In the comments at the end of yesterday's article, there was a comment like this:
"What I am worried about is that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating at a high position, while other assets like Ethereum are still at the bottom. The four-year cycle seems unrelated to assets like Ethereum, but those assets also plummet slightly with a Bitcoin pullback. The main reason is still the lack of innovation. However, according to the four-year cycle, this year is a bull market for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin turns bearish next year, other assets might drop to the bottom again. Additionally, if the US stock market really crashes, then assets other than Bitcoin will be a grim sight, which is hard to imagine..."
The reader thought of the overlap of three worst-case scenarios:
If Bitcoin turns bearish next year, it will drag down the crypto ecosystem that hasn't even entered a bull market yet (of course, this includes Ethereum).
If the US stock market really crashes, all crypto assets, including Bitcoin, may be doomed, which would be adding insult to injury.
Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are still at low levels, and if the two unfavorable factors mentioned above are added, the situation will be even more dire.
I think these three scenarios are indeed very likely to occur. The fact that these three scenarios can be combined suggests that investors are somewhat rational and will not be as excited as many people who casually shout "XX million by the end of the year."
In a more rational situation, the subsequent handling is not difficult, as I have shared in previous articles:
Before taking action, we try to think through all the worst-case scenarios as clearly as possible, and then plan how we will respond when these worst-case scenarios occur.
This is how I prepared it:
First of all, the trend of this round of market is hard to grasp, which means that the previous method of selling when Bitcoin or Ethereum is overvalued may not work well.
For example, if Bitcoin rises to $120,000, would you sell? I wouldn't sell because this price is just a pain; it's not really high, but if I sell and want to buy back, it would be very difficult. Similarly, if Ethereum reaches $5,000 or $6,000, would you sell? I also wouldn't sell, it's also a pain.
Unless Bitcoin and Ethereum rise to an absurdly high price, I probably won't sell them this round. But thinking about them reaching an absurdly high price, let's just be happy about it and not take it too seriously.
Since I will most likely hold onto them without selling during this round, it means that if the extreme scenario of the three situations mentioned above overlaps, I will probably hold onto them until the next bull market arrives.
However, holding onto them until the next bull market arrives is not an easy time. During this period, there will be no brilliant scenery, no thriving scenes, and most of the time will be a lonely struggle.
Since there will be a particularly difficult period coming up, investors should think carefully about whether the assets they hold, especially those with large positions (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), are valuable and have a future.
In my view, this is the essence and key to enduring hardships and seeing the light again.
If this point is unclear deep in the soul, and there is hesitation deep in the heart, then it is absolutely impossible to endure the coming period.
What does it mean to be "unclear in the depths of the soul, hesitant in the innermost heart"?
For example, hearing the wind is like feeling the rain, then wondering, is XXX not doing well?
For example, if an institution has reduced its holdings, then there are doubts, is XXX not doing well?
For example, if the whole network is discussing XXX, then you might wonder, is XXX not working anymore?
......
There are many more examples like this.
If any of the above examples make the holder doubt, it indicates that the holder did not buy these assets because he had confidence in them, nor because he understood them, but because he wanted to speculate. Then, during the process of inquiring everywhere, he heard that there was a ship that would reach the "Golden Mountain" tomorrow, and he jumped on board recklessly. As for whether this ship is taking him to the New World to mine for gold or to San Francisco to work as a laborer, he has no idea.
However, I think selling off the varieties and positions in hand due to doubt at this time is not necessarily a bad thing. Holding onto the varieties that make you feel secure or simply holding cash, allowing yourself to live a calm and peaceful life is already a good thing in itself.
The most feared situation is selling and then buying back again due to various hearsay reasons. This back-and-forth only makes things worse.
If investors have completely blocked out the doubts and hesitations mentioned above, and believe that the heavy positions they hold are valuable and have a future, then what remains to be done is simple:
Take another look at whether the funds occupied by these positions will not be used in the next few years?
If you need to use some money, then sell part of your position to ensure a good life.
If the money used is all spare money that has no impact on your life in the next few years, then just set this investment aside completely and ignore it, and persist through.
No wealth comes easily.
Unless there is green smoke rising from the ancestral grave, ordinary people must possess qualities that ordinary people do not have in order to obtain wealth that ordinary people cannot attain.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
How to cope with the market big dump?
In the comments at the end of yesterday's article, there was a comment like this:
"What I am worried about is that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating at a high position, while other assets like Ethereum are still at the bottom. The four-year cycle seems unrelated to assets like Ethereum, but those assets also plummet slightly with a Bitcoin pullback. The main reason is still the lack of innovation. However, according to the four-year cycle, this year is a bull market for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin turns bearish next year, other assets might drop to the bottom again. Additionally, if the US stock market really crashes, then assets other than Bitcoin will be a grim sight, which is hard to imagine..."
The reader thought of the overlap of three worst-case scenarios:
If Bitcoin turns bearish next year, it will drag down the crypto ecosystem that hasn't even entered a bull market yet (of course, this includes Ethereum).
If the US stock market really crashes, all crypto assets, including Bitcoin, may be doomed, which would be adding insult to injury.
Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are still at low levels, and if the two unfavorable factors mentioned above are added, the situation will be even more dire.
I think these three scenarios are indeed very likely to occur. The fact that these three scenarios can be combined suggests that investors are somewhat rational and will not be as excited as many people who casually shout "XX million by the end of the year."
In a more rational situation, the subsequent handling is not difficult, as I have shared in previous articles:
Before taking action, we try to think through all the worst-case scenarios as clearly as possible, and then plan how we will respond when these worst-case scenarios occur.
This is how I prepared it:
First of all, the trend of this round of market is hard to grasp, which means that the previous method of selling when Bitcoin or Ethereum is overvalued may not work well.
For example, if Bitcoin rises to $120,000, would you sell? I wouldn't sell because this price is just a pain; it's not really high, but if I sell and want to buy back, it would be very difficult. Similarly, if Ethereum reaches $5,000 or $6,000, would you sell? I also wouldn't sell, it's also a pain.
Unless Bitcoin and Ethereum rise to an absurdly high price, I probably won't sell them this round. But thinking about them reaching an absurdly high price, let's just be happy about it and not take it too seriously.
Since I will most likely hold onto them without selling during this round, it means that if the extreme scenario of the three situations mentioned above overlaps, I will probably hold onto them until the next bull market arrives.
However, holding onto them until the next bull market arrives is not an easy time. During this period, there will be no brilliant scenery, no thriving scenes, and most of the time will be a lonely struggle.
Since there will be a particularly difficult period coming up, investors should think carefully about whether the assets they hold, especially those with large positions (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), are valuable and have a future.
In my view, this is the essence and key to enduring hardships and seeing the light again.
If this point is unclear deep in the soul, and there is hesitation deep in the heart, then it is absolutely impossible to endure the coming period.
What does it mean to be "unclear in the depths of the soul, hesitant in the innermost heart"?
For example, hearing the wind is like feeling the rain, then wondering, is XXX not doing well?
For example, if an institution has reduced its holdings, then there are doubts, is XXX not doing well?
For example, if the whole network is discussing XXX, then you might wonder, is XXX not working anymore?
......
There are many more examples like this.
If any of the above examples make the holder doubt, it indicates that the holder did not buy these assets because he had confidence in them, nor because he understood them, but because he wanted to speculate. Then, during the process of inquiring everywhere, he heard that there was a ship that would reach the "Golden Mountain" tomorrow, and he jumped on board recklessly. As for whether this ship is taking him to the New World to mine for gold or to San Francisco to work as a laborer, he has no idea.
However, I think selling off the varieties and positions in hand due to doubt at this time is not necessarily a bad thing. Holding onto the varieties that make you feel secure or simply holding cash, allowing yourself to live a calm and peaceful life is already a good thing in itself.
The most feared situation is selling and then buying back again due to various hearsay reasons. This back-and-forth only makes things worse.
If investors have completely blocked out the doubts and hesitations mentioned above, and believe that the heavy positions they hold are valuable and have a future, then what remains to be done is simple:
Take another look at whether the funds occupied by these positions will not be used in the next few years?
If you need to use some money, then sell part of your position to ensure a good life.
If the money used is all spare money that has no impact on your life in the next few years, then just set this investment aside completely and ignore it, and persist through.
No wealth comes easily.
Unless there is green smoke rising from the ancestral grave, ordinary people must possess qualities that ordinary people do not have in order to obtain wealth that ordinary people cannot attain.
Where do these qualities come from?
It is honed through such hardships.