XRP Price Prediction: Whale Sells $6 Billion in Three Weeks Becomes Key Pressure, $2.48 Becomes the Bull-Bear Lifeline

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has issued a warning that the weak market for Ripple (XRP) may not yet be over. Since reaching a high of $3.6 in mid-July, the token has pulled back over 20%. On-chain data shows that whale wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP have sold over 20 billion XRP (worth approximately $6 billion) in three weeks, and this downtrend is continuing. Coupled with the MVRV death cross technical unfavourable signal, XRP may dip to a key support level of $2.48 in the short term (potential drop of 15%). Although the proportion of long positions in mainstream CEX contracts has surged by 5% in two days, indicating some funds are buying the dip, if the $2.8 defense line is lost, market focus will shift to the on-chain dense cost area of $2.2 to $2.48 for a showdown between bulls and bears.

Whale selling pressure continues: 20 billion XRP reduced over three weeks On-chain data reveals the core reasons for XRP's recent downturn: the group of Whale addresses holding between 1 million and 1 billion XRP has significantly reduced their holdings over the past three weeks. Their total holdings have decreased from over 10 billion to 8 billion, equivalent to a dumping of about 2 billion XRP (valued at approximately $6 billion based on the average price). As of the time of writing, the dumping behavior of this group has not yet stopped, indicating that downward price pressure may continue.

Technical Unfavourable Information Resonance: MVRV Death Cross Reappears Martinez pointed out that the on-chain indicator MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value) for XRP has formed a "death cross," further reinforcing the bearish dominance. Historical experience shows that this signal last triggered at the end of March, after which XRP plummeted 30% in the short term (from $2.4 to $2.0). If the pattern repeats, investors may welcome a deeper pullback followed by a discount buying window.

Key support levels: $2.8 defense line and $2.48 life-or-death line For the current price level of $2.9, analysts provide a downward path forecast:

1. Short-term support: $2.8 (technical psychological level)
2. Core Defense Line: $2.48 (on-chain cost concentration area)
   • The on-chain charts show that the current costs for most coin holders are concentrated in the range of $2.2 to $2.48.
   • This area coincides with the technical support level of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA)
   • If the market sentiment worsens, it may accelerate to dip to 2.48 dollars after breaking below 2.8 dollars (potential decline of 15%)

Intensified Long-Short Battle: Institutions Buy the Dip vs. Whale Selling Notable bullish signals:

• Mainstream CEX Contract ** Smart Money Long Positions Ratio ** Increased from 64% to 69% in two days (Increase of 5%)
• This move reversed the decline of long positions from 79% in mid-July to 64% in early August.
• Indicates that some large funds believe the XRP has reached a temporary bottom.

Macroeconomic Correlation: Bitcoin Seeks Support Amidst Fluctuations The 20% pullback of XRP is in sync with the recent adjustment of Bitcoin (BTC). Although BTC has not yet confirmed a bottom above $110,000 amid macro uncertainty, some traders have begun to position for a buy the dip on XRP. If BTC can stabilize and rebound, it may provide collaborative support for XRP.

Conclusion: Whale Dumping Wave and Cost Zone Defense Battle The current XRP market presents a typical tug-of-war pattern between bulls and bears: on one hand, whales are continuously dumping, and the MVRV death cross creates dual pressure; on the other hand, institutional funds are entering the market to buy the dip, establishing a technical + psychological dual defense at the on-chain cost zone of $2.48. Investors need to pay close attention to:

1. Has the Whale address reduction slowed down?
2. Defense strength at the $2.8 mark
3. Can BTC stabilize and boost market sentiment? If the $2.48 support line is broken, it may trigger panic dumping; conversely, if it can hold firm, coupled with favourable fundamentals of the Ripple ecosystem (such as progress on bank licenses and clarification of the SEC lawsuit), it may brew strong rebound momentum.