FOMC Meeting Outlook: Will the Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts Be Delayed Further?
In mid-June, the market's focus is on the interest rate decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the United States.
According to CME FedWatch prediction data, the market generally expects that the decision at the FOMC meeting on June 18 will keep interest rates unchanged (current rates are 425 to 450 ). Among them, the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 97.4%.
However, the expectations for the observation on September 25 are quite different. It is predicted that the probability of a rate cut will be 60.8%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate has dropped to 39.2%.
Specifically, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 51.8%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a 75 basis point cut is only 0.2%.
Looking at the observations from December 10 this year, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is expected to be 30.6%, the probability of a 50 basis point cut is as high as 39.3%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 19.3%, and the probability of a 100 basis point and 125 basis point cut is 2.6% and 0.1%, respectively.
In summary, the market generally expects a high probability of interest rate cuts at the meetings in September and December, which may decide to cut rates at least once or twice, with a maximum cut of 50 basis points.
However, I would like to remind everyone that, although the market is relatively optimistic about the expectation of interest rate cuts by the end of this year, factors such as U.S. tariff policies, the employment market situation, core inflation data, and the global economic environment may all significantly influence the Federal Reserve's final decision.
Therefore, investors should closely monitor relevant economic data and policy signals to timely adjust their investment strategies to cope with various uncertainties.
What does everyone think? How many times do you think interest rates will be cut by the end of the year, and what will be the maximum reduction? Feel free to share your views in the comments!
#FOMC # The Federal Reserve (FED) #interest rate cut expectations
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FOMC Meeting Outlook: Will the Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts Be Delayed Further?
In mid-June, the market's focus is on the interest rate decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the United States.
According to CME FedWatch prediction data, the market generally expects that the decision at the FOMC meeting on June 18 will keep interest rates unchanged (current rates are 425 to 450 ). Among them, the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 97.4%.
However, the expectations for the observation on September 25 are quite different. It is predicted that the probability of a rate cut will be 60.8%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate has dropped to 39.2%.
Specifically, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 51.8%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a 75 basis point cut is only 0.2%.
Looking at the observations from December 10 this year, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is expected to be 30.6%, the probability of a 50 basis point cut is as high as 39.3%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 19.3%, and the probability of a 100 basis point and 125 basis point cut is 2.6% and 0.1%, respectively.
In summary, the market generally expects a high probability of interest rate cuts at the meetings in September and December, which may decide to cut rates at least once or twice, with a maximum cut of 50 basis points.
However, I would like to remind everyone that, although the market is relatively optimistic about the expectation of interest rate cuts by the end of this year, factors such as U.S. tariff policies, the employment market situation, core inflation data, and the global economic environment may all significantly influence the Federal Reserve's final decision.
Therefore, investors should closely monitor relevant economic data and policy signals to timely adjust their investment strategies to cope with various uncertainties.
What does everyone think? How many times do you think interest rates will be cut by the end of the year, and what will be the maximum reduction? Feel free to share your views in the comments!
#FOMC # The Federal Reserve (FED) #interest rate cut expectations