The United States has a tradition of summer protests, but this year seems to have come particularly early.
(Golden Finance Note: The civil rights movement from 1954 to 1968, the anti-Vietnam War protests in the late 1960s, and the Tea Party movement in 2009 all occurred in the summer. Some analyses suggest that this is related to the hot weather, which can easily ignite emotions, and the holidays.)
On June 6, 2025, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested more than 40 illegal immigrants in Los Angeles, a move that could be seen as the beginning of the Los Angeles riots. Trump sent 2,000 National Guard soldiers to the city, sparking outrage among Democrats. Then, as the situation unfolded, Trump ordered 2,000 Army soldiers and 700 Marines to be sent to the city. Currently, the mayor of Los Angeles has declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles and imposed a curfew in downtown Los Angeles.
Why did the riots break out in Los Angeles? Did immigrants really take jobs away from Americans? What hardline measures did Trump adopt? What impact do the riots have on the U.S. economy? Will it affect cryptocurrency markets?
I. Review of the Los Angeles Riots
1. Why did the riots break out in Los Angeles?
The recent unrest actually stems from the "largest scale deportation action" in American history implemented by Trump, and Los Angeles has more than a third of its population born outside the United States, making it a key target of this action. Areas like Westlake and Paramount in Los Angeles have over 82% of their population being Hispanic.
In early May, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced the arrest of 239 undocumented immigrants during a week-long operation in the Los Angeles area, but the overall number of arrests and deportations fell short of Trump's expectations. The following month, the White House raised the target for ICE officials to arrest at least 3,000 people per day. Authorities gradually expanded the search area to include workplaces such as restaurants and retail stores.
What happened during the riot?
On Sunday, vehicles were set on fire, and police accused protesters of using incendiary devices against mounted patrols. Meanwhile, officers in riot gear used flashbangs and pepper spray to subdue the crowd. The unrest temporarily paralyzed Highway 101, and reports of looting incidents emerged.
The federal building in the city center has become the focus due to allegations of detaining ICE prisoners. ICE accused that on Saturday, "more than 1,000 rioters" surrounded and attacked the building.
A Home Depot store located about 20 miles (32 kilometers) south of downtown Los Angeles in Paramount (Paramount) has become another important protest site. Protesters gathered on Saturday were attacked with tear gas and flashbangs, and on Sunday, armed National Guard troops were stationed in a nearby commercial area.
The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) stated that 29 people were arrested on Saturday. Another 27 people were arrested on Sunday.
San Francisco police said that the riot on Sunday resulted in about 60 arrests and three officers injured.
On Monday, protests continued as police fired stun grenades in an attempt to disperse the crowd. Later that day, the unrest gradually subsided, with both violent incidents and the number of people on the streets decreasing compared to the weekend.
( 3. Multiple parties respond
The Mayor of Los Angeles has declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles, imposing a curfew in downtown Los Angeles.
Trump said he would use all resources to quell the violence in Los Angeles. In a speech at Fort Bragg, Trump called the Los Angeles riots "an all-out assault on peace, public order and national sovereignty by a mob waving foreign flags" with the aim of continuing the "foreign invasion" of the United States. Trump said those who burned the U.S. flag should be sentenced to one year in prison. Mr. Trump said that if he had not deployed guards, Los Angeles would have been "burned down," and that the guards deployed to Los Angeles were protecting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and were preventing the invasion. Trump said that the governor of California and the mayor of Los Angeles are "incompetent" and that the Trump administration will "liberate Los Angeles." **
On the 10th local time, the U.S. Northern Command said that 700 Marines had arrived in the Los Angeles area. The U.S. Northern Command issued a statement on the 9th that about 700 Marines have completed mobilization and will "seamlessly dock" with the National Guard that has been deployed in the Los Angeles area of California to protect federal agencies and personnel in the Los Angeles area. CNN reported that sending an entire battalion of Marines to Los Angeles marks a significant escalation of the Trump administration's military display of force against protesters.
A recent poll released by the polling agency Yuguan on the 10th shows that nearly half of the American public does not support the Trump administration's decision to deploy Marines and the National Guard to the Los Angeles area in California. In a poll completed on the 10th, 47% of respondents opposed the deployment of Marines to support federal agencies in enforcement actions against illegal immigrants, while 34% expressed support. The proportions opposing and supporting the deployment of the National Guard to the Los Angeles area were 45% and 38%, respectively.
Some analyses suggest that Trump's quick response indicates that this is a struggle his administration is already prepared for and even eager to engage in.
The White House believes that law and order, along with proactive immigration enforcement, will help Trump secure victory. His actions will inspire his core supporters and may influence politically independent individuals who care about public safety.
Democrats say the administration's use of masked, military-equipped immigration officials to arrest civilians in restaurants and shops is inflammatory, and that the president's rush to deploy trained soldiers makes no sense.
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker said, "The president did this without being asked, breaking a tradition that has lasted for generations, and it will only exacerbate the situation and make things worse." "The occurrence of many peaceful protests is because the U.S. president arrested those participating in immigration hearings, making efforts to comply with the law, thereby creating chaos and confusion."
II. Do foreign immigrants really take away jobs from Americans?
The root cause of the recent unrest is the increasingly stringent immigration policies implemented by Trump.
On January 20, 2025, the Trump administration issued multiple executive orders related to immigration, focusing on border security, the withdrawal of humanitarian programs, enhanced scrutiny of visa applicants, and attempts to terminate birthright citizenship. In addition, several executive orders issued by Biden were revoked.
Are immigrants really detrimental to the economic development of the United States?
According to demographers, there are currently about 8.3 million undocumented immigrants working in the United States, accounting for about 5% of the total workforce. Economists warn that deporting all workers in these critical industries could lead to rising food prices and housing construction costs. The existing staffing shortages in nursing homes and home healthcare agencies will worsen, resulting in reduced services and increased costs.
According to a research report from the U.S. Congress, in fact, current economic analyses can hardly prove that foreign immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans, and the economic impact of foreign immigrants is mostly positive for native residents and the overall economy.
Figure 1 shows that the foreign-born population has grown rapidly in recent decades, from less than 5% of the U.S. population in 1970 to 13% in 2013. Although immigrants make up more of the U.S. population today than at any time since World War II, the current share of the foreign-born population is about the same as it was in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, when about 15 percent of U.S. residents were born abroad.
Figure 1: Proportion of the U.S. population as a foreign-born population from 1850 to 2013
Has the surge in immigration since 1970 led to a slowdown in wage growth for homegrown workers? Academic research does not provide much support for this claim. Evidence suggests that when immigrants increase the supply of labor, firms increase investment to offset the decrease in capital per capita, thus preventing a long-term decline in average wages. In addition, immigrants are often not a perfect substitute for native workers in the U.S. labor market. This means that they will not compete for the same jobs, and there will be little downward pressure on the wages of homegrown workers. This may explain why the competition from new immigrants mainly affects early immigrants, whose wages have plummeted as a result of the surge in immigration. In contrast, the study found that immigrants have actually raised the average wage of native workers over the past few decades. **
Immigrants are pioneers of innovation and creativity in the U.S., with a disproportionate percentage of patent applications, tech graduates, and senior positions at top venture capital firms. According to a 2012 report by the U.S. National Science Council, in 2009, 27% of foreign students earned a master's degree in science and engineering. In 2011, 76 percent of the top 10 universities in the U.S. by patent production had at least one foreign-born author. Over the past 150 years, more than three-quarters of the U.S. economy's growth can be attributed to improved levels of education and research-driven innovation. In addition, the presence of migrants often creates opportunities for less skilled native workers, allowing them to do their jobs more professionally, thereby increasing their productivity.
Immigrants often also improve the financial situation of the government, as many immigrants pay more in taxes over their lifetime than they consume in government services. However, in states with a higher concentration of less-educated immigrants, native residents may face a greater tax burden because these immigrants pay less in taxes and are more likely to send their children to public schools.
Most empirical studies have shown that immigration has long-term benefits for natives' employment and wages, although some studies have shown that these gains have come at the cost of short-term losses from lower wages and higher unemployment. Standard economic theory suggests that while the increase in labor supply due to immigration may initially depress wages, over time firms increase investment to restore capital per capita, thereby restoring wages. A steady increase in the capital-labor ratio prevents a decline in the average productivity of workers and thus a long-term decline in their average wages.
Figure 2 shows the trend of the capital-labor ratio before 1980 and infers the following decades - a period of accelerated immigration in the United States. Consistent with the theory, after 1980, the actual capital-labor ratio did not significantly or permanently deviate from this trend.
Figure 2: U.S. Log Capital-Labor Ratio from 1948 to 2013
Table 1 shows that immigration has primarily increased the supply of low-skilled and high-skilled workers.
Table 1. Distribution of Educational Attainment for the Population Aged 25 and Over in 2012
Table 2 presents the results of two academic analyses of the impact of immigration on wages over the past few decades. The two studies took into account the investment response of firms and the incomplete substitution between migrant and indigenous workers. They found that immigrants had a small but positive impact on the average wages of native workers, about half a percentage point. One of the studies showed a slight decline in wages for people without a high school or college degree, while another found only a positive increase in wages. In stark contrast, both studies found that early immigrants' wages fell by an average of 4 to 7 percent, mostly among the most and least educated populations.
Table 2. Estimated Impact of Immigration on Long-Term Wages
In summary, immigrants are actually beneficial for the development of American society. Trump's continually tightening immigration policies may have counterproductive negative effects on the United States.
3. Trump's immigration policy is affecting the US economy alongside tariff policy.
The research by the Brookings Institution indicates:
**In the short term, a sharp reduction in net migration will dampen real GDP growth. This is because this reduction means a smaller workforce, which leads to fewer people producing goods and services. Specifically, if net migration falls from a significantly positive value in 2024 to -650,000 in 2025, the reduction in migration output will lead to a 0.2 percentage point reduction in GDP growth next year. Consistent with the slowdown in labor force growth, monthly job growth in 2025 is expected to be much lower than in 2024. Specifically, a reversal from positive to negative net migration would result in a reduction of nearly 100,000 monthly job growth.
In addition, a reduction in consumer spending due to a decrease in the number of immigrants will lead to a further reduction in GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points. Finally, even if the mass deportations implied in the propaganda are not reached, the implementation of aggressive deportation policies is likely to reduce spending on immigrants who remain in the United States, which will further reduce GDP growth. **If there are fewer net migrations in 2025, the economic impact will be even more negative.
Perhaps a total of 3 million people will be deported over the next four years, far lower than the deportation targets set forth in Trump's campaign rhetoric. A higher deportation rate would lead to more adverse macroeconomic consequences and disrupt the labor market, supply chains, and civil society.
In fact, it is not only immigration policy that is laying a mine for US economic growth, but also Trump's vacillating tariff policy is casting a shadow over the US economy.
According to the World Bank, the global economy will experience its slowest growth decade since the 60s of the 20th century as the impact of Trump's tariffs becomes felt, with a global economic growth rate of just 2.3% in 2025, 0.4 percentage points lower than the January forecast and 2.6% growth in 2027. The World Bank has also lowered its growth forecasts for the United States in 2025 and 2026 as tariffs swing, affecting investor confidence and private consumption.
Musk pointed out that Trump's tariffs will lead to a recession in the US economy in the second half of this year; OECD warns Trump tariffs will hurt U.S. economic growth; Bank of America analysts pointed out that the negative impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar is more significant; Hedge fund predator Steve Cohen believes the probability of a U.S. recession is about 45%......
Deutsche Bank even warned that the negative impact of immigration policies on the U.S. economy is greater than that of Trump's tariff stick.
4. How will the future of cryptocurrency trends unfold?
The Los Angeles riots are still ongoing. Currently, we can view them as a short-lived outbreak event, or we can see them as an appetizer for larger-scale riots in the future.
However, according to foreign media reports, the Los Angeles protesters have organized a "No Kings" event, which will be held on June 14 at the same time as a military parade to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the US Army. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the current Los Angeles riots will continue to escalate in the coming days.
In the short term, market panic may lead to temporary selling pressure. As risks to the U.S. economy intensify, investors need to reassess their holdings of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. If U.S. social instability intensifies and further impacts economic growth, investors will gravitate towards assets with more stable value, and cryptocurrencies may be exposed to increased price volatility.
However, in the long term, influenced by the continuous improvement of cryptocurrency regulatory policies, the demonstration of BTC's "digital gold" attributes due to "de-dollarization", and the increasing allocation by countries and institutions, the cryptocurrency market trend remains positive. This may further increase the demand for decentralized assets among the general public.
Source: Golden Finance, U.S. Congress, BBC, RFI, Brookings Institution, Seacoastonline, etc.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
The Los Angeles riots continue to escalate; what is their impact on the US economy and the crypto market?
Deng Tong, Golden Finance
The United States has a tradition of summer protests, but this year seems to have come particularly early.
(Golden Finance Note: The civil rights movement from 1954 to 1968, the anti-Vietnam War protests in the late 1960s, and the Tea Party movement in 2009 all occurred in the summer. Some analyses suggest that this is related to the hot weather, which can easily ignite emotions, and the holidays.)
On June 6, 2025, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested more than 40 illegal immigrants in Los Angeles, a move that could be seen as the beginning of the Los Angeles riots. Trump sent 2,000 National Guard soldiers to the city, sparking outrage among Democrats. Then, as the situation unfolded, Trump ordered 2,000 Army soldiers and 700 Marines to be sent to the city. Currently, the mayor of Los Angeles has declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles and imposed a curfew in downtown Los Angeles.
Why did the riots break out in Los Angeles? Did immigrants really take jobs away from Americans? What hardline measures did Trump adopt? What impact do the riots have on the U.S. economy? Will it affect cryptocurrency markets?
I. Review of the Los Angeles Riots
1. Why did the riots break out in Los Angeles?
The recent unrest actually stems from the "largest scale deportation action" in American history implemented by Trump, and Los Angeles has more than a third of its population born outside the United States, making it a key target of this action. Areas like Westlake and Paramount in Los Angeles have over 82% of their population being Hispanic.
In early May, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced the arrest of 239 undocumented immigrants during a week-long operation in the Los Angeles area, but the overall number of arrests and deportations fell short of Trump's expectations. The following month, the White House raised the target for ICE officials to arrest at least 3,000 people per day. Authorities gradually expanded the search area to include workplaces such as restaurants and retail stores.
What happened during the riot?
On Sunday, vehicles were set on fire, and police accused protesters of using incendiary devices against mounted patrols. Meanwhile, officers in riot gear used flashbangs and pepper spray to subdue the crowd. The unrest temporarily paralyzed Highway 101, and reports of looting incidents emerged.
The federal building in the city center has become the focus due to allegations of detaining ICE prisoners. ICE accused that on Saturday, "more than 1,000 rioters" surrounded and attacked the building.
A Home Depot store located about 20 miles (32 kilometers) south of downtown Los Angeles in Paramount (Paramount) has become another important protest site. Protesters gathered on Saturday were attacked with tear gas and flashbangs, and on Sunday, armed National Guard troops were stationed in a nearby commercial area.
The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) stated that 29 people were arrested on Saturday. Another 27 people were arrested on Sunday.
San Francisco police said that the riot on Sunday resulted in about 60 arrests and three officers injured.
On Monday, protests continued as police fired stun grenades in an attempt to disperse the crowd. Later that day, the unrest gradually subsided, with both violent incidents and the number of people on the streets decreasing compared to the weekend.
( 3. Multiple parties respond
The Mayor of Los Angeles has declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles, imposing a curfew in downtown Los Angeles.
Trump said he would use all resources to quell the violence in Los Angeles. In a speech at Fort Bragg, Trump called the Los Angeles riots "an all-out assault on peace, public order and national sovereignty by a mob waving foreign flags" with the aim of continuing the "foreign invasion" of the United States. Trump said those who burned the U.S. flag should be sentenced to one year in prison. Mr. Trump said that if he had not deployed guards, Los Angeles would have been "burned down," and that the guards deployed to Los Angeles were protecting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and were preventing the invasion. Trump said that the governor of California and the mayor of Los Angeles are "incompetent" and that the Trump administration will "liberate Los Angeles." **
On the 10th local time, the U.S. Northern Command said that 700 Marines had arrived in the Los Angeles area. The U.S. Northern Command issued a statement on the 9th that about 700 Marines have completed mobilization and will "seamlessly dock" with the National Guard that has been deployed in the Los Angeles area of California to protect federal agencies and personnel in the Los Angeles area. CNN reported that sending an entire battalion of Marines to Los Angeles marks a significant escalation of the Trump administration's military display of force against protesters.
A recent poll released by the polling agency Yuguan on the 10th shows that nearly half of the American public does not support the Trump administration's decision to deploy Marines and the National Guard to the Los Angeles area in California. In a poll completed on the 10th, 47% of respondents opposed the deployment of Marines to support federal agencies in enforcement actions against illegal immigrants, while 34% expressed support. The proportions opposing and supporting the deployment of the National Guard to the Los Angeles area were 45% and 38%, respectively.
Some analyses suggest that Trump's quick response indicates that this is a struggle his administration is already prepared for and even eager to engage in.
The White House believes that law and order, along with proactive immigration enforcement, will help Trump secure victory. His actions will inspire his core supporters and may influence politically independent individuals who care about public safety.
Democrats say the administration's use of masked, military-equipped immigration officials to arrest civilians in restaurants and shops is inflammatory, and that the president's rush to deploy trained soldiers makes no sense.
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker said, "The president did this without being asked, breaking a tradition that has lasted for generations, and it will only exacerbate the situation and make things worse." "The occurrence of many peaceful protests is because the U.S. president arrested those participating in immigration hearings, making efforts to comply with the law, thereby creating chaos and confusion."
II. Do foreign immigrants really take away jobs from Americans?
The root cause of the recent unrest is the increasingly stringent immigration policies implemented by Trump.
On January 20, 2025, the Trump administration issued multiple executive orders related to immigration, focusing on border security, the withdrawal of humanitarian programs, enhanced scrutiny of visa applicants, and attempts to terminate birthright citizenship. In addition, several executive orders issued by Biden were revoked.
Are immigrants really detrimental to the economic development of the United States?
According to demographers, there are currently about 8.3 million undocumented immigrants working in the United States, accounting for about 5% of the total workforce. Economists warn that deporting all workers in these critical industries could lead to rising food prices and housing construction costs. The existing staffing shortages in nursing homes and home healthcare agencies will worsen, resulting in reduced services and increased costs.
According to a research report from the U.S. Congress, in fact, current economic analyses can hardly prove that foreign immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans, and the economic impact of foreign immigrants is mostly positive for native residents and the overall economy.
Figure 1 shows that the foreign-born population has grown rapidly in recent decades, from less than 5% of the U.S. population in 1970 to 13% in 2013. Although immigrants make up more of the U.S. population today than at any time since World War II, the current share of the foreign-born population is about the same as it was in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, when about 15 percent of U.S. residents were born abroad.
Figure 1: Proportion of the U.S. population as a foreign-born population from 1850 to 2013
! [3ZE33nMirqdoNGpIbU4KMfH2GUahSa3vRhREryds.jpeg])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-b6678468f7427bada4363188c17a7256 "7375548"###
Has the surge in immigration since 1970 led to a slowdown in wage growth for homegrown workers? Academic research does not provide much support for this claim. Evidence suggests that when immigrants increase the supply of labor, firms increase investment to offset the decrease in capital per capita, thus preventing a long-term decline in average wages. In addition, immigrants are often not a perfect substitute for native workers in the U.S. labor market. This means that they will not compete for the same jobs, and there will be little downward pressure on the wages of homegrown workers. This may explain why the competition from new immigrants mainly affects early immigrants, whose wages have plummeted as a result of the surge in immigration. In contrast, the study found that immigrants have actually raised the average wage of native workers over the past few decades. **
Immigrants are pioneers of innovation and creativity in the U.S., with a disproportionate percentage of patent applications, tech graduates, and senior positions at top venture capital firms. According to a 2012 report by the U.S. National Science Council, in 2009, 27% of foreign students earned a master's degree in science and engineering. In 2011, 76 percent of the top 10 universities in the U.S. by patent production had at least one foreign-born author. Over the past 150 years, more than three-quarters of the U.S. economy's growth can be attributed to improved levels of education and research-driven innovation. In addition, the presence of migrants often creates opportunities for less skilled native workers, allowing them to do their jobs more professionally, thereby increasing their productivity.
Immigrants often also improve the financial situation of the government, as many immigrants pay more in taxes over their lifetime than they consume in government services. However, in states with a higher concentration of less-educated immigrants, native residents may face a greater tax burden because these immigrants pay less in taxes and are more likely to send their children to public schools.
Most empirical studies have shown that immigration has long-term benefits for natives' employment and wages, although some studies have shown that these gains have come at the cost of short-term losses from lower wages and higher unemployment. Standard economic theory suggests that while the increase in labor supply due to immigration may initially depress wages, over time firms increase investment to restore capital per capita, thereby restoring wages. A steady increase in the capital-labor ratio prevents a decline in the average productivity of workers and thus a long-term decline in their average wages.
Figure 2 shows the trend of the capital-labor ratio before 1980 and infers the following decades - a period of accelerated immigration in the United States. Consistent with the theory, after 1980, the actual capital-labor ratio did not significantly or permanently deviate from this trend.
Figure 2: U.S. Log Capital-Labor Ratio from 1948 to 2013
Table 1 shows that immigration has primarily increased the supply of low-skilled and high-skilled workers.
Table 1. Distribution of Educational Attainment for the Population Aged 25 and Over in 2012
! GMiPxe1gxETDjkvZigV6yIfg1A3qtR26WiGVvWTH.jpeg
Table 2 presents the results of two academic analyses of the impact of immigration on wages over the past few decades. The two studies took into account the investment response of firms and the incomplete substitution between migrant and indigenous workers. They found that immigrants had a small but positive impact on the average wages of native workers, about half a percentage point. One of the studies showed a slight decline in wages for people without a high school or college degree, while another found only a positive increase in wages. In stark contrast, both studies found that early immigrants' wages fell by an average of 4 to 7 percent, mostly among the most and least educated populations.
Table 2. Estimated Impact of Immigration on Long-Term Wages
! m0vdZQ0fOnw3wfxaw6hM2HuplmtVi76n86NlK7Ep.jpeg
In summary, immigrants are actually beneficial for the development of American society. Trump's continually tightening immigration policies may have counterproductive negative effects on the United States.
3. Trump's immigration policy is affecting the US economy alongside tariff policy.
The research by the Brookings Institution indicates:
**In the short term, a sharp reduction in net migration will dampen real GDP growth. This is because this reduction means a smaller workforce, which leads to fewer people producing goods and services. Specifically, if net migration falls from a significantly positive value in 2024 to -650,000 in 2025, the reduction in migration output will lead to a 0.2 percentage point reduction in GDP growth next year. Consistent with the slowdown in labor force growth, monthly job growth in 2025 is expected to be much lower than in 2024. Specifically, a reversal from positive to negative net migration would result in a reduction of nearly 100,000 monthly job growth.
In addition, a reduction in consumer spending due to a decrease in the number of immigrants will lead to a further reduction in GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points. Finally, even if the mass deportations implied in the propaganda are not reached, the implementation of aggressive deportation policies is likely to reduce spending on immigrants who remain in the United States, which will further reduce GDP growth. **If there are fewer net migrations in 2025, the economic impact will be even more negative.
Perhaps a total of 3 million people will be deported over the next four years, far lower than the deportation targets set forth in Trump's campaign rhetoric. A higher deportation rate would lead to more adverse macroeconomic consequences and disrupt the labor market, supply chains, and civil society.
In fact, it is not only immigration policy that is laying a mine for US economic growth, but also Trump's vacillating tariff policy is casting a shadow over the US economy.
According to the World Bank, the global economy will experience its slowest growth decade since the 60s of the 20th century as the impact of Trump's tariffs becomes felt, with a global economic growth rate of just 2.3% in 2025, 0.4 percentage points lower than the January forecast and 2.6% growth in 2027. The World Bank has also lowered its growth forecasts for the United States in 2025 and 2026 as tariffs swing, affecting investor confidence and private consumption.
Musk pointed out that Trump's tariffs will lead to a recession in the US economy in the second half of this year; OECD warns Trump tariffs will hurt U.S. economic growth; Bank of America analysts pointed out that the negative impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar is more significant; Hedge fund predator Steve Cohen believes the probability of a U.S. recession is about 45%......
Deutsche Bank even warned that the negative impact of immigration policies on the U.S. economy is greater than that of Trump's tariff stick.
4. How will the future of cryptocurrency trends unfold?
The Los Angeles riots are still ongoing. Currently, we can view them as a short-lived outbreak event, or we can see them as an appetizer for larger-scale riots in the future.
However, according to foreign media reports, the Los Angeles protesters have organized a "No Kings" event, which will be held on June 14 at the same time as a military parade to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the US Army. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the current Los Angeles riots will continue to escalate in the coming days.
In the short term, market panic may lead to temporary selling pressure. As risks to the U.S. economy intensify, investors need to reassess their holdings of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. If U.S. social instability intensifies and further impacts economic growth, investors will gravitate towards assets with more stable value, and cryptocurrencies may be exposed to increased price volatility.
However, in the long term, influenced by the continuous improvement of cryptocurrency regulatory policies, the demonstration of BTC's "digital gold" attributes due to "de-dollarization", and the increasing allocation by countries and institutions, the cryptocurrency market trend remains positive. This may further increase the demand for decentralized assets among the general public.
Source: Golden Finance, U.S. Congress, BBC, RFI, Brookings Institution, Seacoastonline, etc.