Is Bitcoin Repeating the Tragedy of 2021? Is $92K the Final Landing Point?

Bitcoin surged above $105,000 during the European trading session on Tuesday morning, bouncing back from a prolonged loss throughout the week after falling below six figures for the first time since May. However, according to technical expert Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend), this recovery may only be temporary. Bitcoin Reflects Year 2021 On the parallel charts of the current cycle and supply from 2021-2024, the analyst argues that Bitcoin is "the exact same pattern - rise, a peak, fall back, second peak", followed by an ABC correction sequence that in 2021 only hit the bottom after a deeper second sell-off. "The instinct to say no," he told viewers when asked if last Friday's sell-off marked capitulation. "We have been talking about this ABC since March... everyone is calling for new lows; I say no, we have five waves at the top, we have an ABC and then we go - and that's when the altcoins take off."

The basic case of his currently envisions a gentle bounce back towards the range of $107,000–$108,000— the level where the trendline projected from two peaks after the halving intersects—before a final fall pushes the price into what he calls the "pain box" wedged between the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.702 and 0.618 of the entire recovery from the breakout level of $58,000 last October. In 2021, that area finally fell to exactly the 0.618 level, a move that he believes could be repeated, implying spot levels in the range of $96,500 to $92,000. "This measurement aligns with the current parameters... if it wants to reverse and break out, then that would be great," he acknowledged, "but there is still a very high chance that this is not the end." Internally, the analyst analyzes the current fall as wave C developing of a larger flat, breaking down into a classic five-wave impulse. He notes that the third wave seems to be complete; the fourth wave "could increase", giving altcoins a short-term price surge, "but hopefully, sooner or later, we will reverse again." He cited the fractal in July 2021, when Bitcoin bounced back 20% before sliding one last time, as a psychological pattern. He remarked that "When there is a major news narrative event," "we will have a bit of relief - everyone thinks that everything is over - then bam, one more thing scares retail investors." He argued that the macro sentiment remains fragile. The gap of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at $92,000 is attracting "average-retail" buy orders, a setup he describes as a "washing machine" in which professional money pours into liquidity just to make it fade. "Retail is just a washing machine, you know... that buy order will not be filled," he warned. However, he still reaffirmed his long-term optimism, revealing that he had "smashed some buy orders" during the fall on Monday and advised his followers to dollar-cost average—"not financial advice"—throughout the tumultuous period. The price target for Quantum Ascend for the next impulsive rally is relatively limited: $132,000, a level he noted has "two pieces of confluence" and will coincide with the "altcoin moment" when Bitcoin's dominance is finally broken. "Ultimately we will return close to the peak of this Wave B... flag a bit, then explode," he predicted, referring to the so-called "Trump fever" in November 2021 that sparked a multi-sector altcoin rally. Currently, traders are monitoring the range of 0.702–0.618 and the resistance ceiling set at $108,000. The analyst stated that if Bitcoin breaks through the support without a temporary bounce back, then the sell-off could end "sooner rather than later," paving the way for what he calls "the coming months—our moment." In the closing section, he urges viewers to "grow up, live through it," but also admits his clear excitement: "I feel really good about where we are." Whether the market shares his confidence may become clear when the final judgment of wave C appears—perhaps, he hopes, this week.