BNB has been oscillating for weeks: Does the divergence signal open a turning point?

Binance Coin (BNB) seems to be "asleep" in a narrow zone for several weeks, with a fluctuation margin of less than 1% over the past month. But behind that silence are quiet movements gradually accumulating – small but significant signals.

From the increasing level of user interaction to signs indicating the quiet activity of whales, on-chain data is painting a picture of a silently accumulating phase before an explosion. If the right catalytic factors appear, BNB could completely break through the current sideways structure and enter a period of stronger volatility.

The number of active addresses has increased again

The number of active addresses for BNB has recorded a stable increase since the beginning of May, marking the return of user flow after a prolonged bleak period in March and April. Notably, on June 20, this metric soared to a record high of over 1.75 million active addresses per day – a milestone indicating that vitality is gradually returning.

The price of BNB and the number of active addresses are increasing | Source: GlassnodeThis is not just a symbolic number. The continuous increase in the number of active addresses is a sign of growing interest from the community, and is often a precursor to significant price fluctuations. In other words, the current accumulation phase does not seem to be a false lull, but is backed by a wave of real interaction – something that could create strong momentum for upcoming price action.

The mutation of the top 1% wallet group shows signs of silent accumulation.

Data from Glassnode has just recorded an unprecedented development throughout the year 2025: two consecutive and strong increases in the BNB supply ratio held by the top 1% wallet group. Specifically, these spikes occurred on June 21 and June 28 - and they are also the only significant increases this year.

! BNB price and spike in the TOP 1% of addresses | Source: GlassnodeWallets in the top 1% – which usually represent whales or large investment institutions – have been virtually unchanged over the past several months. Therefore, these unexpected movements may indicate OTC transactions (giao sàn) or portfolio restructuring. It is worth noting that this group of investors often does not "chase the wave" but chooses to quietly consolidate when the market is still moving sideways – in line with the current price of BNB, which is stuck in a narrow range of fluctuations.

The "top 1%" index reflects the total amount of BNB held by the largest addresses. When this index increases, it is often a sign that accumulation activity is taking place among major players – a potential signal for upcoming volatility if this trend continues.

The ascending triangle pattern and RSI divergence are forming.

On the daily time frame, BNB is still following a bullish triangle pattern – a technical pattern often signaling the potential for a breakout. Currently, the strongest horizontal resistance zone is in the range of $665 – $693, acting as the final barrier.

As of the time of writing, BNB is trading around $661, just a few USD away from the first resistance level at $665. If this price level is conquered, it will be a confirmation signal for a potential breakout.

However, it is noteworthy that the upper trend line of the triangle pattern is quite steep and wide, formed from many overlapping resistance and support zones. This means that BNB will need a strong enough momentum, surpassing a single signal, to establish a new trend.

Daily BNB/USDT Chart | Source: TradingViewAnd here is the point to note: From April 7 to June 22, the price of BNB continuously created higher lows, while the RSI index created lower lows – a typical bullish divergence, often indicating that selling pressure is weakening even though the price remains sideways. Currently, the RSI has begun to reverse upwards, further reinforcing the validity of the triangle pattern and increasing the likelihood of a breakout.

If market sentiment continues to maintain optimism, and the level of participation from users remains positive, BNB could completely aim for important milestones such as $686, $696, and even the long-term peak at $733.

However, all of the above expectations revolve around a key price point: $635. If BNB loses this threshold, not only will the triangle pattern be broken, but the RSI divergence will also become ineffective. At that point, there may be a sharp decrease in the number of active addresses, accompanied by profit-taking or exit actions from large investors – especially whales. This is the "red zone" that analysts need to closely monitor.

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