The cryptocurrency asset management company Bitwise announced a weekly report on the market on the 10th. They stated that there is a possibility that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to over $200,000 (approximately 29 million yen) by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin is highly scarce and a decentralized asset with no counterparty risk, making it a potential alternative "portfolio insurance" against national debt defaults. Additionally, it has made the following predictions about future prices.
The quantitative model estimates the hypothetical "fair value" of Bitcoin at approximately $230,000, considering the current possibility of national debt default.
This estimate aligns with the increasing scarcity of Bitcoin, and it is expected that Bitcoin will rise towards $200,000 by the end of the year.
As background, Bitwise predicts that the U.S. debt situation is likely to continue to worsen over the next few years. This is also noted as the official forecast of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Net interest expenditure (the total interest paid by the government minus the interest income) is expected to triple to about $3 trillion (approximately 430 trillion yen) by 2030, and it is argued that the tax reduction measures proposed by the Trump administration are likely to worsen this situation.
Regarding the supply trends over the past week, it has been pointed out that whales (large investors) holding over 1,000 BTC have been withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges, indicating a decrease in selling pressure from whales. Specifically, the whales withdrew 390,632 BTC from exchanges last week.
Moreover, according to the latest data from Glassnode, it was also stated that the overall trend of decrease in Bitcoin reserves held by exchanges continues. Currently, it stands at 2.91 million BTC, accounting for approximately 14.6% of the total circulating supply, which is a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous week.
On the 11th, Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, known for its Bitcoin financial strategies, predicted that the bearish market for Bitcoin will not return and that it will reach 1 million dollars (approximately 140 million yen) per BTC in the future.
Is risk preference on the rise?
Bitwise is also analyzing altcoins. Last week, it stated that the performance variability among cryptocurrencies remains low, indicating that altcoins are maintaining a correlation with Bitcoin's performance.
About 15% of the altcoins tracked by Bitwise outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, Ethereum's performance was lower than that of Bitcoin.
Source: Bitwise
Bitwise points out that the rise in the outperformance of altcoins tends to indicate an increase in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, the fact that some altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin suggests that the current risk appetite is bullish.
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"Bitcoin may exceed 200,000 Dollars by the end of the year" Bitwise forecast
The cryptocurrency asset management company Bitwise announced a weekly report on the market on the 10th. They stated that there is a possibility that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to over $200,000 (approximately 29 million yen) by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin is highly scarce and a decentralized asset with no counterparty risk, making it a potential alternative "portfolio insurance" against national debt defaults. Additionally, it has made the following predictions about future prices.
The quantitative model estimates the hypothetical "fair value" of Bitcoin at approximately $230,000, considering the current possibility of national debt default.
This estimate aligns with the increasing scarcity of Bitcoin, and it is expected that Bitcoin will rise towards $200,000 by the end of the year.
As background, Bitwise predicts that the U.S. debt situation is likely to continue to worsen over the next few years. This is also noted as the official forecast of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Net interest expenditure (the total interest paid by the government minus the interest income) is expected to triple to about $3 trillion (approximately 430 trillion yen) by 2030, and it is argued that the tax reduction measures proposed by the Trump administration are likely to worsen this situation.
Regarding the supply trends over the past week, it has been pointed out that whales (large investors) holding over 1,000 BTC have been withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges, indicating a decrease in selling pressure from whales. Specifically, the whales withdrew 390,632 BTC from exchanges last week.
Moreover, according to the latest data from Glassnode, it was also stated that the overall trend of decrease in Bitcoin reserves held by exchanges continues. Currently, it stands at 2.91 million BTC, accounting for approximately 14.6% of the total circulating supply, which is a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous week.
On the 11th, Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, known for its Bitcoin financial strategies, predicted that the bearish market for Bitcoin will not return and that it will reach 1 million dollars (approximately 140 million yen) per BTC in the future.
Is risk preference on the rise?
Bitwise is also analyzing altcoins. Last week, it stated that the performance variability among cryptocurrencies remains low, indicating that altcoins are maintaining a correlation with Bitcoin's performance.
About 15% of the altcoins tracked by Bitwise outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, Ethereum's performance was lower than that of Bitcoin.
Bitwise points out that the rise in the outperformance of altcoins tends to indicate an increase in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, the fact that some altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin suggests that the current risk appetite is bullish.