Interpreting tonight's ADP data and Fed Chair's speech, uncovering the negative value of BTCKimchi Premium in South Korea!

Macro analysis:

Fed Policy and Economic Data: At 21:15 tonight, the November ADP Employment Change data will be released in the US, expected to increase by 150,000. In October, the ADP Employment Change increased by 233,000. If the data is higher than expected, it may rekindle optimism for non-farm payroll data on Friday and lead to lower gold and BTC prices.

At 23:00 tonight, the November ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the United States will be released, with an expected value of 55.5. This data will provide the latest dynamics of the U.S. service industry to the market.

At 02:45 this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be invited to be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by The New York Times. In his previous speech in November, Powell made hawkish remarks, stating that the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates, citing a strong job market and inflation rates still above the 2% target. If Powell once again sends a hawkish signal, it may stimulate a pump in the US dollar and trigger a new round of dumping in gold, putting pressure on the US stock market and the encryption market.

At 3:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions, providing the latest information on the U.S. economy to the market.

Tonight's series of economic data and Fed officials' speeches will have a significant impact on the US Dollar Index, Spot Gold, and the crypto market. We need to closely follow the Fed's policy direction and US economic data and market performance.

Today's main asset performance:

The short-term performance of the US dollar index is relatively stable. According to the latest data, the US dollar index is near 106.55, up 0.29% pump slightly. This reflects the confidence of global funds in the US financial market and the trend of buying assets denominated in US dollars. At the same time, the Chinese yuan, euro, and Japanese yen have all depreciated against the US dollar Exchange Rate, while the US dollar maintains its strong position. In addition, the market generally expects Trump's trade to cool down, but the continuous breakthrough of the offshore renminbi shows the complexity and uncertainty of the market.

Spot gold prices also remained stable, currently near $2640 per ounce. However, in November, the price of gold fell by 3.41%, marking the largest monthly decline in 14 months. This downward trend is related to the increase in global fund risk preference, and equity assets and the cryptocurrency market have become the new favorite of safe-haven funds. If tonight's US ADP employment data is higher than expected, it may further suppress the price of gold.

The BTC market has been relatively volatile recently, with the current price oscillating around $96,500. In November, BTC saw a surge of 37.42% with a volatility of 47.12%, and the trading volume expanded significantly. Some institutions believe that if BTC breaks through the $100,000 mark in the future, the market will gradually see ETH reaching new historical highs, a general rise in the market, and the identification of the main market trend.

Analysis of the negative premium of Korean kimchi:

Last night, after the martial law order issued by the South Korean President, some BTC on South Korean platforms experienced a negative premium of more than 30%, which is more of a regional event affecting a single market. This is mainly due to the sharp nosedive of the South Korean won, as well as the current insufficient on-platform balance, leading to a depletion of Liquidity and making it easier for such situations to occur.

There are actually quite a few similar cases. Everyone should remember the U-price decoupling in October 18th. The BTC priced in CNY skyrocketed, but the Fluctuation of some USD-priced top exchanges abroad was much smaller. Similar cases also occurred in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 18-19, where there were several times premiums.

BTC Analysis:

BTC four-hour chart, running on the rise trend line, the trend line is currently roughly coinciding with the short-term support and trend indicators. It is currently running around 94,000-94,500, if it is above, it tends to be bullish, if it falls below, it tends to be bearish. The market maker chip area is still below $91,000. The mid-term support is around 87,000 and 85,000, and the resistance above is around the recent high of $99,588 and the historical high.

The adjustment about the daily candlestick death cross was first proposed when it reached 99000. There have also been falls to around 90790 and 93580 during this period. This view has persisted for several days. It is just oscillating within a range at the moment, without breaking through, all of which are expected to pull back. However, the form of the pullback may not necessarily be a direct fall. Since November 29, the recent rebound high and the subsequent low have also moved down, which is also a form. Another way to complete the indicator signal is through oscillation repair.