the year.
The recent rise in Bitcoin is also attributed to geopolitical factors. U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday via his social media platform "Truth Social" that a trade agreement with China has reached an agreement and is now awaiting final approval from President Xi Jinping.
This agreement is said to include the repeal of some export tariffs, and the commerce authorities of both countries are also confirming the details.
The easing of trade friction between the U.S. and China is being evaluated in the market as a factor that leads to a reduction in global economic uncertainty and an increase in the willingness to invest in risk assets.
In addition, Elon Musk, who had been in a feud with President Trump due to his violent exchanges, admitted that he had made excessive remarks. Uncertainty in the stock market such as Tesla stock and systemic risk in Elon Musk's business have receded.
OTC inventories decline significantly
Market analysis suggests that severe supply constraints may be a major factor driving price increases.
Since early 2025, the amount of Bitcoin held in centralized exchanges has decreased by 14%, dropping to just 2.5 million BTC. This is the lowest level since August 2022. As investors withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges to hold it for the long term and move it to cold storage, the amount of Bitcoin available for sale in the market has sharply decreased.
The OTC desk maintains a certain level of inventory to smoothly handle large transactions, such as those from institutional investors, but this depletion of inventory indicates a sharp increase in large demand and a worsening supply shortage.
Changes in the futures market
Typically, when the price of Bitcoin rises, the funding rate for futures trading is positive, indicating a dominance of long positions. However, despite the price increase, there is currently a negative funding rate, which indicates an unusual situation where short positions are dominant.
This phenomenon marks the fourth occurrence in this cycle. The past three instances have all led to significant price increases, and even when the funding rate turned negative between June 6 and 8, Bitcoin surged from $104,000 to $110,000. This indicates that despite the dominance of short-selling traders, the spot market is absorbing selling pressure, reflecting the strength of potential buying demand.
As futures trading positions reach an all-time high, the market is in an extremely tense state. If a forced liquidation of short positions (short squeeze) occurs, it could create a feedback loop that further drives up prices, increasing the likelihood of an explosive rise.
The Bitcoin market appears calm on the surface, but there are indications that this tranquility carries significant meaning. The activity of individual investors has stagnated, and trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since the start of the 2023 cycle.
However, due to the decrease in liquidity supply, the price increase is supported not by the enthusiastic sentiment of investors or large transactions, but by the actual spot demand and the widening divergence of leveraged trading.
There is a view that forced liquidation in derivative trading and sudden price fluctuations could trigger a significant rise under supply constraints.
Bitcoin (BTC) News and Price
BTC Exchange Comparison | Fees, Spreads, Accumulation, Lending Coins
a.t3-set { text-decoration: none !important; }
You can find the list of market reports published in the past here.