First Market | Panic sentiment has eased, BTC broke through $85,000 during the trading session.

Daily Summary: Altcoin Season Index Rebounds from Bottom, Bitcoin May Have Established Long-Term Bottom

According to data from Farside Investors, last Friday, there was a total net outflow of $1 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. Among them, Bitwise BITB had an outflow of $12.3 million, while ARK Invest ARKB had an inflow of $11.3 million. Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs experienced an outflow of $29.2 million, with Grayscale ETHE seeing an outflow of $26.1 million and Bitwise ETHW having an outflow of $3.1 million.

Opinion: Economic slowdown may become a major catalyst for digital assets like Bitcoin.

Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, has warned of a possible economic recession in the United States, stating that the recession may have already begun. In an interview with CNBC, Fink pointed out that escalating economic pressures and protectionist trade policies are the key drivers he believes are behind the slow contraction of the economy. While concerns about a recession typically unsettle traditional markets, cryptocurrency investors may have reason to cheer. The impending economic slowdown could prompt the Federal Reserve to change its course on monetary tightening, potentially triggering a new wave of liquidity. According to analysts, this scenario could become a major catalyst for digital assets like Bitcoin. Fink's comments follow similar predictions from major Wall Street firms including JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that a weak dollar could boost Bitcoin in the short term and may open the door for BTC to gain traction as an alternative global reserve asset in the long term.

Altcoin Season Index rebounds from the bottom

According to Coinmarketcap data, the market has slightly recovered, with the Altcoin Season Index rising from a recent low of 14 on the day of Trump's tariff announcement to 17, but it is still significantly lower than the March average of 32 and the February average of 43. The Altcoin Index has been declining continuously since it reached an annual high of 87 on December 4, 2024, with only 15 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies showing gains that exceeded Bitcoin's in the past 90 days. The top-performing altcoins over the past 90 days among the top 100 are AB, XCN, FORM, OM, and IP.

Analysis: Bitcoin may have once again established a long-term bottom.

Analyst James Van Straten recently released a chart analysis stating that the current market sell-off triggered by the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy began on April 3rd. Since then, the market has experienced continuous violent fluctuations, with panic spreading to both the stock and bond markets. Gold prices have surged to a historical high, while the dollar index (DXY) has fallen below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023. The S&P volatility index (VIX) has soared to its highest level since August last year, and the Bitcoin/VIX ratio has reached a long-term trend line. Historical data shows that this often indicates a bottom for Bitcoin prices. According to TradingView data, the current Bitcoin/VIX ratio has reached 1903 points, touching the long-term trend line. The last time this trend line was effective was during the market volatility triggered by the closure of yen arbitrage trades, when Bitcoin was bottoming around $49,000. In fact, this is the fourth time this ratio has touched the trend line to form a market bottom: the same pattern occurred during the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 and even earlier in August 2015, both times leading to a rally. If this trend line continues to provide reliable support, it may indicate that Bitcoin has once again established a long-term bottom.

Market Analysis: BTC Continues to Surge, OM Experiences Sudden Crash

Market Hotspots

The RWA sector project MANTRA (OM) plummeted by 90% in a short period, crashing from $6 to $0.5, resulting in a market cap evaporation of over $5.5 billion. Subsequently, the MANTRA team issued a statement claiming that this drop was triggered by irrational liquidations and was unrelated to the project itself, stating that it was not the team's doing.

Musk's concept Meme coin RFC's market value briefly surpassed 100 million USD. Retard Finder initially gained popularity through a post: when someone graffiti'd a Nazi symbol on a Tesla Cybertruck, it simply responded with "Found one" along with a screenshot of the incident. This concise and humorous style immediately sparked widespread sharing, establishing its tonal foundation of "exposing absurdity with minimal words." Despite active trading, it is important to recognize that its popularity largely relies on market sentiment and conceptual hype, with no real value or use case.

Market Trends

BTC continues to rise due to adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, briefly breaking through $85,000 during trading. It has now surpassed previous resistance levels and may be on the verge of further bullish momentum.

ETH followed the market to launch an attack, breaking through the $1,600 barrier during the session, but ETF data shows that its trading volume remains weak.

Altcoins are experiencing a general decline, affected by the flash crash of representative tokens, with the RWA sector leading the drop at 44%. The PayFi sector is rising against the trend, with ECOX, SVL, and CIRUS leading the gains within the sector.

Macro News: Panic Eases, Major U.S. Indices Rally

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices surged collectively, with the Nasdaq rising more than 2%, and both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices increasing by over 1%. Most large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. strengthened, with Apple soaring over 4% and Nvidia rising more than 3%.

Analysis suggests that key hints from Federal Reserve officials have eased panic in the U.S. stock market. Boston Federal Reserve President Collins stated that if financial markets experience turmoil, the Federal Reserve is "absolutely prepared" to use its policy tools to stabilize the market. On the same day, Wall Street's "big brother," JPMorgan CEO Dimon, also stated that if there is "chaos" in the U.S. Treasury market, it would prompt the Federal Reserve to intervene.

Author: Gate.io Researcher Orisi T. *This article only represents the author's views and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment carries risks, and decisions should be made cautiously. *This content is original and copyrighted by Gate.io. If you need to reproduce it, please indicate the author and source; otherwise, legal responsibility will be pursued.