Onchain Data of XRP Shows Why $3 is Still Out of Reach

XRP ( XRP ) has been consolidating in a tight range from $2.05 to $2.33 over the past 30 days as the $3.00 level remains elusive. Key data points explain why the XRP price is stuck in the consolidation process, including decreasing network activity of the XRP Ledger, falling open interest, and weak technical factors. The Activity of the XRP Ledger Network is Falling The XRP Ledger has experienced a significant fall in network activity over the past six months. Onchain data from Glassnode shows that daily new addresses on the network are much lower than the peak of 15,823 reached on January 16, 2025. Only 3,500 new addresses were created on Thursday.

Similarly, the number of daily active addresses (DAA) on the network has fallen sharply to 34,360 on Thursday from a 3-month high of 577,000 on Saturday, signaling a decline in interest or lack of confidence in the short-term outlook for XRP.

Traditionally, a fall in network activity often signals an impending stagnation or price decrease, as lower trading volumes reduce liquidity and buying momentum. Open Interest Fall Reflects the Stagnation of XRP Price According to data from CoinGlass, XRP's inability to reach the $3 level is further supported by the fall in the number of open interest (OI). The chart below shows that the open interest of XRP has fallen by 30% from $5.53 billion to $3.89 billion, indicating that investors are closing positions with the expectation that the price of XRP will decline.

Historically, significant falls in open interest have preceded price drops in XRP. For example, the current scenario reflects the price drop of XRP in January, leading to a 53% decrease to a multi-month low of $1.61 on April 7 from a multi-year high of $3.40 in January. XRP Price Held Back By Moving Average Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of XRP is stuck below the main resistance zone between $2.22 and $2.40. This is where all the major simple moving averages (SMA) are currently located. If the XRP bulls do not push the price above the SMA, this altcoin could consolidate below these trend lines for a few more weeks. Each time the XRP price broke below these trend lines, it traded sideways for 30 and 65 days before sweeping through lower levels before breaking out in an upward direction, as shown in the chart below.

"XRP price continues to struggle at the $2.25 level," XRP trader and analyst CasiTrades said in a post on X on Wednesday, adding: "As long as this resistance level remains, the likelihood that we will break through lower levels will increase: $2.01, $1.90, even $1.55 is still possible." This aligns with the descending triangle analysis, indicating a potential fall of 45% to $1.20 if the support level at $2.00 is lost.

The RSI index has fallen to 51 from an overbought level of 81 on January 20, indicating that bearish momentum is increasing. Additionally, XRP's price dropping below $3 in 200 days could be a precursor to a strong rally up to $10, similar to the previous strong rally in 2017.